We had three films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Foxcatcher

Bennett Miller is one of the most consistent Oscar names in recent memory. With two films, he’s quietly amassed a reputation of guaranteed Oscar acclaim. He may still end up like Jason Reitman whose fourth film failed to live up to expectations, but for Miller, project #3 is shaping up to be another Oscar contender.

Based on a true story about a wealthy man played by Steve Carell who starts a wrestling studio wherein he hopes to train legendary sportsmen. When he comes across an strong new prospect (Channing Tatum), he goes all out to try to secure his new protégé’s success even if it requires questionable and deplorable tactics. Working against him is Tatum’s brother (Mark Ruffalo) who wants his brother’s success, but doesn’t want to go to the lengths required to win.

In 2005, Miller’s Capote rode a wave of acclaim for star Philip Seymour Hoffman’s sure Oscar winning performance (one that pales in comparison to Toby Jones’) and nabbed five Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress (Catherine Keener). Six years later, his second film took on baseball from a backroom perspective, exploring statisticians and their influence on the game. The film, Moneyball, was a surprise hit with Oscar voters who gave it six nominations. While Miller didn’t make a Best Director showing, the film was nominated for Best Picture, Actor (Brad Pitt), Supporting Actor (Jonah Hill), Adapted Screenplay and Sound Mixing.

We’re now three years beyond that and Foxcatcher has strong reviews (not as universally positive as Capote or Moneyball). The film is already circling a Best Picture nomination and its three stars are being heavily discussed for mention. Mark Ruffalo would appear most likely. The Best Supporting Actor race is fairly light this year, giving him plenty of room to maneuver. Best Actor, on the other hand, is incredibly crowded. That means Steve Carell isn’t going to have an easy time getting nominated. Worse off is Tatum who’s said to produce good work, but may face trouble when people can’t decide where to put him (though, the trailers suggest that Carell should go support and Tatum lead).

The film could end up with a screenwriting nomination, but the stiff Best Director competition may keep Miller out of there. Best Picture seems like a strong possibility, but relies on more year-end titles failing to pass muster.

The Homesman

Tommy Lee Jones’ second feature as a director puts two-time Oscar winner Hilary Swank at the front of a cast of women escaping the harshness of the west guarded by the miserable drifter played by Jones. Oscar winners, nominees and also-rans pepper the cast including John Lithgow, James Spader, Hailee Steinfeld and Meryl Streep.

With a cast like this, Oscar is sure to pay attention, isn’t it? Not necessarily. Jones’ first film was an acclaimed modern western that saw critics heap praise on it. The Three Burials of Malquiades Estrada had significantly better reviews, but it didn’t face a Best Actress slate as weak as this year’s. Swank has to be considered a contender for her strong central performance even if the rest of the film seems destined to be ignored.

Still, if the trailer is any indication, the film may not be as high quality as those who push her for consideration would suspect. The response from MetaCritic professionals has been good, but not spectacular. This may mean the trailer isn’t a very indication of the film’s quality. Still, with few outright raves and an Oscar landscape that is looking for sure things, I think Swank may be the film’s only chance and even her grip on a nomination is tenuous.

Rosewater

Comedian and political junky Jon Stewart has earned heaps of praise and tons of Emmys for his Comedy Central program The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Earlier this year, he took a sabbatical to film his feature debut, a look at a Canadian journalist tortured and interrogated by the Iranian government under suspicion that he’s a spy.

Starring Gael Garcia Bernal, the film was supposed to give Stewart a new platform for his political ideologies and, to an extent, that’s exactly what happened. However, along the way, the story didn’t pick up steam the way many expected and it has since fallen behind in the competition for Oscar glory.

Good, but not great, response from critics has likely doomed the project, especially with such bigger competition this year. He’s now a long shot for a Best Picture nomination and Bernal has no hopes in the absurdly crowded Best Actor field. Kim Bodnia or Haluk Bilginer might have a better chance in the less thick Best Supporting Actor field, but ultimately the film is going home empty handed as it’s unlikely to barrel through the critics’ prizes to pick up the kind of steam it would require to become a major player.