Oscar Preview: Precursor Winners & Losers, Week 13

As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

This was the week that Oscar season took some strange, unexpected turns.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 14

Tuesday, Feb. 12 – Academy Awards Voting Begins (Official)
Wednesday, Feb. 13 – David di Donatello Awards (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Saturday, Feb. 16 – Audio Society (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 16 – Make-Up Artists Guild (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Feb. 17 – Sound Editors (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Feb. 17 – Visual Effects Society (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Feb. 17 – Writers Guild (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Feb. 17 – Satellites (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

Big Winners

Roma had been struggling at the various guild awards and had been looking a bit weak, but then it managed to take Best Film at BAFTA, which gives it the best boost it could possibly have going into the Oscars.
Leave No Trace wasn’t nominated for Adapted Screenplay, but it sure came out a winner this week when it managed to top an expected Oscar winner at the USC Scripter awards.
Green Book may not be doing great this Oscar season, but it did manage to pick up the prize from AARP, which definitely fits its demographic. On top of that, Mahershala Ali managed to beat hometown boy Richard E. Grant at BAFTA and that’s a sure sign of his Oscar dominance.
Cold War managed to pull out a big win at the American Society of Cinematographers awards topping expected Oscar winner Roma. While it didn’t win at BAFTA, it could be a surprise winner at the Oscars, though it’s still unlikely.
Rami Malek might not have seemed like a frontrunner at the beginning of the season, he now looks like nothing but.

Big Losers

The Favourite was running strongly at BAFTA and then lost the top award to Roma. It also dominated the Online Film & Television Association awards. However, it still doesn’t quite feel like the juggernaut these successes would suggest.
Roma losing out at the American Society of Cinematographers awards is a reason for concern as it confirms a recent trend of the film failing to perform well anywhere but the critics and the DGA. Thus, it’s a winner and a loser this week.
If Beale Street Could Talk has taken a hit numerous times this season, from its failure at the Oscars to its continuing losses everywhere since. The film managed to lose an expected award from the USC Scripters and went home empty-handed at BAFTA. The film now looks to have lost enough ground with the Oscars, that it will be lucky to win the three awards for which it has been nominated.

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