For some, one of the most confusing aspects of predicting the Oscars is understanding their somewhat convoluted method of tabulations. While their preferential balloting is strange enough, Best Picture is a wholly other matter. To help you understand the process as simply as possible, I’m going to do my best to demystify the whole experience.

Let’s start with figures. Everything is based on how many votes are submitted. There are 5,873 members in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and while they vote in the categories over which their individual branches preside, they all nominate for Best Picture. For ease of tabulation, let’s say that 5,500 members submit ballots for Best Picture.

Step 1: Accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) takes the ballots and separates them into piles based on the film listed in first place. Members may submit up to 5 titles in order of preference, but the first place vote is the most important.

Step 2: Taking the number of ballots submitted, they divide this by the number of slots available for Best Picture plus one. So, with our figure of 5,500, we divide that by 11 (10 + 1) and get 500. Whatever the result is, the figure is rounded up.

Step 3: Any film that reaches this magic number is automatically a Best Picture nominee. Ballots for these are set aside. If the film’s tally exceeds the magic number by 20% (600 total votes in this scenario) or more, that film remains a nominee and the voters’ ballots are redistributed to the remaining film piles based on their second place choice (or third place if the second place choice is already a nominee, and so forth). This is called the Surplus Rule and is meant to be used when a #1 selection is incredibly popular in order to give other films a chance at a nomination. I’ve read in some places that there’s a weight applied to these surplus ballots, but I cannot seem to find any corroboration of this.

Step 4: Once the Surplus Rule ballots are distributed, those films that hit the magic nomination (500) threshold are set aside as well.

Step 5: Here’s where things get a little tricky. Every film with less than 1% of the total vote (in our scenario, that number is 55) is immediately disqualified. Their votes are then redistributed upward.

Step 6: The next title on each of those ballots that hasn’t already been disqualified (or already become a nominee) is identified and each ballot is distributed accordingly.

Step 7: To become a nominee, a film must have at least 5% of the total vote (current scenario: 275). It’s possible in a diverse field that more than ten films could be eligible, but presumably only the ten top vote getters would get the nomination.

PwC believes that applying these rules to prior contests would have resulted in anywhere between 5 and 10 films nominated each year, so they don’t likely envision a scenario where more than ten films get 5% or more of the vote. However, in a year with no major consensus, it could be possible to have 5% and not get nominated.

Now, let’s move on to an example with numbers:

EXAMPLE:
Let’s say Films A through Z (26 titles) are the only ones with first place votes.

After the ballots are separated, here’s what they look like:

1. In this scenario, Film A and Film B are automatic nominees (they each topped 500 votes). These ballots are set aside.
2. Film A, exceeding that threshold by more than 20% (600), triggers the Surplus Rule.
3. Those 830 ballots are redistributed based on the second-place vote on each ballot. If the second-place film doesn’t already have a stack, the ballot’s third-place choice and so forth is examined until it’s either set aside entirely or redistributed.

After the Surplus Rule is activated and Film B ballots have been set aside, the new tallies might look like this:

4. Films C & D have reached the 500 threshold and are set aside as nominees.
5. The accountants then take all films that received below 1% of the vote (55) and take them out of the competition.
6. Films T, U, V, W, X, Y & Z all have fewer than 55 votes and are separated from the rest. The second place votes are examined and redistributed to the remaining films A through S. If second place happens to be assigned to Films A through D or T through Z, the third-place film is selected and so forth. Some ballots might not be redistributed at this point, but that’s too bad.
7. With all the ballots reassigned, counting ends. Any film that has received 5% or more of the total vote (275) is declared a Best Picture nominee.

The final round of tabulation is complete, so here’s how things could look:

8. There you have it. The Best Picture nominees in this example are Films A, B, C, D, E, F, H, and K.