We had three films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Dark Waters

Todd Haynes has a rich history with the Academy, nabbing nominations for all but three of his previous films (Poison, Safe, and Wonderstruck). That said, he’s only directed seven movies previously, so he’s just a little over 50%.

Dark Waters is a bit of a departure for Haynes who has traditionally gone after films with unique color palettes or are otherwise surreal in nature. This film is very much a down-to-earth, exploration of corporate malfeasance. It’s the kind of subject matter the Academy has loved in the past, but which has not gained traction this go around.

The film has received solid reviews, but has been virtually ignored by the precursors. That suggests the film is struggling to catch on. Ultimately, it could put Haynes into the full 50-50 category with his films.

The Aeronauts

The Aeronauts has all the spectacle needed to be a major Oscar player. The story of a balloonist who teams up with a weatherman to try and use hot air balloons as a mean of predicting the weather, has all the earmarks of a historical biopic looking to bring attention to an unheralded figure.

Starring Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne and Oscar nominee Felicity Jones (both earning their first recognition for The Theory of Everything), the film is directed by up-and-coming talent Tom Harper (Wild Rose). It has stunning design work and has even made the semifinalist list for the Academy’s Visual Effects award.

The biggest issue for the film is its mediocre reviews and unimpressive box office. While it’s possible the film will make the shortlist for the Visual Effects Oscar, critics have not been rallying around the film and it’s possible that most of the guilds won’t either. If that comes to pass, it could be left out in the cold.

Marriage Story

Director Noah Baumbach has been quietly emerging as a key figure in the indie cinema world, having directed several acclaimed films since his fourth film in 2005, The Squid and the Whale. That film earned him his first nomination for Original Screenplay.

His subsequent directorial efforts, including Margot at the Wedding, Greenberg, Frances Ha, Mistress America, and The Meyerowitz Stories have earned strong reviews, but have not been seen at the Oscars. This brings us to Marriage Story, which might have followed the same trajectory, but has emerged as one of the films most likely to dominate the acting categories at this year’s Oscars.

Stars Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Laura Dern are all strong contenders for nominations as is the film itself. Baumbach is struggling as a directing contender, but could easily pull that off with nominations in five other top categories.