There’s one new wide release, one expanding feature, and one re-release headed to the box office this weekend and while the re-release of Avatar is likely to top the charts, Don’t Worry, Darling being the only new wide release is likely to come in above Moonage Daydream, a documentary about David Bowie.
Our Highest Rated Films: Don’t Worry, Darling, Carmen
Our Best Awards Ratings: No consensus.
OTHER LIMITED RELEASES
Moonage Daydream (Expands Wide)
Blank (Limited)
Buried: The 1982 Alpine Meadows Avalanche (Limited)
Control (Limited)
Cuando Sea Joven (Limited)
Give Me Five (Limited)
The Infernal Machine (Limited)
Invisible Demons (Limited)
On the Come Up (Limited)
Petrov’s Flu (Limited)
The Railway Children (Limited)
Section 8 (Limited)
Young Plato (Limited)
A whole herd of new releases stamped this weekend’s box office. Currently, there are four new wide releases and one expansion headed for cineplexes. While it’s possible a couple of those might end up with more limited releases, of the ones we know for certain will stay wide (Clerks III, which is expanding; See How They Run and The Woman King), Viola Davis’ film has the strongest hand to play. That said, if Pearl goes wide, it could be a surprise hit since inventive horror sometimes does quite well.
The prospects for this weekend’s box office are not particularly great. Three new wide releases hope to break through the morass of old releases in hopes of finding an audience. Horror, Bollywood, and period dramas are on top and none of them look terribly promising. Barbarian likely has the best chance, an average horror film that piques an interest that often does moderately well with audiences. Bollywood hasn’t had as much success, so Brahmastra isn’t likely to come out on top. Then there’s Medieval. Without a major name to pull audiences to the theater, don’t expect it to do terribly well.
There’s only one new wide release this weekend and after the anemia of the prior frame, Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. has a clear path towards victory. That is if it can overcome the re-release of Jaws and Spider-Man: No Way Home. It’s Labor Day weekend, so the likelihood of any film doing really well is low.
With two new wide releases, neither with the best prospects at huge openings, Three Thousand Years of Longing seems the better bet to win out over The Invitation and that could also mean the top spot at the weekend box office.
There aren’t a lot of options this weekend for huge openings, so between Beast and Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, Beast seems the more likely to top the other, but neither are compelling box office contenders.
This weekend will have a few questions associated with it. 1) Can Bullet Train avoid a huge second weekend plunge and will that be enough to overcome a weak set of new releases? 2) Will Diane Keaton still be able to open a geriatric comedy at the top of the box office in spite of such a hackneyed premise? 3) Will the wide expansion of horror film Bodies Bodies Bodies be able to ride solid reviews to a number one finish? It’s hard to say what answers we’ll get as it’s just as possible that the opposite answers are true, but I suspect the answers are 1) Bullet Train will get a solid second-week hold, but it won’t be enough to top the box office. 2) Keaton is not going to have a good weekend as her film fails to appeal to the youth demographic, but it will still have modest support from Keaton fans and seniors. 3) The originality of the Bodies Bodies Bodies idea should be enough to boost it to the number one finish in a tight competition with Bullet Train.
With the soft debut of DC League of Super Pets, the opportunity for Bullet Train to top the charts this weekend is high. It doesn’t need much. It’s nearest competition is Easter Sunday, which isn’t likely to do boffo business at the box office.
In spite of its clear inferiority, the DCEU films continue to do quite well at the box office. Whether this film is going to tie into the live-action films is currently unknown, but it’s sure to play at least decently well among audiences with young children and DC completists.
Only one new wide release and it’s Jordan Peele’s third feature film, Nope. The trailers give away the gimmick behind the film, which doesn’t make it as appealing as it should be, but Peele’s films have a certain appeal and that will mean it can do well at the box office? Can it beat the third weekend of Thor: Love and Thunder? It’s probable, especially since the film had a steep second-week drop of 68%. Jordan Peele’s two prior films, Get Out and Us opened to $33 million and $71 million respectively. Both of those numbers would likely win out the weekend. Both films topped out at $175 million, so this film will need to perform appreciably closer to that to be considered a hit.
When there’s a guaranteed blockbuster on release, there’s generally no competition. When there’s no defined box office leader, there are usually several release. There are three coming out wide this weekend, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank, and Where the Crawdads Sing. Mrs. Harris doesn’t seem like the kind of film that can be the weekend’s top new release, which puts the competition between the other two releases. Paws of Fury looks incredibly bad, but animated films are often box office strongmen even when bad, so it could top out. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest Where the Crawdads Sing could surprise. That said, I’m only about 39% confident of that, so take it with a grain of salt. Thor: Love and Thunder will undoubtedly have a second week at the top.
Thor: Love and Thunder is set to take the summer by storm. It’s poised to claim this weekend’s top spot, but will it do so enough to be the year’s biggest debut? It’s possible, though unlikely. I could even see it claiming less than $100 million.
While there are two features releasing this weekend, only one of them has box office potential and that’s the sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru. The Despicable Me franchise has proven very popular, especially thanks to its pint-sized yellow hench-creatures. None of the top four entries this weekend hitting $31 million, Minions is very likely to top the charge and could do so approaching a $100 million tally, which is what the first Minions film did even if it’s well above the highwater mark for the Despicable Me films.
After a disappointing opening for Lightyear, both of this week’s new releases have a shot at topping the charts with Elvis having a slight edge over The Black Phone. The former tackles the life story of a beloved musical icon. The latter is a horror film. In a sea of disappointing box office returns for horror films, it’s possible it could falter out of the gate. Then again, it looks to be more inventive than a lot of recent disappointments, so it could do well.
There will be no stopping Lightyear being the weekend’s top release even Jurassic World: Dominion in its second week will struggle to keep up.