We had two films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

When is a film franchise not an Oscar contender? When it doesn’t star Robert Downey Jr. That may change this year when the sole Avengers-associated superhero movie makes a play for several Oscar nominations.

It’s rather interesting to look at the history of the Disney-owned Marvel Universe and how particular Oscar voters are when they recognize it. To date, there have been nine films in the franchise including this weekend’s top opener. Of the prior eight films, half of them have gotten Oscar nominations. Was it the CGI-beast of The Incredible Hulk; the vast CGI visuals of Thor or Thor: The Dark World; or the rich period detail and impressive visual effects of Captain America: The First Avenger. Not a one of them. Apart from the rogue Sound Editing nomination the first Iron Manearned, this franchise has never existed outside of the Best Visual Effects category and those nominations come from all three Iron Man films and The Avengers.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier has tons of visual effects, but places itself firmly in the property damage milieu of the Iron Man-featured films. There’s destruction in Hulk, but the film didn’t exactly earn plaudits from critics. The Thor films employed far too many artificial environments and very little in the modern, terrestrial space (though, they still had plenty). The first Captain America took part in the past, so the visual effects were less noticeable. This time, Winter Soldier takes place entirely in the present tense with lots of flying objects and property destruction. That should give it just the boost it needs without other Avengers-featured films in the race to get a leg up. However, that’s certainly no guarantee.

The Unknown Known

Errol Morris is a well respected documentarian. He’s put together some of the most acclaimed non-fiction films in the business. So, why is The Unknown Known not a slam dunk Oscar nominee? The truth is that in spite of his intense popularity among documentarians and critics, he, like Alex Gibney, isn’t an Oscar favorite. Gibney’s received two Oscar nominations and one trophy while Morris has only gotten one of each.

Consider the fact that two of his most acclaimed films: Gates of Heaven, The Thin Blue Line, A Brief History of Time, Fast, Cheap and Out of Control and Mr. Death were never nominated for the Oscar shows you how out of touch the Academy is. Perhaps he’ll start getting more recognition with the Academy’s removal of restrictions on how many new members in each branch can be invited to join will help bolster their numbers (it already has); however, even larger numbers don’t mean recognition if there are a lot of new and respected documentary filmmakers in the competition.

The unusual subject matter, Donald Rumsfeld, may be another nail in the coffin of his chances this year. The film’s getting strong notice’s, but honoring a film that casts a spotlight on one of the most loathed figures of the Hollywood elite, may not be the best moves even if it is a bold one. That said, even difficult topics aren’t off-limit for the Academy and I think their ignorance of his past work is more likely to keep him out of the Oscars next year than any controversial subject matter might.