Category: Wrap-Up

2022 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: March

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

March 4, 2022

The Batman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s hard to say how Warner Bros. will do now that they’ve stopped forcing day-and-date on their features. This should be an interesting test, though it’s fascianting how few wide release are coming out in the typically more lively March.”
Box Office Results: $369.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] The DC character that is most likely to win at the box office is Batman even though Superman also does well. It’s no surprise the film was a success, but this is a huge tally for a March release.

March 25, 2022

The Lost City

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Give audiences a good action-adventure romance film and they’ll show up. The question is will this be good enough to summon people to the box office.”
Box Office Results: $105.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] A more expected tally for a March release, the $105 million box office pull for an original comedy is solid even if it’s just barely so.

2022 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: February

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

February 4, 2022

Jackass Forever

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Whether or not this franchise can withstand the pandemic box office decline, the series has done quite well with audiences who apparently like mindnumbing entertainment.”
Box Office Results: $57.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] By this point, it could no longer be said that the pandemic was a depression on the box office. Spider-Man had already proven that where there’s a will, there’s a way. This film did reasonably well, not perhaps as well as its predecessor, but well enough to pay plenty of dividends for the participants.

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2022 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: January

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

January 7, 2022

The 355

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. This film has been held back longer than it should have and its concept isn’t likely to liven up the January box office.”
Box Office Results: $14.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] During the winter months, when COVID-19 infections were surging, it was rare for a movie to do well, especially one without a built-in audience like this one.

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2021 Oscar Season Box Office Wrap-Up: December

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

December 3, 2021

Wolf

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. If this is truly releasing wide, it has little hope of doing well as the concept is far too strange to be a hit.”
Box Office Results: $0.147 M
Thoughts: [Flop] As with many indie films that are initially listed as wide releases, this one ultimately released in limited runs and still didn’t manage to make much of an impact.

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2021 Oscar Season Box Office Wrap-Up: November

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

November 5, 2021

Eternals

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film will surely compete in Sound and Visual Effects categories if nowhere else.”
Oscar Results: Flop. In spite of making the shortlist for Best Visual Effects, the only category it had much of a shot in, it came up empty-handed.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. With the box office starting to rebound, Disney has done tremendously well getting audiences to the theater for films like Shang-Chi, so I expect this one should do fairly well.”
Box Office Results: $164.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] This result, while solid, is unimpressive in terms of Marvel releases.

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2021 Oscar Season Box Office Wrap-Up: October

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

October 1, 2021

The Addams Family 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. The first film failed to score an Oscar nomination and sequels struggle a great deal, so don’t expect it.”
Oscar Results: Now None. The film couldn’t overcome the Academy’s aversion to sequels, especially sequels to films that weren’t nominated in the first place.
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first animated film scored nearly $100 million in its outing two years ago. The pandemic has changed the box office a bit, so it might struggle to reach that threshold, but kids’ films have been faring better than addult entertainment lately, so it’s possible to equal out.”
Box Office Results: $56.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Trying to make this into a longrunning animated series of films doesn’t seem to be in the cards thanks to the mediocre numbers the sequel has pulled in.

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2021 Oscar Season Box Office Wrap-Up: September

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

September 3, 2021

Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While the MCU has done decently in the past scoring Oscar nominations, their product hasn’t always made the case, but this film certainly could due to its more fantastical elements.”
Oscar Results: Success. It managed to make the nominations ballot in exactly one category: Best Visual Effects.
Box Office Prospects: $170 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Black Widow managed to pull in over $170 million at the box office, which means Marvel is still good, even in a pandemic, for drawing people to the theater. That said, attendance has been dropping ever since, so this might be wishful thinking.”
Box Office Results: $224.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] The only genuine success for the entire month of September, usually a fairly respectable one at the box office. Marvel seemed to be able to draw people in to theaters in such a way that few others have been able to.

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2021 Blockbuster Season Box Office Wrap-Up: August

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

August 6, 2021

The Suicide Squad

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The first film was nominated for, and won, an Oscar for Best Makeup & Haristyling. Lightning isn’t likely to strike twice, but we will see.”
Oscar Results: Still Uncertain. It’s on the shortlist for Best Makeup & Hairstyling and the original won the award, so it’s still possible for it to get nominated.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first Suicide Squad made over $325 million, but the Harley Quinn-focused Birds of Prey made $85 million thanks to the rise of the pandemic. The pandemic is still in play, so it might not be able to come close to the original, but we shall see.”
Box Office Results: $55.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The Suicide Squad sequel didn’t have any defense for its poor showing. Sure, the pandemic was still raging, but everything else that released around it seems to have done just fine. Clearly no one was enthralled by the prior outing enough to make the second one a hit.

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2021 Blockbuster Season Box Office Wrap-Up: July

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

July 2, 2021

The Boss Baby: Family Business

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $140 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a surprising success, so a sequel was put into the works. Now, it’s out and it will show us just how well the post-pandemic box office is working. I’ve taken that into consideration and lowered my estimate to try and get closer to expected numbers.”
Box Office Results: $57.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The pandemic box office wasn’t kind to this film, but then again it looked rather insipid, which might have hindered its outcome.

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2021 Blockbuster Season Box Office Wrap-Up: June

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

June 4, 2021

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The box office has yet to see a full return to its prior glory, especially for horror films. The Conjuring series is one of the more consistent performers, so we might see with this film whether audiences are ready to return yet.”
Box Office Results: $65.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For a pandemic-era release, this result isn’t half bad, though it underperforms the series by a lot.

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2021 Blockbuster Season Box Office Wrap-Up: May

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

May 7, 2021

Wrath of Man

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Even when there isn’t a pandemic going, Jason Statham films don’t do terribly well. I expect even worse during a pandemic.”
Box Office Results: $27.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] No one really expects much from Jason Statham at this point. He lucks into good roles in blockbusters with others to bolster his box office performance, but usually flops when acting on his own. The pandemic might have hurt the box office generally, but even this seems low.

May 14, 2021

Spiral

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. A steady performer during normal times, horror films have been even less successful during the pandemic. Attempting to reboot a once-popular series miight not work out right now.”
Box Office Results: $23.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Horror has been the most injured by the pandemic and this is yet another in a series of painful flops for the industry. Sequels can do well, but Saw had run its course and not many are that hyped about more chapters.

May 21, 2021

I Carry You With Me (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film is starting in limited and then expanding the following week. It’s not the kind of film that needs a platform release nor does it need a wide release. It could do well, but it’s highly doubtful that it will.”
Thoughts: Moved to June

May 28, 2021

Cruella

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film has solid prospects in Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling with a victory in Costume Design likely.”
Oscar Results: Still Good. While the Oscars are still months away, my opinion of the film’s chances haven’t changed a bit.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The second major Hollywood blockbuster push of the year, a late-pandemic release, it’s uncertain exactly how well it will perform, but Disney must expect decent returns if it’s going ahead with a release.”
Box Office Results: $86.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it didn’t quite hit the expected $100 million mark, the film did quite well for an early return-from-pandemic box office.

A Quiet Place: Part II

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. The first film scored a Sound Editing nomination. Not only does that category no longer exist, but sequals usually underperform their predecessors at the Oscars, so I wouldn’t expect anything this time around.”
Oscar Results: Still Doubtful. I struggle to see it holding out until Oscar time with so many other potential Sound nominees in evidence.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Horror has taken a major hit during the pandemic and it’s not certain if it will rebound as quickly as blockbusters like Godzilla vs. Kong. We’ll see how things go, but I wouldn’t expect the huge success of the original.”
Box Office Results: $160.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] If you saw this total at a non-pandemic box office, you wouldn’t be surprised. That it managed this tally during a depressed box office period is a huge success.

2021 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: April

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

April 2, 2021

The Unholy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Some theaters are starting to re-open in California and New York, but even in areas of the country where they previously opened, box office hasn’t re-energized yet. This isn’t the kind of film you go see in a pandemic, though, so it probably won’t do too well.”
Box Office Results: $15.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] What might have been a modest box office success before the pandemic is now an unqualified failure.

April 9, 2021

Voyagers

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. A sci-fi spectacle that deals with mind control agents in a liquid might be a bad fit in theaters when people are getting vaccinated left, right, and center. I suspect that might not endear it to many, though young adults flaunt requirements more than older cinemagoers, so it might do ok.”
Box Office Results: $3.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] This teen sci-fi film didn’t look very appealing to a broad cross-section of the population and the serious flop at the box office confirmed that notion.

April 16, 2021

Mortal Kombat

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While prior attempts to get fighting video games of the 1980s to earn box office dollars have been rather muted, in a country where people are slowly emerging from the pandemic and theaters are re-opening, this kind of movie might just be the distraction to get them further along.”
Box Office Results: $42.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] At the pandemic box office, this result has to be seen as modestly successful, though in terms of traditional box office performance, it’s not.

2021 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: March

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

March 5, 2021

Boogie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The pandemic box office is still in full swing and as last week’s weak debut for Judas and the Black Messiah showed, films with minority characters, especially in hard-hit (pandemic) populations, aren’t willing to risk their safety for a movie.”
Box Office Results: $4.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It was always a long shot for a box office bonanza, but even then it shouldn’t have released wide as this anemic take attests.

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2021 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: February

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

February 12, 2021

Judas and the Black Messiah

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. With February being the last month to release movies for Oscar consideration this year, due to the pandemic, a lot of major contenders are finally making their way to cinemas. This one had some early buzz, but that buzz hasn’t really gone anywhere of late.”
Oscar Results: Winner. Not only did the film manage to break out in a strong way when Oscar nominations were announced, its two starts scored nominations with Daniel Kaluuya winning as expected while the original song “Fight for You” surprised with a victory.
Box Office Prospects: $12 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This would be the kind of film that might turn out to be a sleeper hit at the early February box office, but the pandemic is still going and its chances are probably minimized because of the simultaneous streaming release that Warner Bros. is forcing on them.”
Box Office Results: $5.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] What should have been a better performer in a non-pandemic box office performed adequately given the constraints of cinema at the time.

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