For our seventh Rundown article, we take a gander at Best Adapted Screenplay. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with Best Original Screenplay. Click here to continue reading this article
The last most important televised precursor prior to the Oscars (BAFTA doesn’t count this year due to its wonky rules in the top categories), the Screen Actors Guild can make or break a trend, or at least the conversation around such a trend. While Cast won’t be much help in the Best Picture race this year, some actors winning in an upset or staying the course will likely forecast the final Oscar result. Click here to continue reading this article
This group has a middling history of predicting the Oscars, though certain nomination trends can be spotted by looking here. That said, we look to a single category for its potential and beyond that, it will just be interesting to see what industry professionals really think. Click here to continue reading this article
For our sixth Rundown article, we take a glimpse at Best Documentary Short Subject. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Short Subject as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover Best Adapted Screenplay. Click here to continue reading this article
For our fifth Rundown article, we examine Best Documentary Feature. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Feature as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover Best Documentary Short Subject. Click here to continue reading this article
For our fourth Rundown article, we look at Best Live Action Short Film. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Live Action Short Film as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover Best Documentary Feature. Click here to continue reading this article
For our third Rundown article, we explore Best International Feature Film. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best International Feature Film as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover Best Live Action Short Film. Click here to continue reading this article
For our second Rundown article, we look at Best Original Song. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best XXXX as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category Best International Feature. Click here to continue reading this article
For our first Rundown article of the year, we look at one of the categories with no adequate guild precursor. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Score as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover Best Original Song. Click here to continue reading this article
The final test of Nomadland‘s ability to sweep into the Oscars is the stuffy, success-craving Producers Guild of America. If it can win here, it can win the Oscar. We’ll just have to see how things go. (Editor’s Note: Updated to include Tripp’s predictions & commentary. 12:06pm Central, 3/23/21)
PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Wesley Lovell: The true test of a film’s Best Picture Oscar potential is if it can carry the Producers Guild of America. Only four times in the past ten years has a film won Best Picture without winning the PGA first. One of those times was a tie that saw the eventual Best Picture winner (12 Years a Slave) tie with the future Best Directing winner (Gravity). A 70% match ratio is pretty good. Though imperfect, you are better served to have this award in your corner than not and the PGA winners who didn’t carry on to Oscar are typically popular films that that either didn’t have much of a shot at winning the Oscar (The Big Short for example), large technical achievements (1917, Gravity), or were the Oscar frontrunner that went down in shocking defeat (La La Land). Really, few of these sound like the surprise Oscar winner types, so Nomadland has a solid chance, though crowd-pleaser Minari, technical marvel Mank, large ensemble The Trial of the Chicago 7, or late-breaking success Judas and the Black Messiah could win. Even Promising Young Woman has a chance due to its inventiveness. Small films that win Best Picture often miss this award, so if Nomadland doesn’t win, don’t discount its chances. Peter J. Patrick: The smart pick would be Nomadland, which has dominated the year-end critics’ awards, but with no box office blockbuster to vote for, I think the producers will put on their altruistic hats and vote for either the topical film about the struggles of a family of Korean immigrants trying to make a go of it in 1980s Arkansas (Minari) or the dark comedy about the #MeToo Movement that walks a fine line between horror and hilarity (Promising Young Woman). Tripp Burton: If Nomadland falters anywhere, this would be an obvious place. The PGA tends to go for big, slicker filmmaking than smaller, more independent films — think The Big Short over Spotlight. That might favor the Sorkin film here. Thomas LaTourette:Nomadland has been sweeping up best picture awards, and I think it will here too. This is not a year that the guild can look at box office success, so I think they will go with the probable Oscar winner. The PGA does not have a perfect record of matching Oscar winners, but it is pretty good. If it does not win, that probably will not be affecting its chances of winning the Oscar too much, but it is difficult to figure out what they might go for instead. Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are more prestigious nominees. Promising Young Woman one of the more daring ones. Perhaps Trial would be the likely one to rise to the top if there is an upset.
With the frontrunner for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars ineligible for this award, we’ll be left with the winner of the Original Screenplay prize to tell us if there’s going to be a clean sweep or a knock-down, drag-out fight between The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman.
WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS
Best Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah (Peter)
Promising Young Woman (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Wesley Lovell: This is the race of the night. Will Aaron Sorkin win out over Emerald Fennell. To this point, Promising Young Woman was taken 20 awards for its screenplay, Minari has 10, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 has, ironically, 7. The vast majority of these prizes came from critics groups, but so far the two televised awards shows split 50/50 with the Critics Choice going with Promising Young Woman and the Golden Globes choosing Chicago 7. Of course, they have been known to lap up everything Sorkin, so that may be the outlier. Still, for any script to gain a better foothold in this season, it needs this award and then the BAFTA. Since Minari isn’t nominated at BAFTA, it could easily remain the spoiler without this prize. Peter J. Patrick: This is a tough category with only Palm Springs seemingly out of it. I think the most recent releases, Judas and the Black Messiah and Promising Young Woman, could have the edge over The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Sound of Metal, but it could really be any one of the four. Tripp Burton: Aaron Sorkin is an awards favorite, but Promising Young Woman is one of the most “original” scripts of the year, and seems like something that the writers will go towards. Those two scripts will duke it out for the rest of the season, though. Thomas LaTourette: This may give us a reasonable idea of what Oscar night might bring. Both Trial and Promising are well written and the award could easily go to either. And the others are all well respected too. Even though Aaron Sorkin is the more noted writer, I will give the edge to Promising Young Woman to win.
Based on our nominations predictions, here’s how we did.
Once again, it was an incredibly close competition. 1 correct prediction separated first and second place. This year, Thomas La Tourrette came out on top with 89 correct predictions, just 1 more than Wesley Lovell. Tripp was third with 81 correct predictions and Peter J. Patrick came in fourth with 78 correct predictions.
All four of us had the same ten films listed for Best Picture, but Tripp was the only one who foresaw the weak position of One Night in Miami, which, along with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom were the two films that failed to make the final list of ten.
With Ma Rainey being the only film that we all missed in its placement in the order, let’s look at other predictions that all four of us had down, but we ultimately missed. They were Mank (Original Screenplay), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Adapted Screenplay), Birds of Prey (Makeup & Hairstyling), and Welcome to Chechnya (Visual Effects). That ultimately makes only five nominations we all agreed on that didn’t make it. Not bad.
Now, there were even more selections that didn’t figure into any of our predictions. Total, there were twelve:
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Animated Feature), Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round (Directing), Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Adapted Screenplay), “Husavik” – Eurovision Song Contest (Original Song), Da 5 Bloods (Original Score), Pinocchio (Makeup & Hairstyling), Love and Monsters (Visual Effects), The Man Who Sold His Skin (International Feature), The Mole Agent (Documentary Feature), Genius Loci (Animated Short Film), Yes-People (Animated Short Film), and The Human Voice (Live Action Short Film).
And finally, it’s always fun to look at the nominations that only one of our predictors bravely suggested and managed to get it right. There were plenty of left-field choices we got wrong, but here are the ones we did right. The best of us at making those tough calls is Tripp who selected five of the ten out-on-a-limb predictions that were made. Those were: Judas and the Black Messiah (Original Screenplay), The White Tiger (Adapted Screenplay), Judas and the Black Messiah (Cinematography), Greyhound (Sound), and The One and Only Ivan (Visual Effects). Peter and Thomas each pegged two. Thomas went with The Father (Film Editing) and Emma. (Makeup & Hairstyling) while Peter picked The Father (Production Design) and Better Days (International Feature). And finally, Wesley only managed one correct solo guess and that was Feeling Through (Live Action Short Film).
And there we have this year’s nominations predictions successes and failures. Now, it’s all downhill from here to the Oscars in April.
Now that the Oscar nominations have been announced, it’s time to get to guessing on the winners. Our contributors’ performances in this year’s nominations will be reviewed and posted hopefully this evening. (This has been updated with Thomas’ predictions)
FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.
It’s always difficult to know precisely how the Academy will handle the announcements. We have the list of categories that will be announced and in which grouping, but we have no idea in what order they will be announced. We know that White Tiger actress and Bollywood star-turned Hollywood actress Priyanka Chopra Jonas and her husband Nick Jonas will be making the announcement. Chopra Jones has been in significantly more films than her young former teen heartthrob husband, but neither are exactly legends in the cinematic milieu. Last year’s presenters weren’t either, but the need for the Academy to reach younger audiences is an ever-challenging battle. Whether they will be any good or not (in spite of both being telegenic) remains to be seen.
We don’t know if there will be taped introductions then a voice-over reading of the nominees. We don’t know what precise order the nominees will be announced in. Based on the announcement info we know so far, my guess is that the announcement will be exactly like last year’s in terms of production values and oddness.
The category breakdown will be largely unchanged from last year. Group 1 is Actor in a Supporting Role, Actress in a Supporting Role, Costume Design, Music (Original Score), Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound, Writing (Adapted Screenplay), and Writing (Original Screenplay). Group 2 is Actor in a Leading Role, Actress in a Leading Role, Animated Feature Film, Cinematography, Directing, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Film Editing, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Music (Original Song), Best Picture, Production Design, and Visual Effects.
They have not announced a more specific category announcement order, so the information below will be ordered as I see fit, largely tackling categories that won’t impact others first, then digging into the other categories.
Below, embedded in this article, is a video where you can watch the announcement streamed live starting at 5:19am PST / 7:19am CST / 8:19am EST / 1:19pm GMT / 9:19pm China for Group 1 and 5:31am PST / 7:31am CST / 8:31am EST / 1:31pm GMT / 9:31pm China for Group 2.
Every year, I put together an article that goes through the order of announcement and not only gives you an idea of what to expect, but how it might affect later announcements or might have been impacted by earlier ones. The above PDF features all of the films and individuals I’ve listed as Hopefuls on my site so that you can print it out and follow along as the announcements are made (at least as best you can).
With some of my personal opinions about the race highlighted in today’s other final nominations predictions post, I’m going to try and keep things brief. However, we all know how that usually turns out.
Without knowing how they will make the announcements and in what order, the below may be a bit arbitrary. At the end of each category, there’s a short, alphabetized list in the order the nominations would be announced so you can quickly look over the order in a small space. Traditionally, the nominations had been announced in alphabetical order by film title in all except the acting categories, which will be ordered by last name.
As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.
The strangest part of this year is how little consensus has emerged and when it does, it’s in unusual places. For our final nominations predictions set for the 93rd Oscars, we have found very little common ground except in some strangely interesting places. For the first time I can remember, all of us chose the same ten films for Best Picture. While we all have them in vastly different orders. That’s an amazing alignment. We were almost nearly unified in Animated Feature with Tripp being the odd choice out. We also came close to unifying in Actor (Thomas and I split from Peter and Tripp on one person); Actress (where Peter’s the odd man out this time); Original Screenplay (Tripp again); and Adapted Screenplay (if you guessed, Tripp…). Who knows how close we’ll all be to one another, but like every year, the documentary and short film categories may be the determining factors.
A final programming note before you move on. My annual Oscar Morning article (with attached follow-along PDF) will be coming out soon. It’s taking a bit longer than expected and other obligations have gotten in the way. I assure you, though, it will hopefully be posted before dinner time.
I also hope to have one more final update to the precursor awards and tallies (the tallies list is short I think three or four precursors while the other is way behind) by the end of the day. Tallies will most likely be up first since it’s most helpful. If you want to know how a group voted, the info is contained there, though not as easy to find. You can also enter your organization into the search field and it should come back with the right results.