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Tomorrow’s the precipice over which we all drop. The Oscar nominations are a the beginning of the end of Oscar season. All things that came before will act only as information in the grand scheme of selecting winners. The nominations are sure to provide shocks and in a year like this, even the slightest bump could result in a newer roster than any of us predicted. Will there be ten nominations? Or 9 like the last two years? With so many well regarded films in competition, a full slate of ten would not be surprising, but fewer than 8 would.

Below are Peter, Tripp and my final predictions for the Oscar nominations. We’ve gone over the precursors with fine-toothed combs and we believe we have the answer…possibly. The Best Picture category is ranked according to our general predictions. 10 points was awarded to the film most likely to be nominated while 9 was assigned to the next most likely with 1 given to the least likely. Tripp believes 9 nominations will occur, Peter and I aren’t certain. I personally suspect that ten is the most likely number at this juncture. Looking over our predictions, there’s a lot of agreement and a fair amount of disagreement.

In less than an hour, my annual Oscar Morning article will post going into details about the nominations announcement tomorrow morning and providing a guide so you can follow along at home. It will also feature my rationale in the top categories.

For now, check out our predictions and see where we’re unified and where we differ the most. Peter chose not to submit predictions for the short film categories, though Tripp and I did. Enjoy Oscar Morning tomorrow and we’ll see you on the other side.


KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Prediction
(A) = August Predictions
(T) = Post-Telluride / Toronto Predictions
(N) = November Predictions
(D) = December Predictions
(F) = Final Updates

Best Picture

  • (30) 12 Years a Slave (10 A) (10 O) (10 T)
  • (27) Gravity (9 T) (9 A) (9 T)
  • (22) American Hustle (8 A) (6 A/D) (8 N)
  • (21) Captain Phillips (7 N) (7 O/F) [Return] (7 O/N)
  • (15) Her (4 D) (8 N) (3 D)
  • (14) Nebraska (5 D) (4 T) (5 O)
  • (12) The Wolf of Wall Street (6 O) (6 O)
  • (10) Inside Llewyn Davis (3 O) (5 O/N) (2 O/N)
  • (8) Dallas Buyers Club (1 F) [New] (3 O/T) (4 F) [New]
  • (4) Philomena (2 D) (2 A)
  • (2) Saving Mr. Banks (1 O) (1 A)

Best Animated Feature

  • The Croods (O) (O) (F) [New]
  • Despicable Me 2 (O) (F) [New]
  • Ernest & Celestine (F) [New]
  • Frozen (O) (O) (O)
  • Monsters University (O) (O) (O)
  • The Wind Rises (O) (O) (O)

Best Director

  • Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity (WL T) (PP A) (TB N)
  • Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips (WL D) (PP O/F) [Return] (TB O/F) [Return]
  • Spike Jonze – Her (PP D) (TB D)
  • Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave (WL T) (PP O) (TB T)
  • David O. Russell – American Hustle (WL N) (PP O/D) (TB N)
  • Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street (WL O)

Best Actor

  • Bruce Dern – Nebraska (WL O/D) (PP T) (TB O)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street (WL O/F) [Return] (TB D)
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave (WL A) (PP O) (TB T)
  • Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips (WL D) (PP O) (TB O/D)
  • Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (WL O) (PP O) (TB N)
  • Robert Redford – All Is Lost (PP A/F) [Return]

Best Actress

  • Amy Adams – American Hustle (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB D)
  • Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine (WL A) (PP A) (TB A)
  • Sandra Bullock – Gravity (WL T) (PP T) (TB N/F) [Return]
  • Judi Dench – Philomena (WL A) (PP O) (TB A)
  • Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks (WL T) (PP O) (TB A)

Best Supporting Actor

  • Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips (WL N) (PP N) (TB N)
  • Daniel Bruhl – Rush (WL D) (PP A) (TB T/F) [Return]
  • Bradley Cooper – American Hustle (WL N) (TB D)
  • Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave (WL A) (PP O) (TB T)
  • James Gandolfini – Enough Said (PP F) [New]
  • Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club (WL T) (PP T) (TB N)

Best Supporting Actress

  • Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine (TB A/F) [Return]
  • Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle (WL N) (PP D) (TB D)
  • Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave (WL T) (PP T) (TB T)
  • Julia Roberts – August: Osage County (WL O) (TB D)
  • Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station (PP A/N/F) [Return]
  • June Squibb – Nebraska (WL T) (PP T) (TB N)
  • Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler (WL N) (PP T)

Best Original Screenplay

  • American Hustle (WL A) (PP A/D) (TB T)
  • Blue Jasmine (WL A) (TB T)
  • Dallas Buyers Club (WL F) [New]
  • Her (WL N) (PP D) (TB T)
  • Inside Llewyn Davis (WL A) (PP O) (TB N)
  • Nebraska (PP N) (TB T)
  • Saving Mr. Banks (PP T)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • 12 Years a Slave (WL A) (PP O) (TB T)
  • Before Midnight (WL A) (PP O) (TB T)
  • Captain Phillips (WL F) [New] (PP A) (TB F) [New]
  • Philomena (WL D) (PP A) (TB T)
  • The Wolf of Wall Street (WL A) (PP O/D) (TB N)

Best Original Score

  • 12 Years a Slave (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • All Is Lost (F) [New]
  • The Book Thief (F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Captain Phillips (PP F) [New]
  • Gravity (F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Monsters University (TB F) [New]
  • Philomena (F) [New] (PP F) [New]
  • Saving Mr. Banks (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Best Original Song

  • Amen – All Is Lost (WL F) [New]
  • Atlas – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
  • Happy – Despicable Me 2 (PP F) [New]
  • I See Fire – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (PP F) [New]
  • In the Middle of the Night – Lee Daniels’ The Butler (TB F) [New]
  • Let It Go – Frozen (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Moon Song – Her (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Ordinary Love – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Young and Beautiful – The Great Gatsby (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Best Editing

  • 12 Years a Slave (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • American Hustle (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Captain Phillips (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Gravity (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Rush (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Wolf of Wall Street (WL F) [New]

Best Cinematography

  • 12 Years a Slave (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Captain Phillips (PP F) [New]
  • The Grandmaster (TB F) [New]
  • Gravity (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Her (PP F) [New]
  • Inside Llewyn Davis (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Nebraska (WL F) [New]
  • Prisoners (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Best Production Design

  • 12 Years a Slave (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • American Hustle (WL F) [New]
  • Gravity (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Great Gatsby (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Her (PP F) [New]
  • The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (TB F) [New]
  • Saving Mr. Banks (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Best Costume Design

  • 12 Years a Slave (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • American Hustle (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
  • The Great Gatsby (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Invisible Woman (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Oz the Great and Powerful (TB F) [New]
  • Saving Mr. Banks (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • American Hustle (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
  • Dallas Buyers Club (PP O) [New]
  • The Great Gatsby (PP O) [New]
  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (WL O) [New]
  • Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
  • The Lone Ranger (TB O) [New]

Best Sound Mixing

  • All Is Lost (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Captain Phillips (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Gravity (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Inside Llewyn Davis (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
  • Iron Man 3 (WL F) [New]
  • Lone Survivor (WL F) [New]
  • Pacific Rim (TB F) [New]
  • Rush (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Best Sound Editing

  • All Is Lost (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Captain Phillips (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Gravity (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Lone Survivor (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Man of Steel (WL F) [New]
  • Pacific Rim (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Rush (PP F) [New]

Best Visual Effects

  • Elysium (PP O)
  • Gravity (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
  • The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
  • Iron Man 3 (WL O) (TB O)
  • Pacific Rim (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
  • Star Trek: Into Darkness (WL O)
  • World War Z (PP O) (TB F) [New]

Best Foreign Language Film

  • The Broken Circle Breakdown (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Grandmaster (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
  • The Great Beauty (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Hunt (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Missing Picture (WL F) [New]
  • The Notebook (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Omar (TB F) [New]

Best Documentary Feature

  • 20 Feet from Stardom (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Act of Killing (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Armstrong Lie (WL F) [New]
  • Blackfish (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Square (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Stories We Tell (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
  • Tim’s Vermeer (TB F) [New]

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • CaveDigger (WL F) [New]
  • Facing Fear (TB F) [New]
  • Karama Has No Walls (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • The Lady in Number 6 (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Prison Terminal (WL F) [New]
  • Recollections (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • SLOMO (TB F) [New]

Best Animated Short Film

  • Get a Horse! (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Gloria Victoria (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Hollow Land (WL F) [New]
  • The Missing Scarf (WL F) [New]
  • Possessions (TB F) [New]
  • Requiem for Romance (TB F) [New]
  • Room on the Broom (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Best Live-Action Short Film

  • Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me) (TB F) [New]
  • Dva (Two) (WL F) [New]
  • Helium (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Kush (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?) (TB F) [New]
  • Throat Song (WL F) [New]
  • Tiger Boy (TB F) [New]
  • The Voorman Problem (WL F) [New]

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