The two best contenders for a #1 finish this weekend couldn’t be more different. Charlie’s Angels is a reboot of the popular TV show and its successful first adaptation. This one doesn’t have the bigger names like its predecessor film did, but it still has a lot going for it. On the other side of the coin is Ford v Ferrari, a racing drama about the attempts at Ford to stop Ferrari for eternally dominating racing. The two films are targeting vastly different audiences and while I suspect Ford v Ferrari will give the Angels a run for their money, I think, in the end, that Charlie’s Angels will eke out a narrow victory.
Our Highest Rated Films: The Report, Ford v Ferrari, The Good Liar, Waves
Our Best Awards Ratings: Ford v Ferrari, Waves, The Report, The Good Liar, White Snake
OTHER LIMITED RELEASES
All Rise
Atlantics
Autonomy
Enai Noki Paayum Thota
Everbody’s Everything
Hollywould
The Hottest August
I Lost My Body
Jhalle
Mickey and the Bear
Recorder: The Marion Stokes Project
Scandalous
Sequestrada
The Shed
Somewhere Winter
The Turkey Bowl
This weekend features a mass of new releases with all four having a near-equal chance of topping the box office. Doctor Sleep has the Stephen King aspect, which could bolster its bottom line, though Pet Sematary is probably an example of why that won’t work. Last Christmas is releasing way too early to be of much impact. That leaves Midway and Playing with Fire, both are in genres that have been known to produce strong box office debuts. The big weakness for Midway is that Roland Emmerich hasn’t been a box office draw in years. The big weakness for Playing with Fire is that the concept is a bit too childish to draw traditional comedy fans. In the end, I suspect Midway has the best chance simply because it’s the most bombastic, but I wouldn’t be surprised at any of these taking the top spot.
There are four wide releases coming out this weekend and only one of them has a chance of becoming a blockbuster and that’s because it’s part of a franchise of blockbusters. Terminator: Dark Fate is said to pick up where Terminator 2: Judgement Day left off, ignoring the subsequent sequels of questionable quality. With Linda Hamilton and Arnold Schwarzeneggar back, it’s likely the film will be a much bigger success at the box office than the prior entries, but will the bad taste left by the previous sequels still in the audience’s mouths, it might struggle on opening weekend and only prove a blockbuster on subsequent weekends. Either that or the fans will be forgiving. We’ll have to wait and see.
It’s hard to know how the weekend will go. Maleficent had a much weaker debut than expected, but the new releases this week don’t inspire confidence in success. Black and Blue feels like the latest in a series of genre bombs while Countdown doesn’t seem to have the horror heft most of its ilk do. It’s possible Maleficent stays on top, Joker returns to the top, or one of the new releases manages to surprise. If any film can, Countdown is probably it.
The second weekend of Joker was more popular than expected, but the third weekend will be no match for the follow-up to the 2014 $241 million blockbuster. That film opened to $69 million and this film will probably open not far behind.
There are two films that have a difficult climb to the top of the box office this week against the second week of Joker. Either could do it if the box office winds are with them, but both could ride bad reviews to subpar tallies. The Addams Family is the latest Blue Sky animated feature to make a run at the box office. While Blue Sky isn’t a studio well known for the quality of their output, they do have a pretty decent track record of box office success. If anything, Addams has the best shot at bringing down Joker. That said, Gemini Man could overcome its negative press with a solid box office run if Will Smith can return to the good graces of audiences. Smith has long been out of favor with the public as none of his films have been hits in recent years, at least because of his starring role. Gemini Man is the kind of gimmick that could alleviate his box office woes. The weekend’s other new release, Jexi, is likely to come in fourth for the weekend regardless of how the others play.
There’s no competition for Joker, so it will have an easy run at the top of the charts, though it might not have needed that assist as it’s sure to be a very profitable debut.
A new animated feature from DreamWorks should be just what the September box office needs. The likelihood of the film performing well and topping the box office is pretty good even if Downton Abbey has a solid hold over.
Contemplative science fiction, television movie made for cinemas, or 80s action staple returned. Those are the three films trying to unseat It Chapter Two form the top spot at the box office and each of them have the kinds of positive and negative attributes that could elevate or sink them. Ad Astra follows in a long tradition of sci-fi on the big screen and that alone could push it to the top of the box office, but this is more along the lines of Arrival than Star Wars, and its pensive elements might not make it a big sell. Downton Abbey makes the transition to the big screen after six seasons on the small screen. Leaving television behind four years ago has given creator Julian Fellows an opportunity to transfer his successful and popular show to the big screen, but TV on the big screen, unless completely re-adapted, hasn’t found a lot of success, so this will be an interesting test case. Will it follow the Sex and the City trajectory of success or the Entourage flop? Finally, there’s Rambo: Last Blood, the supposedly final film in the very popular 80s action franchise starring Sylvester Stallone. The film’s biggest issue is that no one asked for the film and after the dismal disappointment of the prior attempt to revive the character, there can’t be a lot of hope for this one.
In the wake of the towering, if weaker-than-anticipated, opening weekend of It Chapter Two, the likelihood of either of this week’s new releases topping the box office is rather slim, but both films will be competitive with one another for the second-place finish. Hustlers, by its more action-heavy and entertainment-oriented concept, has the advantage this week, though The Goldfinch, based on a beloved and well-regarded novel, could surprise. Both films want to bring in adult audiences, but the audience overlap is sure to be minimal and the end result being the powerhouse personalities of Hustlers probably give it the advantage.
There’s only one film releasing wide this week and it’s sure to be the top film of the week and the month. It Chapter Two opens wide and is sure to challenge its predecessor’s weekend total at the box office. Nothing, not even holdovers, have a chance.
There’s not much competition on Labor Day weekend for the box office crown. Don’t Let Go is the only new wide release (Saaho is also supposedly releasing wide, but it’s not the kind of film that tops the box office), so it will be the only one with a chance of taking down Angel Has Fallen and it might, but who really knows with Labor Day.
Even with the solid debut of Good Boys, another week at the top is unlikely considering the film didn’t pull in much over $20 million. That leaves two films with solid potential of winning the weekend. Overcomer is the latest Christian-themed film destined for release and while the genre hasn’t produced a lot of hits recently, this one could be different with a black lead rather than a white one. That said, it’s going to face a very difficult road to the top against the third film in the “Has Fallen” series. Angel Has Fallen may not have the gravitas of the original, but it should pull in a nice opening weekend. London Has Fallen, in spite of performing poorly compared to the original, still managed a $21 million opening. If this one approaches that amount, it should take the top spot.
Two films have the potential for topping the week’s box office. 47 Meters Down: Unchaged follows on the heels of a cult-loved predecessor, which could help it improve on that film’s paltry $11 million opening. The more likely winner is The Angry Birds Movie 2, which has a far more successful predecessor to build off of. That Hobbs & Shaw had a commonplace, but notable slide in its second weekend, it’s unlikely to take the top for a third week in a row.
With five films going into wide release this weekend, it’s likely that none of them will do incredibly well, at least their studios don’t expect them to. Either that or they think the competition is weak enough for them to come out on top. At 1,500 theaters, Brian Banks is the easiest of the five to remove from any list of potential #1 finishers. The other four films release in more than 2,700 theaters each with Dora and the Lost City of Gold topping out at 3,500. Below that is Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark with 3,000 and The Art of Racing in the Rain on 2,800. The Kitchen rounds out the list in the lower position. Of these, devoted fanbases are likely to push Scary Stories and Dora into contention for the top release of the weekend while The Art of Racing in the Rain could sneak past both for a top finish. I give the edge to Scary Stories because its teen-targeted audience is much more likely to turn out for a PG-13-rated horror film than former Dora the Explorer fans who’ve never grown out of their love for her.