We had five films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Nightmare Alley

Guillermo del Toro’s colorful remake of thriller Nightmare Alley sounds, on paper, like the perfect material for Oscar contention. Much like The Shape of Water, Del Toro seems to be on a mission to take the genres of the past and modernize them for younger audiences. The Shape of Water did so with the creature feature and Nightmare Alley does so with the film noir style.

Del Toro’s approach to filmmaking has always been one that seeks to bring vivid excess to the big screen. While that didn’t become evident until Hellboy in 2004, his subsequent films have been nothing if not visual marvels. Pan’s Labyrinth is a coming of age tale wrapped in the guise of a horror film, Pacific Rim is big budget disaster film in the vein of Godzilla, and Crimson Peak is a twist on the haunted house horror genre.

His films have a unique and popping visual style and that eye for detail helped Pan’s Labyrinth pull in six Oscar nominations, taking home three for Cinematography, Production Design, and Makeup. Hellboy II pulled in a surprise Best Makeup nomination, which it lost. Pacific Rim was shortlisted for Best Visual Effects, which didn’t translate into an Oscar nomination even if BAFTA did recognize it. Crimson Peak was on a lot of predictions lists, but ultimately earned nothing. The Shape of Water dazzled with thirteen Oscar nominations, winning four, including Best Picture and Best Directing alongside Original Score and Production Design.

Nightmare Alley seems poised to follow that film into the Oscar nomination books, but how far it goes remains to be seen. It may be a case of bird-in-the-hand syndrome that it’s been talked about so much that it’s impossible not to see it getting a Best Picture nomination, but the directing and acting categories as well as Adapted Screenplay seem less likely. Even without Best Picture, it will surely earn nominations (or be in the running for) Original Score, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Sound. It could do better than that as the reviews haven’t been nearly as bad as some might have suggested.

Spider-Man: No Way Home

One thing Disney has struggled with that Sony hasn’t is Oscar attention for its superhero films. From the beginning, Spider-Man has been an Oscar player. The original picked up nominations for Sound and Visual Effects while the second film managed three nominations for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects, winning for Best Visual Effects. The third film was nominated for visual effects at BAFTA, but not at the Oscars.

Yet, the subsequent films were completely ignored, including the two prior Tom Holland efforts. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse changed the conversation again winning almost every award under the sun before taking the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. Will this new multiverse-hopping blockbuster continue in that vein or fade from Oscar attention as quickly as it arrived. The film will certainly appear on the Visual Effects shortlist and may be in contention for Best Sound, but both categories have a lot of competition this year. I could imagine it scoring a Visual Effects citation, but I could just as easily see it ignored. It’s hard to say for certain at this juncture.

The Lost Daughter

Actor Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut, The Lost Daughter, started off Oscar season very strong, earning citations from the Gotham Awards, including their Best Feature award. Things were going swimmingly as it picked up several nominations from various groups, but the Spirit Awards, ostensibly designed to honor films like The Lost Daughter, ignored Olivia Colman in spite of nominating it for four other awards. That snub might suggest all is not well for the film.

Part of the problem could be that the film has aged poorly in the precursor race. That early momentum from the Gotham wins faded very quickly and Colman has struggled to earn the level of acclaim she did for her prior nominated performances. The film has only won one prize outside of the Gotham Awards and that was for Jessie Buckley’s Supporting Actress prize from the Boston Society of Film Critics. The film has earned a couple of runner-up citations, but has only managed 5 Best Picture nominations so far, 3 nominations for director Gyllenhaal, and a demonstrably better 8 for Colman. The film still seems to be in play, but its fortunes have faded just enough to make it a potential question mark.

The Tender Bar

While The Lost Daughter got a lot of initial attention, The Tener Bar released far too late in the year, which may have hindered its chances. Reviews of the film have been mediocre, marking yet another flop for director George Clooney. The film is about the coming of age of a young man who learns his life lessons from his bartending uncle played by Ben Affleck. Tye Sheridan, Lily Rabe, and Christopher Lloyd also star.

With the mediocre reviews, the otherwise strong notices for Affleck don’t seem to be having much of an impact. He and the film have yet to show up on any nominations list, which will hinder any case Affleck has of becoming a surprise Oscar nominee. Still, he can’t be counted out yet. It’s still got the Screen Actors Guild to bring his name back into the conversation, but it might just be too late now to build much in the way of momentum.

Cyrano

The reviews are slowly trickling in for Joe Wright’s lavish re-adaptation of the classic story of Cyrano de Bergerac, the Frenchman who helped another man woo the woman of his dreams because he wasn’t the kind of figure for whom she could fall in love. Peter Diklage takes on the role of Cyrano in this musical version of the story. Haley Bennett plays Roxanne, the subject of his affection with Kelvin Harrison Jr. as the one he helps court her. Ben Mendelsohn and Bashir Salahuddin co-star.

Wright is a visually striking filmmaker as his movies have a certain panache that many filmmakers can achieve, but few of whom can do so with effortless charm or inventiveness. Wright’s films have been Oscar contenders before four of his films scoring nominations. Pride & Prejudice was his first, picking up four nominations including Keira Knightly in Best Actress along with nominations for score, production design, and costume design. His second film, Atonement, nabbed the same nominations, albeit with the acting in support rather than lead, but then improved on that with three more for Cinematography, Adapted Screenplay, and Best Picture. It was the first of his films to win an Oscar, which went to Dario Marianelli for his score. Skip ahead to his film Anna Karenina, which pulled in the score, production design, and costume design citations alongside one for cinematography. It won the prize for costume design. His next Oscar contender was Darkest Hour, which once again scored a load of nominations, this time six. Best Picture was again on the list as were mainstays production design and costume design. Cinematography made the cut as well, but for the first time, he didn’t get a score nomination. Instead, he picked up first-time nominations for Makeup & Hairstyling and lead actor Gary Oldman. Oldman and the film’s makeup were Oscar winners.

Historically, his chances at Oscar nominations are good. While it’s difficult for him to earn Best Picture nominations, production design and costume design are a given. Those are the only categories his Oscar-nominated films are always chosen in. Cinematography seems less likely this year with all the competition, but score is a distinct possibility again. Makeup & Hairstyling and Original Song, by the nature of the effort, could be in play as well. The next big question is whether Dinklage can finally earn an Oscar nomination. He was worthy enough for The Station Agent, but since then, he’s managed to win several Emmys, four to be exact. This is the kind of role that’s earned the likes of Gerard Depardieu and José Ferrer nominations. Ferrer won. This could be yet another nomination for this particular character and I wouldn’t be surprised, though the competition right now is rather fierce.