We had two films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

West Side Story

Steven Spielberg has been an Oscar mainstay for years now. His first nominations came in 1975 when his blockbuster (a term coined because of the film’s success) Jaws nabbed a Best Picture nomination. Outside a handful of misses, his movies always account for at least a small number of nominations. This year, though, there are three factors that could affect West Side Story‘s chances: box office performance, its status as a re-adaptation, and its reception by critics.

What bolster’s the film’s chances is how well critics have embraced the film. Precursor season is in full swing and it’s already nabbed numerous citations across the board, putting the film in play in numerous categories. What hinders its chances are the mediocre box office the film has so far taken in, which might be bolstered by the upcoming Christmas bonanza. The other factor is the been-there-done-that factor of being a re-adaptation of the hit Broadway musical. The 1961 original, directed by Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins, the first co-directors to win an Oscar for Best Directing, scored eleven Oscar nominations, one of the highest tallies to that time and most certainly one of the highest ever attained. Its win rate was even more historically significant. Until The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King it had the highest per capita win rate of any film earning more than 10 nominations.

With a popular original, some will question whether it is wise to attempt to strike lighting twice. While critics seem to see it as a success, Oscar voters are another matter. Can it come close to the 11 citations the original received? It’s entirely possible. Can it match the number of wins? That’s significantly unlikely. Not only have few films managed to get close to double-digit wins in Oscar history, but in recent years, it’s even less likely to take up more than a half dozen wins in total. There are other factors, such as competition, but those factors won’t be well known until we get deeper into Oscar season. For now, it’s still a major player.

Being the Ricardos

There’s something about Aaron Sorkin’s films that appeal to Oscar voters. His movies, which are heavy with dialogue, have done incredibly well historically with the Academy. Of the ten films Sorkin has written for the big screen, all but one (Malice) have landed Oscar nominations, even if his first personal citation wasn’t until his fifth outing. Of the nine films to receive nominations, a hefty six of them have been acting nominations, while writing was a citation in four of them. Four also got Best Picture nominations, though none of them have won.

This is a positive sign for Sorkin as a screenwriter and one of the actors from the film, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball is looking to be the most likely there. Yet, the reviews have been positive, but not overwhelmingly so and the critics haven’t been giving the film very much love at all. That makes a Best Picture nomination less likely, though not impossible. The film also has the period advantage, which could push it into categories like Production Design and Costume Design. As Sorkin’s third film that he’s directed, the past performance of his prior two efforts, Molly’s Game and The Trial of the Chicago 7 may be indicative. The former earned one nomination for Sorkin’s writing while the latter earned six nominations. In both cases, he lost every single one. That’s not to say Being the Ricardos will follow suit, but I can’t see anywhere that the film stands a strong chance of victory and more than a half dozen nominations seems unlikely with no fewer than two a real probability.