Heading into the festival triple threat that is Telluride/Toronto/Venice, Oscar season will soon be kicking into high gear. We take one last look at our predictions before the sense of inevitability that these festivals will stamp onto some of the races.

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As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

There’s very little overlap with our first-of-the-year predictions, but these are the films and performances we currently see as potential contenders this year.

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And now it’s time for our final Oscar predictions. Knowing what we know now and having seen how all of the crucial guilds have worked themselves out, it’s time to reveal to you our thoughts on what will win this year’s Academy Awards.

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: It’s almost over and what seemed to be building to a grand finished seems to be petering out to a mediocre conclusion. It’s 2005 and 2018 all over again where the acclaimed frontrunner goes down to a late-gaining film much to the chagrin of many people involved. There are a few changes here that manifested after the Rundown series began, but I’ve tried to keep them updated in my Hopefuls list, so they shouldn’t come as too much of a shock.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m resigned to the likelihood that there will be no surprises in the acting categories, but I refuse to believe that CODA will overtake The Power of the Dog for Best Picture. Other than that, most of my predictions remain intact from those I came up with after the nominations came out.
Tripp Burton: (Tripp was unable to provide updated final predictions at time of posting. We will update this post as soon as that information comes in)
Thomas LaTourette: The Academy Awards are Sunday, and we are pulling out our hair trying to determine the winners. I have managed to see every film but two of the documentary features and one that is only up for best song. It has been a decent though not exceptional year for movies. Dune looks to be the most honored film at the end of the night. Probably only it, CODA, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, and possibly Encanto will earn more than one Oscar. The Power of the Dog had entered the race with 12 nominations and seemed ready to bring many of those home, though momentum definitely has shifted against it. Jane Campion will assuredly win for directing it, and that might prove to be its only win of the evening. CODA with only three nominations had originally looked like it would win none and now looks poised to take all three, including an unprecedented best picture Oscar. It would be the first film since 1932’s Grand Hotel to take the top award without either a directing or editing nomination. Until a month ago when it won the Screen Actors Guild award for best cast, it was looked at as a likeable film that was lucky to get any nominations at all. Boy things changed in a hurry. Some categories like actor, supporting actress, animated and documentary features, sound, and score have stayed stable, but many others have had quantum shifts only very recently coming to consensus opinions. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. There are still likely to be upsets on Oscar night, but that is part of the fun of this whole process.

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Another Oscar season comes to an end. While the Pandemic Year seemed long, this one has seemed even longer. Perhaps that’s because my favorite film of last year, Promising Young Woman, wasn’t a Best Picture contender. This year, The Power of the Dog could well win, becoming the first film to top my personal list (so far) to win Best Picture since 12 Years a Slave in 2013. Unfortunately, that is seeming like an even bigger unlikelihood now that the bigots have grabbed the baton and run with it, anointing CODA as their choice replacement. Whether I actually buy that or not, I don’t know. Belfast would seem a more likely candidate if that were the case.

Anyway, we don’t have much time to go, so I’m going through my final predictions today with a fine-toothed comb hoping my insights can either help you understand my predictions or help you make your own.

The categories below are sorted in order from least competitive to most competitive. Best Picture, whether competitive or not (and it actually is this year), is last. While these are currently my final predictions, I reserve the right to change my mind at the last-minute. That said, doing that has often been a bad thing, so it will likely stay the same. Keep an eye out on the sidebar where it says “updated” under the predictions listing. When it says FINAL, you know I’m settled. I really just want to take one last look through my Hopefuls/Predictions and the chances rankings to see if I feel they still need to be adjusted. I hope to have this done by the end of day on Friday.

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For our twenty-first Rundown article, we look at top prize of the night. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll get to our final revised predictions for the 94th Academy Awards.
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For our twentieth Rundown article, we write about the writing categories. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover Picture
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For our nineteenth Rundown article, we shine a bright light on our Cinematography predictions. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Cinematography as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover the writing awards.
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For our eighteenth Rundown article, we hear from our contributors on Sound. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Sound as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover Cinematography.
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Having influence over the Best Cinematography category at the Oscars, the ASC has split quite often with the Academy and might be one of the oldest organizations to do so on a frequent basis. Will they be able to forecast the Oscar victor between Dune and The Power of the Dog? We shall see.
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With so many exclusions at the WGA, their prognosticative capabilities are minimal, but we still look to them for potential trends.
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Of the two sound-related categories that got axed, this was the one that remained. While nominally inclusive of the sound editing folks, everyone pays attention to the Cinema Audio Society for direction instead since the nominations this year seem very much in tune with what they would pick and/or nominate.
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While the PGA is a relative neophyte compared to the likes of the DGA and WGA, it is has still forecast a handful of Best Picture victories, so keep an eye on them, but remember that they don’t always pick the winner, especially if it’s a fluky selection.
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For our seventeenth Rundown article, we present our predictions. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Directing as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with our predictions for Best Sound.
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For our sixteenth Rundown article, we pin up our predictions. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Costume Design as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover Best Directing
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For our fifteenth Rundown article, we talk animatedly about our predictions. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Animated Feature as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover Best Costume Design. (Tripp’s commentary added, no changes to the predictions).
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