In our second week of review for this past Oscar season, we’re taking a look back at all of the precursors and who were the best and worst at predicting this year’s Oscars. Next week, we’ll cover the individuals highlighted in this weekly article going back to The War Horse Steven Spielberg who began this article series. For this week, I’m only looking at the winner predictions that came to fruition, I don’t have enough time to look at the nominee-to-nominee or winner-to-nominee ratio at this time.

Winners: The Guilds

Directors Guild of America The DGA has been on the top of the heap for decades, as they are the most accurate precursor that has ever existed. Their tradition continued this year with Michel Hazanavicius’ win and parallel victory at the Oscars. And has become increasingly obvious, the DGA winner is often a sign of where Best Picture is likely to go. The few times it hasn’t happened, it was Best Picture that went a different way and not Best Director, so even if they don’t always have Picture, they have Director.
Writers Guild of America They don’t always match up, especially considering their arcane rules about only WGA members being eligible for awards, but they correspond more frequently than not and this year was another example of a complete double-header.
Cinema Audio Society One of the more accurate precursors with increasing frequency, the Cinema Audio Society saw Hugo coming whereas their sound editing friends at the Motion Picture Sound Editors didn’t have the same predictive power.
Art Directors Guild They have three chances each year to get a match-up and they managed to go with the obvious choice of Hugo for their period award even if it could have gone the Fantasy route as well. And their Period award remains their most foreshadowing category.
Visual Effects Society It’s the first time a winner of the supporting visual effects award also took home the Oscar. Usually its their effects-driven winner that carries over. Regardless, their strong record continues with this victory even if it was in an unexpected category.
Screen Actors Guild While they didn’t get all five potential category alignments, three is fairly good, especially when one of them was an unexpected foreign victor that began a snowball effect that led to an Oscar. Streep’s loss for Best Actress can be attributed to A) the love the SAG voters had for The Help and B) the fact that Streep had won in the recent past. Their Best Cast-to-Best Picture ratio continues to swing wildly from year to year and only if the eventual Oscar Best Picture winner also has the largest ensemble will it typically triumph.

Mediocres: The Guilds

Annie Awards They have two chances each year to match the Oscars. Animated Feature and Animated Short Film. Their short film winner wasn’t even an Oscar nominee, so their chances rested in the basket of a live action director making his animation debut. While Steven Spielberg would have been the obvious choice, the Annie voters went with the Gore Verbinski western project.
Producers Guild of America Three categories now and the Producers Guild of America still struggles to rectify its spotty record. They are doing better with Best Picture, but in years when Pixar isn’t an obvious choice, they tend to drop the ball. The Documentary category is likewise tricky for the PGA simply because their choices so rarely correspond with the Oscar selections.

Losers: The Guilds

Costume Designers Guild Topping the list of losers this year is the Costume Designers Guild who had three opportunities to spread the love to an Oscar nominee, but failed utterly. They even had the Oscar winner nominated, so it isn’t like they didn’t have an option. But, if you think about the Costume Designers’ history, they don’t have the best overall track record.
American Cinema Editors Another guild that has multiple shots at picking the Oscar winner. This time, the American Cinema Editors did two things. The first was they chose the two Oscar Best Picture frontrunners, which ended up being folly. Second, they set up an interesting statistic with The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being one of the few films in Oscar history to win the Best Editing award without a Best Picture nomination and a guild win.
American Society of Cinematographers You can’t really blame the ASC for dropping the ball on this one. They chose the overwhelming critics’ choice (The Tree of Life picked up an impressive 21 precursor awards for Best Cinematography), but in the end, the Academy snubbed Terrence Malick, a director they aren’t absolutely in love with for a director they are: Martin Scorsese.
Motion Picture Sound Editors There are only two categories that have any typical alignment with Oscars. One is the Sound Effects/Foley category and the other is the ADR/Dialogue category. But neither film managed to carry over to Oscar (War Horse was nominated, but lost while Super 8 wasn’t even nominated). And yet, in a way, the Motion Picture Sound Editors did pick the Oscar winner. Hugo picked up the award for Sound Editing/Music in a Feature Film. It’s not a typical correlation, but has happened in the past, most notably with musicals. Still, we weren’t looking beyond the two aforementioned categories for an eventual winner, so in a way the MPSE is still a loser.

Winners: The Critics

London Critics This is probably the best London will ever do at predicting the Oscars. Their penchant for British films or at least films with international pedigrees tends to keep them away from winners lists each year, but Picture, Director, Actor and Foreign Film all went to non-Americans while Meryl Streep picked up one of her half-dozen prizes from London. They had a tie for Best Actress, so that helped them, but still five out of nine corresponding is excellent.
Broadcast Critics As much as I want to discount the BFCA for seemingly being more concerned with Oscar predictions than with critical analyses, they still have a fairly strong track record, getting 11 of 20 categories right, including a hefty slate of below-the-line categories. They also hold the distinction of being the only group to predict The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo for Best Editing.
Indiana Critics They’re one of the new kids on the block, but picking Picture, Director, Animated Feature and the Supporting awards, they managed to rack up a fairly solid 50/50 victory for the year. That’s pretty darned good for a critics group.
New York Online Critics Sometimes I wonder just what their goal is. They seem to want to be taken seriously as many of their winner selections in the recent past have indicated, but their choices this year almost seem like they are trying to take a swing at the Oscar prediction game as well. The only one of their six correct selections that wasn’t already a strong contender was Meryl Streep in Actress.
Washington D.C. Area Critics They were one of the first groups to pick a handful of winners and their impressive run led to the first prize for Octavia Spencer who only ended up with six prizes in the end. And picking up an award from a critics group for that kind of performance is fairly impressive. Of course the Washington D.C. area critics have tended more towards the mainstream in recent years, so that result should come as little surprise.
Phoenix Critics Only getting eight of eighteen correct may not seem like a very good statistic, but when you compare that to how most critics groups fare, that’s a pretty impressive number. Of course, they have more categories than any other critics group, which gives them more chances to fail, but their picks for Costume Design and Visual Effects were fairly forward thinking when they were announced. On top of that, Phoenix has always been an Academy-slanted demographic that lines up more often than most.

Mediocres: The Critics

Detroit Critics A fairly respectable total with only eight categories in which comparison can be drawn. Their selections of Picture and Director and Supporting Actor weren’t terribly forward thinking, but they were part of the herd.
Vancouver Critics Another solid, if unexceptional result with Picture, Supporting Actor and Foreign Film corresponding of their nine selections.
New York Critics Being first out of the gates has its benefits and its drawbacks. Sure, you start the conversation, but sometimes that conversation is wrong. While four out of ten is fairly good in a gorup of critics, their Actress pick was the only that would resonate as being a forward-thinking choice. Their selections for Picture, Director and Foreign Film would simply start the tide.
Dallas-Fort Worth Critics Another group whose four of eleven wasn’t particularly noteworthy, but they were among the first giving them a few bragging rights.
National Board of Review The National Board of Review is the most mainstream of the early releasers, which makes their selections of Animated Feature, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Foreign Film a bit less impressive when they have seven other categories that didn’t match up.
Las Vegas Critics Five out of sixteen is quite mediocre, but their pick of Best Original Song winner “Man or Muppet” is the only example of uniqueness among the critics groups, which gives them some bragging rights. The rest, Picture, Animated Feature, Actor and Original Score, aren’t really that impressive.
Utah Critics For being such a small group, predicting four out of twelve is fairly perceptive, but it was again in categories that many other groups got: Animated Feature, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Foreign Film.
Online Critics Four out of thirteen is nothing to sneeze at when you look at critics groups in general, but this year the number is a bit less impressive, especially when their match-ups were in categories like Animated Feature, Supporting Actor, Screenplay and Foreign Film. But come to think of it, the Supporting Actor prizes here and at Detroit, Vancouver and Dallas, are fairly against the grain considering how many groups picked non-nominee Albert Brooks.
Houston Critics There aren’t a lot of critics groups with Original Score categories, so they can be given some with their selection of The Artist in that category but only three of thirteen (Animated Feature and Screenplay being the others) isn’t all that impressive, but still better than many others.
St. Louis Critics Their four correct predictions were in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Music while ten other categories went without comparison. Not a great result, but better than the groups I’m selecting as losers this year.

Losers: The Critics

Boston Critics Getting three right might put them in the mediocre territory if they didn’t have so many categories they got wrong, including a tie in Music. Yet, Boston and the subsequent Los Angeles and San Diego groups are cusp finishers and only fall below the line because they correctly predicted so few. Boston, like many of these next groups, got some of the more expected categories right and out of thirteen categories, it’s not a very great result: Picture, Animated Feature and Music.
Los Angeles Critics They were one of the few to put down Christopher Plummer for Supporting Actor, so their results are given a bump, but unlike Boston, they disappointed by not going to expected route and picking the film shot entirely in their home town for Best Picture. No, the three of thirteen correct predictions were in categories in which The Artist didn’t win: Animated Feature, Supporting Actor and Art Direction.
San Diego Critics San Diego missed twelve predictions, but did manage to get three right: Picture, Original Screenplay and Art Direction. It’s not a stellar result, but at least they got more than a pair.
Austin Critics With only thirteen categories each, Austin and Chicago were on par with one another. Both groups have different groups for screenwriting, but where as more groups picked Foreign Film for the win than Original Screenplay, Austin gets the edge with the other corresponding winner as Animated Feature.
Chicago Critics Coming in just behind Austin, they got eleven categories wrong, but their corresponding Animated Feature and Foreign Film predictions weren’t as original as Austin’s.
Florida Critics They got twelve wrong with two correct selections for Adapted Screenplay and Art Direction. Not a complete embarrassment, but many others did better. And since this group has a history of going with the Oscar flow, the selections are indeed disappointing.
Toronto Critics They only have ten categories, so getting one-tenth of them is better than a lot of other critics groups. Their match was in Supporting Actor which is a bit more interesting a pairing than what National Society of Film Critics accomplished.
National Society of Critics Like Toronto, the National Society of Film Critics only predicted one of ten categories, but it was the sheep-like following of A Separation for Foreign Film that caused them to come in below Toronto on this list. Not that helping propel a critically acclaimed foreign film to an Oscar is anything to be disappointed with, but they weren’t the only ones and with few other foreshadowing selections, it’s really not as exciting as all that.
San Francisco Critics San Francisco does what it wants and this has been reflected in their unique selections for years, so being last on this list also has some benefit. They went with Animated Feature as their sole Oscar match in twelve categories, choosing to go completely different directions in the remaining eleven categories. So, while this is bad for setting them as a precursor, it’s good in terms of creating diversity in the precursor landscape.

Winners: The Others

Golden Globes They have long been thought of as a pseudo-precursor, making off-the-wall choices and hedging their bets in the dual-categoried fields of Drama and Comedy/Musical for Picture, Actor and Actress. But this year they managed an impressive 8 in 10 victories if you exclude the three doubled-up categories from counting twice. They got all three of those prizes in either Drama or Comedy/Musical plus the remaining acting awards, Screenplay, Score and Foreign Film. An impressive haul for them this year.
British Academy Twelve corresponding picks is nothing to sneeze at, but it still comes in second to the Golden Globes who had a stellar year this year. Still, BAFTA has turned into a regular must-win for a lot of actors. All seven of the top awards (Picture, Animated Feature, Director and the four acting prizes) were accurately predicted by BAFTA. Below the line was a bit more spotty with Music, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup and Sound its other selections. Only the Actress and Costume Design wins really pointed towards outcomes about which we weren’t already certain. Their 12 of 21 score is one of the best of the season.
USC Scripter They only have one category to predict, which makes them a little less valuable than the myriad others that have more awards, but they do a great job predicting in most years and carried through again this year.
Spirit Awards With a record of six of ten predictions, I might put them at the list if it didn’t feel like a one-off event. Having The Artist competing at the Spirit Awards gave them significant benefit in three of the six categories they got right. They also got Supporting Actor, Screenplay and Foreign Film correct. None of their choices were in places of any notable distinction.

Mediocres: The Others

Online Film & Television Association Once upon a time, the OFTA was one of the foremost predictors, but they’ve ceded the duty of predicting to others and have instead been focusing on honoring the best of the year where they can. I may not always agree with their choices, but there’s little doubt that they have more in common with critics groups than they do with groups whose members vote with their Oscar prediction roster instead of their favorites. The group still managed to predict six categories, all of which were common themes across the Oscar landscape: Picture, Animated Feature, Supporting Actor, Original Score, Art Direction and Foreign Film giving them 6 right out of 20 categories (with a tie in Animated Feature helping their total).

Losers: The Others

Satellite Awards Being the only legitimate precursor award among the losers in the Others section places the Satellite Awards squarely at the top of this list, largely because they should be doing better. Of course, those who hate precursors as predictors are likely glad for the variety the Satellites provide. They managed to predict Adapted Screenplay (like so many others), but were one of the only groups to pick Hugo for Best Visual Effects, so they at least have some claim to fame. But with 19 potentially overlapping categories, they really should have gotten a few more right (closing polls early probably also hurt their potential.
Grammys With a lengthy overlap with prior year eligibility, the Grammy Awards are probably the most useless precursor you could use. So, paying them much attention is par for the course. They got absolutely no winners correct.

Interesting Statistics: First Accurate Prediction

Picture: New York Critics
Animated Feature: National Board of Review
Director: New York Critics
Actor: Las Vegas Critics
Actress: New York Critics
Supporting Actor: National Board of Review
Supporting Actress: Washington D.C. Area Critics
Original Screenplay: San Diego Critics
Adapted Screenplay: National Board of Review
Original Score: Washington D.C. Area Critics
Original Song: Las Vegas Critics (first and only)
Editing: Broadcast Critics (first and only)
Cinematography: no precursor predicted
Art Direction: Washington D.C. Area Critics
Costume Design: Phoenix Critics
Makeup: Online Film & Television Association
Sound Mixing: British Academy
Sound Editing: no precursor predicted
Visual Effects: Satellite Awards
Foreign Film: New York Critics
Documentary Feature: no precursor predicted
Animated Short: no precursor predicted

Tallies

(4) New York Critics
(4) No Precursor Predicted
(3) National Board of Review
(3) Washington D.C. Area Critics
(2) Las Vegas Critics
(1) British Academy
(1) Broadcast Critics
(1) Online Film & Television Association
(1) Phoenix Critics
(1) Satellite Awards

Interesting Statistics: Most/Least Frequently Prophesied

(19/29) Best Animated Feature: Rango
(19/34) Best Picture: The Artist
(15/31) Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
(15/32) Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
(14/29) Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
(12/20) Best Original Score: The Artist
(12/32) Best Director: Michel Haznavicius
(10/15) Best Art Direction: Hugo
(7/24) Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
(7/34) Best Actor: Jean Dujardin
(6/31) Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
(6/35) Best Actress: Meryl Streep
(3/8) Best Costume Design: The Artist
(2/3) Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
(2/6) Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
(2/10) Best Visual Effects: Hugo
(1/7) Best Original Song: “Man or Muppet”
(1/12) Best Editing: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
(0/1) Best Live Action Short: The Shore
(0/2) Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books…
(0/4) Best Sound Editing: Hugo
(0/29) Best Cinematography: Hugo
(0/32) Best Documentary Feature: Undefeated

Interesting Statistics: Most Failed Predictions

(21) Best Cinematography: The Tree of Life
(15) Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks
(12) Best Actress: Michelle Williams
(9) Best Animated Feature: The Adventures of Tintin
(9) Best Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball
(8) Best Director: Terrence Malick
(8) Best Actor: George Clooney
(8) Best Documentary Feature: Cave of Forgotten Dreams
(8) Best Documentary Feature: Project Nim
(7) Best Actor: Michael Fassbender
(7) Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain
(7) Best Original Screenplay: The Artist
(6) Best Picture: The Descendants
(6) Best Director: Martin Scorsese
(6) Best Actress: Tilda Swinton
(6) Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley
(6) Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
(6) Best Foreign Language Film: The Skin I Live In
(5) Best Director: Nicolas Winding Refn
(5) Best Documentary Feature: Senna

Interesting Statistics: Predictions That Were More Predicted Than the Winners

(Does not include categories in which the winner was never predicted by any group)

Outright Beat the Oscar Winner

(12) Best Actress: Michelle Williams vs. (6) Meryl Streep / (6) Tilda Swinton
(8) Best Actor: George Clooney vs. (7) Jean Dujardin / (7) Michael Fassbender
(7) Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain vs. (6) Octavia Spencer / (6) Shailene Woodley
(4) Best Original Song: “Life’s a Happy Song” vs. (1) “Man or Muppet” / (1) “Lay Your Head Down” / (1) “Masterpiece”
(2) Best Editing: The Artist / (2) Senna vs. (1) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo / (1) 7 other films
(6) Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes / (1) Hugo / (1) Harry Potter

Tied the Oscar Winner

(15) Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks vs. (15) Christopher Plummer
(7) Best Original Screenplay: The Artist vs. (7) Midnight in Paris
(2) Best Sound Mixing: Drive / (2) Hugo