Our tradition was to issue our first predictions in May. The pandemic got in the way. Thus, our first predictions come in our normal post-festival spot with Venice and Toronto both in the rearview mirror. Looking at the top categories at the Oscars, we rely on pending releases to complete our selections, with many of them at risk of being delayed until 2021 like a number of other films have been. After the break, you’ll receive our first Oscar predictions of the year.

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Film Independent’s Spirit Awards, which always get handed out the night before the Oscars, have a notable lack of Oscar nominees this year than it has in the recent past. Whether that’s because more studio films were released that could compete for the Oscars or just that the Oscar nominees aren’t appreciated enough by Film Independent’s voters is unknown. This is the last formal precursor before the Oscars on Sunday, so here are our predictions.
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For our eighteenth and final Rundown article, we look at the biggest category of them all. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.
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[NOTE: Tripp’s predictions and commentary have now been added. 2/6/20 6:26pm CST]Before we dig into our final predictions, we have some introductory paragraphs for you to read. The Oscars are on Sunday and we’ll see just how close or far apart we are when that day comes. A lot of races solidified while many races have fluctuated wildly this season.

Wesley Lovell: I have already posted my final thoughts on this year’s categories, so I won’t be providing extra commentary here, thereby giving my contributors and opportunity to shine in their observations.
Peter J. Patrick: This has been a predictable Oscar season in many categories but unpredictable in others.
Tripp Burton: No overarching commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This year it feels that a lot of the winners are pretty set, with picture, director, international film, and all four acting awards practically predetermined. 1917 has become the film to beat in many categories, with five probable wins, six counting visual effects which is still up in the air. It could do even better than that total, though I doubt it could ever win all ten nominations it is up for. For a film that came out so late, it has become surprisingly dominant, and all the more surprising since it had no acting nominations. It will be the first film since Slumdog Millionaire to pull that off. The only film that stands in its way is Parasite, a South Korean film by the famed Bong Joon-Ho. It is incredibly well liked in Hollywood, but that probably will not be enough to propel it to a win for best picture. More personal films have been winning best picture lately, but I think the Academy will get behind the war film as they are just not ready to give that award to a foreign language film.

Some categories have come more into play, with animated feature, both screenplays, production design, and visual effects not as certain as they seemed when the nominations were announced. It is nice that there is still some unpredictability in the awards, even if the top six are set. Annie awards for best animated film, the British Academy, and some of the guilds have surprised with wins and snubs. That adds a needed sense of suspense this year.

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There’s not much time left. Sunday, we will find out just how much we did and did not know about this Oscar season. While I’ve contributed quick thoughts to our Rundown articles, I always like to do more with my final prediction post of the year. This will include how I think the races will finish out, what has the best chances of surprising, and what I overall felt about the nominees, non-nominees, and other general thoughts. Please note that I have not made it through all of the Oscar nominees, so my thoughts will be based on what I have seen and what I see as problem nominees if that applies.

The categories below are sorted in order from least competitive to most competitive. Best Picture, whether competitive or not, will always be last.

I will not be sharing my personal thoughts on the quality of the international and documentary categories, but I’ve seen all the nominees in the short film categories, so I can offer my thoughts on those. I don’t know that my guesses would have much impact, but I have still written a little something on each.

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For our seventeenth Rundown article, the first things needed to make a film. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Screenplay & Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover our final category.
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For our sixteenth Rundown article, we look at categories that give us our setting. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Production Design & Best Costume Design as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover the categories that are needed before filming can begin.
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For our fifteenth Rundown article, we look at the category that makes something from nothing. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Visual Effects as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover The categories most responsible for the setting of the film.
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For our fourteenth Rundown article, we go to the single vision at the heart of a motion picture. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Directing as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover the creation of something that was never there before.
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The WGA, in spite of their atypical eligibility rules, is a somewhat accurate precursor. When films don’t make the list, it calls into question their choices, but if they pick the frontrunner, they’ll likely stay the frontrunner.
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The Art Directors Guild are a solid predictor of the Production Design category. The big question is always whether it’s the Period or the Fantasy winner that will go onto Oscar with a very rare instance of the Contemporary winner doing it.
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The closest we are likely to ever come to a deadly accurate precursor, the members of BAFTA don’t entirely overlap the Oscars, but they have a lot of similarities. Matter of fact, some notable trends have developed as a result of the BAFTA selections. That said, their awards are being handed out in the midst of voting, suggesting that some who may have already voted won’t have the benefit of these awards.
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For our thirteenth Rundown article, we look at long-form animation. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Animated Feature as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that is most aligned with Best Picture.
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For our twelfth Rundown article, we look at two of the primary aural categories. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover long-form animation
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For our eleventh Rundown article, we look at the awards the govern the look and pace of a film. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Film Editing and Best Cinematography as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover the sound of cinema.
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