As the precursor awards continue unabated through the month of December, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (this will be in place of my prior weekly article “Oscar Preview”. Most of the major guilds announced this past week, so there’s a lot of great results to talk about.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 8

Tue., Jan. 14 – Cinema Audio Society Nominations
Thu., Jan. 16 – ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINATIONS
Thu., Jan. 16 – Broadcast Critics Awards (Live on The CW)
Fri., Jan. 17 – Sound Editors Guild Nominations
Sat., Jan. 18 – Screen Actors Guild Awards (Live on TNT/TBS)
Sun., Jan. 19 – London Critics Awards (guesstimate)
Sun., Jan. 19 – Producers Guild Awards

Big Winners

Captain Phillips had a terrific week picking up multiple nominations from the guilds, including prominent picks from the Directors Guild of America, Writers Guild of America, American Society of Cinematographers and the American Cinema Editors. Those mentions pretty much solidify it as a Best Picture nominee and will also secure its placement in several categories resulting in a high nomination tally at the Oscars.
American Hustle was one of only two films to win multiple awards at the Golden Globes, which included its two actresses and the film in Comedy/Musical Picture. Whether this portends strong things for the Academy or not remains to be seen, but it has been showing up in all the normal guild locations, so its a certain nominee in many categories.
Saving Mr. Banks did pretty well, perhaps not as well as it could have, but after a few missteps early in the season, it picked up several guild mentions making it likely to show up in several creative categories and that guild love may also translate into Best Picture nominations.
Dallas Buyers Club secured nominations from several guilds, including a surprising mention for Period Costume Design from the Costume Designers Guild. With a prior mention from the Writers Guild of America, it’s clearly on the radar. It will receive acting nominations for sure (two Golden Globe awards along with the various precursor awards show its prominence), but could also show up in Best Picture with wide-ranging support.
August: Osage County isn’t exactly a winner this week, nor is it a loser. The film needed some guild support to give it a chance at the Oscars, but it could only manage an American Cinema Editors nomination. However, that ACE nod is a good sign since Best Editing is one of the best corollaries to the Best Picture winner at the Oscars and the ACE help feed Best Editing (though it won’t show up on the five-slot Oscar list).
The Wolf of Wall Street has been regularly showing up with the guilds in spite of its stumble through the critics awards. That alone means it will be a multi-Oscar nominee, but Leonardo DiCaprio’s win in Best Actor at the Golden Globes show that it has some strong support and he could make it in over others, including Joaquin Phoenix or Christian Bale.

Big Losers

Chiwetel Ejiofor needed a Golden Globe win to increase his visibility for 12 Years a Slave, but lost out to Matthew McConaughey whose big year at the movies may well translate into an Oscar nomination and even an Academy Award. Ejiofor has won the lion’s share of precursors, but this loss is far too public and with SAG also likely heading towards McConaughey, it may not be his year.
Robert Redford has gotten very little attention this year and has been left off more times than he’s been included. With a lost at the Golden Globes, who love veterans of stage-and-screen, his chances for an Oscar nomination are likely low because of lacking support.
Christian Bale may or may not be nominated for an Oscar, but his recent win will certainly mean he doesn’t take home the Oscar. Still, in a category like Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical, a Best Picture-dominant film should have pulled along more than two actors.