As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

It was a fairly big week for the precursors with the Visual Effects Society (VES), American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE), Online Film & Television Association (OFTA), and British Film & Television Arts (BAFTA) awards all being given out.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 14

Tue. 20 – Academy Awards Voting Begins (Oscars) (Official)
Tue. 20 – Costume Designers (Awards) (Official)
Sat. 24 – Audio Society (Awards) (Official)
Sat. 24 – Make-Up Artists Guild (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had a wonderful weekend with its haul from BAFTA, a series of victories that have solidified its place in the race for Best Picture at the Oscars. The wins for Best Film and Best Original Screenplay have helped codify its lead in those categories, though one must always caution against the pronounced house effect BAFTA voters have had. However, looking over the winners, it seems that predilection isn’t as potent this year, so we could be looking at an Oscar rubber stamp in several races in Three Billboards‘ favor.
Get Out didn’t win anything at BAFTA, but it did manage to pull out a victory at the OFTA where it was named Best Picture of the year as well as Best Original Screenplay. While the OFTA doesn’t have a reputation as an unbeatable precursor, it’s easy to see their choices as potentially reflective of current sentiment.
Blade Runner 2049 had a good weekend at the OFTA, ASC, and BAFTA awards this weekend. Winning numerous awards at OFTA as well as the cinematography prizes from all three groups and even more wins at BAFTA, the film may not be in as rough of shape going into the Oscars as we once thought. It also managed a prestigious win at the MPSE awards, which is helpful if not fortuitous.
War for the Planet of the Apes dominated the VES awards, claiming almost everything in sight, which is par for this film series’ course as it won the VES prizes in its prior two outings as well.

Big Losers

The Shape of Water took a bit of a hit this weekend, losing out on several awards from every group. The ASC loss wasn’t unexpected, but failing to win major prizes at OFTA or BAFTA can’t help. The film did well enough, though, winning the Best Director prize from BAFTA, which should help in del Toro’s quest for the Oscars. Otherwise, it seems to not have the level of support one would expect from an Oscar frontrunner.
Get Out may have won several awards, but it lost where it counted: BAFTA. Those losses, especially Original Screenplay, may indicate the film is a weaker competitor than previously thought and while it could still make a play for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay, its chances have weakened.
Blade Runner 2049 had a great weekend, but it also got routed at the VES where it lost the big prizes, the ones that would have solidified its Best Visual Effects chances at the Oscars. Granted, BAFTA may have bolstered the film’s Oscar chances, but VES did not.
Mudbound went home empty-handed this weekend losing out on all of its major nominations, which may hinder the film’s chances of staging come-from-behind victories in Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.