Category: Monthly Previews

2022 Oscar Season Box Office Preview: October

Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

October 7, 2022

Amsterdam

Premise: From IMDb: “Set in the ’30s, it follows three friends who witness a murder, become suspects themselves, and uncover one of the most outrageous plots in American history.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The prospects of a David O. Russell film at the box office seems in direct proportion to its Oscar buzz…Joy barely had any and it didn’t do well whereas his prior films did and did great. So, since this one seems to be on the low end of Oscar expectations, so go the box office predictions.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. It skipped the festival circuit, which isn’t a good sign and early reviews have been all over the place. I suspect that the film might end up skipped, though some craft category considerations might be possible.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

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2022 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: April

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

April 1, 2022

The Contractor

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There’s no evidence to support this type of film or this actor (Chris Pine) is enough of a box office draw to overcome the familiarity and low key nature of the film itself.”
Box Office Results: $1.03 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The film was positioned to take advantage of the strange perception that Chris Pine is a box office draw. He’s never been and this pretty much proves it.

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2022 Oscar Season Box Office Preview: September

Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

September 2, 2022

Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.

Premise: From IMDb: “In the aftermath of a huge scandal, Trinitie Childs, the first lady of a prominent Southern Baptist Mega Church, attempts to help her pastor-husband, Lee-Curtis Childs, rebuild their congregation.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There will be a segment of the population that will flock to this, but will it be a large enough batch of attendees to turn it into a surprise hit? Seems doubtful.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

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2022 Oscar Season Box Office Preview: Introduction

With the box office starting to rebound from the pandemic and a number of films becoming blockbusters at higher levels than in recent years, it’s easy to say that the revival is in full swing. As such, there are a ton of new movies on the immediate horizon, especially in the next four months. While the number of titles that are certain to be Oscar contenders is much smaller than we’re accustomed to, indie cinema hasn’t quite revived, and so it could be difficult to guess what’s going to play with Oscar because they are reticent about scheduling. We’ll see how well this list holds up as more and more titles assert their presence in the competition.

To introduce you to the upcoming films, there will be two preview articles every month and this introduction every four months. The Season Preview article will focus on one of three seasons Spring Season (January through April), Blockbuster Season (May through August) and Oscar Season (September through December). In these introductory articles, I will give you the current release schedule for the specified season, which may change as the release dates get closer.

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2022 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: March

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

March 4, 2022

The Batman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s hard to say how Warner Bros. will do now that they’ve stopped forcing day-and-date on their features. This should be an interesting test, though it’s fascianting how few wide release are coming out in the typically more lively March.”
Box Office Results: $369.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] The DC character that is most likely to win at the box office is Batman even though Superman also does well. It’s no surprise the film was a success, but this is a huge tally for a March release.

March 25, 2022

The Lost City

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Give audiences a good action-adventure romance film and they’ll show up. The question is will this be good enough to summon people to the box office.”
Box Office Results: $105.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] A more expected tally for a March release, the $105 million box office pull for an original comedy is solid even if it’s just barely so.

2022 Blockbuster Season Box Office Preview: August

Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

August 5, 2022

Bodies Bodies Bodies

Premise: From IMDb: “When a group of rich 20-somethings plan a hurricane party at a remote family mansion, a party game turns deadly in this fresh and funny look at backstabbing, fake friends, and one party gone very, very wrong.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Good. It’s been a long time since a horror film so effectively targeted teens, so this would could do quite well, but it has stiff competition.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

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2022 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: February

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

February 4, 2022

Jackass Forever

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Whether or not this franchise can withstand the pandemic box office decline, the series has done quite well with audiences who apparently like mindnumbing entertainment.”
Box Office Results: $57.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] By this point, it could no longer be said that the pandemic was a depression on the box office. Spider-Man had already proven that where there’s a will, there’s a way. This film did reasonably well, not perhaps as well as its predecessor, but well enough to pay plenty of dividends for the participants.

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2022 Blockbuster Season Box Office Preview: July

Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

July 1, 2022

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Premise: From IMDb: “The untold story of one twelve-year-old’s dream to become the world’s greatest supervillain.”
Box Office Prospects: $280 M
Expectations: Excellent. The first Minions movie outperformed all but the second film in the Despicable Me series. At $363 million, it gives us an idea of how this second film might perform. That said, the third Despicable Me came out after and there was a noticeable drop. With uncertainty about family attention at the box office, I’m going a bit conservative with this prediction.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. The Academy hasn’t shown much interest in this franchise, so I doubt we’ll see it in the Oscar nominations.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

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2022 Spring Season Box Office Wrap-Up: January

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

January 7, 2022

The 355

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. This film has been held back longer than it should have and its concept isn’t likely to liven up the January box office.”
Box Office Results: $14.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] During the winter months, when COVID-19 infections were surging, it was rare for a movie to do well, especially one without a built-in audience like this one.

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2022 Blockbuster Season Box Office Preview: June

Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

June 3, 2022

Watcher

Premise: From IMDb: “A young woman moves into a new apartment with her fiancé only to be tormented by the feeling that she is being stalked by an unseen watcher in an adjacent building.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. This film looks like one of those horror thrillers that disappoints when released wide.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

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2021 Oscar Season Box Office Wrap-Up: December

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

December 3, 2021

Wolf

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. If this is truly releasing wide, it has little hope of doing well as the concept is far too strange to be a hit.”
Box Office Results: $0.147 M
Thoughts: [Flop] As with many indie films that are initially listed as wide releases, this one ultimately released in limited runs and still didn’t manage to make much of an impact.

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2022 Blockbuster Season Box Office Preview: May

Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

May 6, 2022

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Premise: From IMDb: “Dr. Stephen Strange casts a forbidden spell that opens the doorway to the multiverse, including a alternate versions of himself, whose threat to humanity is too great for the combined forces of Strange, Wong, and Wanda Maximoff.”
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Expectations: Excellent. The first film pulled in $232 million. After six years, that number is sure to go up, but will it be enough to surpass the original when adjusted for inflation? It’s not certain.
Oscar Prospects: Good. After Spider-Man: No Way Home, the multiverse is likely to be a Visual Effects powerhouse for the MCU.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

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2022 Blockbuster Season Box Office Preview: Introduction

If you didn’t think Hollywood was back and firing on all cylinders, this blockbuster season’s offerings are bound to prove it. Things start off with a bang with the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the second Doctor Strange movie. It’s sure to do far better than its three predecessors. Following that is the remake of Firestarter, the cinematic Downton Abbey sequel, and May finishes off with Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick.

June is next up and that starts off slow, but picks up with the one-two punch of Jurassic World: Dominion followed by Pixar’s latest, Lightyear. July doesn’t want to be left behind, so the lucrative Fourth of July holiday weekend sees the release of Minions sequel followed by another MCU film, Thor: Love and Thunder. The month rounds out with DC League of Super Pets, spaced just enough after Minions to be consequential. Then August closes out with nary a guaranteed blockbuster, but with a handful of films that could surprise like The Man from Toronto, which is my pick for the sleeper hit of the month.

And, as that film points out, there are several other films this summer that aren’t part of a franchise or aren’t remakes of other films. The likes of Elvis, Where the Crawdads Sing, Nope, or Bullet Train being big hits is possible in perhaps every case.

A quick note, actual stills from Thor and Toronto weren’t available. The pic from Thor is a pre-vis photo and the Toronto is also a publicity shot. Once I have film images to share, I’ll update these.

To introduce you to the upcoming films, there will be two preview articles every month and this introduction every four months. The Season Preview article will focus on one of three seasons Spring Season (January through April), Blockbuster Season (May through August) and Oscar Season (September through December). In these introductory articles, I will give you the current release schedule for the specified season, which may change as the release dates get closer.

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2021 Oscar Season Box Office Wrap-Up: November

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

November 5, 2021

Eternals

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film will surely compete in Sound and Visual Effects categories if nowhere else.”
Oscar Results: Flop. In spite of making the shortlist for Best Visual Effects, the only category it had much of a shot in, it came up empty-handed.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. With the box office starting to rebound, Disney has done tremendously well getting audiences to the theater for films like Shang-Chi, so I expect this one should do fairly well.”
Box Office Results: $164.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] This result, while solid, is unimpressive in terms of Marvel releases.

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2022 Spring Season Box Office Preview: April

Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

April 1, 2022

The Contractor

Premise: From IMDb: “After being involuntarily discharged from the Marines, James Harper (Pine) joins a paramilitary organization in order to support his family in the only way he knows how.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. There’s no evidence to support this type of film or this actor (Chris Pine) is enough of a box office draw to overcome the familiarity and low key nature of the film itself.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.



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