Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, Week 5

As the precursor awards continue unabated through the month of December, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (this will be in place of my prior weekly article “Oscar Preview”. There were no precursors this past week, so there are no real winners or losers. The box office might just have an impact on the Oscars, but more on that in my article later today.

This coming week, though, we begin hitting the major guild precursors (other than the Screen Actors Guild who announced earlier in December. It’s only the Producers Guild and the Writers Guild, but they are two of the big guilds to watch. The Producers Guild has a tendency to pick the most popular films of the year, but also does a good job picking out the smaller efforts that are contending. Expect at least one film (like The Hobbit or The Hunger Games) to show up on their list and have no chance at an Oscar nominations, but everything else they nominate should be considered prime contenders for nominations. They will nominate ten films, however, so they won’t exactly line up with the Oscars.

The Writers Guild on the other hand, has a few rules that will prevent some of the nominees from making it through. Namely, films must be made under a WGA contract, meaning even WGA members who write scripts outside the chain (like John Ridley’s 12 Years a Slave) won’t be eligible. Also exclude animated films since the WGA doesn’t handle contracts for animation. That eliminates a large swath of potential nominees, so it will be interesting, but always watch for the threats coming from outside the guilds.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 6

Tuesday, Dec. 31 – Vancouver Critics Nominations (guesstimate)
Tuesday, Dec. 31 – Dallas Area Critics Awards (guesstimate)
Tuesday, Dec. 31 – Southeastern Critics Awards (guesstimate)
Thursday, Jan. 2 – Producers Guild Nominations
Friday, Jan. 3 – Writers Guild Nominations
Saturday, Jan. 4 – National Society of Film Critics Awards (guesstimate)
Monday, Jan. 6 – Vancouver Critics Awards (guesstimate)

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