As the precursor awards continue unabated through the month of December, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (this will be in place of my prior weekly article “Oscar Preview”. Today, we look back at the results of the New York Film Critics Circle, National Board of Review, Satellite Awards nominations, Spirit Awards nominations and the Producers Guild of America nominations. This is a healthy spread of award bodies from indie to big budget, and a nice broad spectrum of critics groups.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 2

Dec. 05 – Annie Award Nominations
Dec. 05 – Washington D.C. Critics Awards
Dec. 09 – Detroit Critics (guesstimate)
Dec. 11 – American Film Institute (guesstimate)
Dec. 11 – Boston Critics
Dec. 11 – Los Angeles Critics
Dec. 11 – New York Online Critics (guesstimate)

Big Winners

The Artist earned more nominations and awards than any other film from the various groups this week. It’s been a bubble film for some time, but it emerges as a serious contender for several nominations and possibly even a handful of wins.
Drive had been fading for some time, mostly due to its weak box office performance, but the critics groups haven’t forgotten it giving it several nominations and even a trophy for Albert Brooks.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 didn’t have the greatest showing, but after Warner Bros. massive push for the film, critics aren’t letting it slide by. The National Board of Review gave the franchise an award and put it in its list of best films of the year which is a pretty big boost for the film. With a likely nod from the Producers Guild of America, we could see some attention focused on giving the series a Best Picture nomination. Getting one is still a long way away, but it’s getting little boosts here and there.
Hugo picked up the National Board of Review prize and several other nominations from groups moving it into a stronger position for major nominations even if it may appeal more to critics than general audiences.

Big Losers

Albert Nobbs earned four nominations from the Satellite Awards, but didn’t figure in any others, including Best Actress with the Spirit Awards. Glenn Close’s passion may not be triggering the right interest.
The Descendants could have been like Sideways earning dozens of awards from critics groups. So far, it has been struggling to get noticed. Even the handful of nominations and awards its received have been surprisingly minimal.
J. Edgar was going to be one of the big awards contenders, but a slew of bad reviews have all but doomed the film. Still, it holds on in a number of groups’ lists and a late push by Warner Bros. could put it back in some races, but not as many as it could have.
The Tree of Life was supposed to follow in the footsteps of Terrence Malick’s The Thin Red Line and not his The New World. It needs some serious pimping from later critics awards and the Golden Globes to really bolster its chances in the race even with a handful of mentions from precursor groups this week.
Late openers are suffering with critics groups who haven’t quite had a chance to screen them. Although The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was shown the day before New York critics voted, it doesn’t appear to have made much of an impression. The same can be said for other major late releases War Horse and Young Adult. And so far, we’ve seen neither hide nor hair of Extremely Loud and Incredible Close.

Individual Analyses

New York Film Critics Circle

This group has made a major shift towards the middle. Although it picked a handful of specialty films, its appreciation for Moneyball and The Artist suggest they are looking more towards being an Oscar bellwether than an actual critics organization. The esoteric and clever selections they’ve made in the past are entirely absent this year. The most unusual award it gave was its special award to late Chilean filmmaker Raoul Ruiz whose Mysteries of Lisbon played at festivals this year.

National Board of Review

The NBR is still a bit bizarre in their choices, but they still drift into the mainstream. Picking Hugo wasn’t a necessarily brave move, but Tilda Swinton for Best Actress was the kind of thing the New York critics used to do. Still, with awards for Ensemble to The Help and a special visionary award to the Harry Potter franchise, they still have some populist underpinnings.

Producers Guild of America

Two projects nominated here are often mentioned as Oscar snubs: Beats, Rhymes and Life and Senna. Neither was on the shortlist for nomination with the Academy. Two other films in the PGA list were: Bill Cunningham New York and Project Nim, both of which are solid bets for Oscar nominations. But this is the weakest the PGA has been on that front in a few years.

Satellite Awards

Every year, just looking at these precursors gives you something to scratch your head over. Some of their choices are downright puzzling. Just look at their now-combined Best Actress slate. You have populist nominees Viola Davis and Meryl Streep competing against nominees most people haven’t heard about like Olivia Colman and Emily Watson. They aren’t the most accurate precursor, but they are nothing if not interesting to read.

Spirit Awards

With the Academy shifting its focus towards independent films in the last decade, the Spirit Awards have become an unexpected barometer for the Oscars and this year is no different. Big contenders like The Artist, The Descendants and Drive all figure prominently in this year’s nominations. Expect from two to four nominees in each category making strong runs for nominations, then after the Oscar nods are announced, you can probably pick every single winner of the Spirit Awards based on whether the nominee is also Oscar nominated.

Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association

Of all the film critics groups, this is one of the most mainstream there is, often picking films that the Academy also tends to favor. Their accuracy isn’t great, but it’s solid. Matter of fact, in the last two years, all five of their Best Film nominees have gone on to Oscar nominations. The same could hold true this year were it not for the likely Oscar no-show Win Win. Next to the Broadcast Film Critics Association, this could be the most accurate group of critics currently in the precursor business.