We’re back for our mid-year look at the state of the Oscar race. While a lot of things are still rather fluid, a few titles continue to show up each month on our predictions list. This month we’re adding Best Visual Effects with two films, Avengers: Endgame and Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker both debuting with unified predictions. Little has changed this month, though Woman in the Window has been pushed to 2020, which removed it from a number of our predictions. Otherwise, it’s just a lot of hemming and hawing from prior months.
Category: Predictions
2019 Oscar Nominations Predictions: June
As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.
For our second month of predictions, we look at how little has changed. With few films having been released to give us a glimpse into the fall, the only notable is that The Irishman may be delayed due to some last-minute de-aging effects. That could completely change our predictions. For now, however, we seem fairly unified on its inclusion, though not much agreement for many other films.
2019 Oscar Nominations Predictions: The Beginning
As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.
As Spring turns into Summer, thoughts of next year’s Oscars start trickling into our subconscious thoughts. With our first predictions, it’s always interesting to see where everyone stands, where the early consensus is, and then compare later to the end results. Looking at only six categories (Picture, Directing, and the four acting awards), it’s interesting to note that six films make all four of our lists. Another fifteen appear on three. Out of a total of 35 potential nomination slots, that’s a surprisingly strong group of aligned predictions. We’ll see how things change over the months as we hope to have new predictions up every month through the end of the year, adding more categories as we go.
2018 Oscar Winner Predictions: FINAL
And here we are at the end of the road. Oscar Season 2018 ends this weekend and we have our final predictions to present to you. Before we get into the meat of the predictions, here are some introductions written by our contributors. After you finish reading our introductions, head into the predictions and see where we stand and how you compare.
Wesley Lovell: Compared to the low suspense year that was 2016 (which ended up with one major suspenseful conclusion) and 2017’s back-and-forth races, 2018 has been comparatively a nail-biter. Even with several major categories locking into winners. Many categories, though, seem to be up in the air still, or at least seem like anyone could win even if a frontrunner is almost certain. In several races, I could have swapped first and second (and even third or fourth) place finishers with one another and still felt I had a solid prediction set. I’ve spent a lot of time writing about these categories. If you want to read my thoughts in more detail, take a look at my article Oscar Guy’s Final Thoughts to know more about what I see as this year’s best bets, runners-up, and my personal opinions.
Peter J. Patrick: I can’t recall a year in which I had no clear idea of what would win Best Picture while at the same time being sure of most of the other categories. If that’s not a good reason to stay awake until the last envelope is opened Sunday night, I don’t know what is.
Tripp Burton: The guilds have all awarded a different film this year, and things are more up in the air than any year I can remember. The show might be a disaster this year, but we are sure in for a lot of surprises, mostly because there aren’t a lot of consensus predictions going on. I could get half of these wrong and not be surprised!
Thomas La Tourrette: Having seen all but three of the nominees, it is time to put my predictions to rest. While some categories are easy, there are several including best picture, that are proving to be bears this year. Editing, documentary feature, sound mixing and editing, and costume and production design are all categories that could go one way or another. It keeps it both interesting, but also difficult. I am still second guessing some of my choices even as I get ready to send this. It has been a decent year for films, though not an exceptional one, but there are still lots of good choices in most categories. I just found that I liked more movies in 2017 than I did in 2018. I have never been on the Roma bandwagon, and I still do not know why it is the frontrunner in many categories. And many will not agree with me, but I thought Black Panther was just another Marvel film. Many of the other best picture nominees were enjoyable, but not what I would consider worthy of winning. Of the eight nominees, BlacKkKlansman and Green Book are probably my favorites, with BlacKkKlansman being the better made film. Though I doubt it could win. No film will truly dominate this year’s awards, which probably makes it harder to predict. But here are my predictions and I will call it good, though I may change my mind on a couple before Sunday night.
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2018 Precursor Predictions: Spirit Awards
And here we have the final precursor of the 2018 Oscar season. The Spirit Awards are often the first and always the last precursor (the Razzie awards are too, but they don’t precurse anything). While we always look at how they could influence the Oscars (after all, five of the last seven winners have also won the Best Picture Oscar), this year’s list seems to be surprisingly bereft of major Oscar players. The Best Feature slate doesn’t have a single Best Picture nominee on it, the first time in a decade that’s happened (2008 was the last time and before that was 2002 and 2001). We won’t know the winners until the night before the Oscars and the overlap is minimal, so the end results won’t be terribly instructive.
SPIRIT AWARDS
Best Feature
Eighth Grade (Tripp, RU:Thomas)
First Reformed (RU:Wesley)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Leave No Trace (Peter)
You Were Never Really Here
Wesley Lovell: It’s hard to say which of these films will win. While If Beale Street Could Talk came the closest to an Oscar nomination for Best Picture and is the only film of these to earn more than one Oscar nomination (First Reformed is the only other one with a single nomination), so it should be leading. However, all of them have been incredibly well received this season and any of them could win.
Peter J. Patrick: With no Oscar nominees in the running this year, this could go to any of the nominees, but they really like Debra Granik’s films at the Spirits, so I see her Leave No Trace taking it over former winner Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk.
Tripp Burton: With no Oscar Best Picture nominee in this bunch, this is a real free-for-all category this year. Beale Street seems like the safest contender here, but Eighth Grade keeps surprising us with guild wins and could win an upset here.
Thomas LaTourette: If Beale Street Could Talk was probably close to an Oscar nomination, so it seems the likely winner.
The Rundown 2018: Picture
For our twentieth Rundown article, we look at the final category. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.
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91st Oscars: Oscar Guy’s Final Thoughts
There’s not much time left. Sunday, we will find out just how much we did and did not know about this Oscar season. While I’ve contributed quick thoughts to our Rundown articles, I always like to do more with my final prediction post of the year. This will include how I think the races will finish out, what has the best chances of surprising, and what I overall felt about the nominees, non-nominees, and other general thoughts. Please note that I have not made it through all of the Oscar nominees, so my thoughts will be based on what I have seen and what I see as problem nominees if that applies.
The categories below are sorted in order from least competitive to most competitive.
I will not be sharing my personal thoughts on the quality of the foreign language and documentary categories, but I’ve seen both short film categories, so I can offer my thoughts on those. I don’t know that my guesses would have much impact. I have still written a little something on each.
The Rundown 2018: Costume Design
For our nineteenth Rundown article, we look at a category that is frocking amazing. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Costume Design as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover the big one.
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The Rundown 2018: Sound Mixing & Editing
For our eighteenth Rundown article, we examine categories whose innovation was in their infancy when the Academy was founded. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we’ll cover a frocking amazing category.
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The Rundown 2018: Visual Effects
For our seventeenth Rundown article, we review an inventive category where something is created where nothing existed before. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Visual Effects as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover categories whose innovation existed in its infancy when the Academy was founded.
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2018 Precursor Predictions: Costume Designers Guild
The Costume Designers Guild has three chances to predict the Oscars, though you really only need to look at two of them as the winners for Period and Fantasy Costume Design each have a historical potential of winning.
COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD AWARDS
Best Period Costume Design
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody (RU:Peter)
The Favourite (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Mary Poppins Returns (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Mary Queen of Scots (RU:Wesley)
Wesley Lovell: With such a broad range of periods to be recognized with this award, The Favourite is closets in style to many of the other winners in this category and I’d be surprised if it lost. If it did, I could imagine Mary Queen of Scots being the most likely beneficiary simply because it’s also from a long-ago period this group likes to recognize.
Peter J. Patrick: The Favourite is the clear, er hem, favorite, here. I doubt there will be an upset, but Bohemian Rhapsody‘s 1970s and ’80s designs might win over some of the designers.
Tripp Burton: The creative and vibrant period work of The Favourite should win handily here.
Thomas LaTourette: The Favourite should easily be the favorite to win here. The Marys, Poppins, and Queen of Scots, will be in the running, but I do not expect either to win.
The Rundown 2018: Original & Adapted Screenplays
For our sixteenth Rundown article, we glimpse at the foundation of all movies. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover the most inventive of categories, creating something where nothing exists.
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2018 Precursor Predictions: Cinema Audio Society
A solid predictor of the Sound Mixing Oscar winner, their choice will definitely get a boost going into Oscar night.
CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY AWARDS
Best Sound Mixing – Live Action
Black Panther (Peter)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
First Man
A Quiet Place (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
A Star Is Born (Thomas)
Wesley Lovell: If they want to predict the Oscars, they’ll probably go with Bohemain Rhapsody. If they want to recognize the best use of sound, A Quiet Place will earn the nod. Anything else could win, so I wouldn’t be entirely surprised.
Peter J. Patrick: It’s hard to say what they will deem the best since the nominees are all coming from different places, but the unique sounds of Black Panther and A Quiet Place were important to the success of their films and shouldn’t be discounted.
Tripp Burton: I imagine that sound people might go for A Quiet Place, where the sound design is so integral to the story, but with the way this season is going, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bohemian Rhapsody win here.
Thomas LaTourette: One would think that one of the musical pics should win. A Star Is Born should win, but I would not be surprised if Bohemian Rhapsody does.
2018 Precursor Predictions: Make-Up Artists Guild
The Hollywood Make-Up and Hair-Stylists Guild is one of the newest groups handing out awards and they haven’t been able to generate any kind of pattern in terms of their predictability. Having five categories that could match might help a little.
MAKE-UP ARTISTS & HAIR STYLISTS GUILD AWARDS
Best Period and/or Character Make-up
Bohemian Rhapsody (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Mary Poppins Returns (RU:Peter)
Mary Queen of Scots (Peter, RU:Thomas)
Stan & Ollie
Vice (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
Wesley Lovell: This award is not typically granted to prosthetic makeup, which makes it a bit of a challenge to predict. Bohemian Rhapsody, not nominated at the Oscars and not nominated in their prosthetic category here would be a good bet for an upset, but if they go gaga for Oscar nominee Vice, they could give it a prize here. Of course, any of the others could win and I wouldn’t be at all surprised.
Peter J. Patrick: Both Marys had a lot of period character – one or the other should be rewarded.
Tripp Burton: Oscar frontrunner Vice should win a precursor here, unless the love of Bohemian Rhapsody is really strong.
Thomas LaTourette: Vice has the most striking make-up, so I think it should win here.
2018 Precursor Predictions: Motion Picture Sound Editors
The Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards have bountiful nominations and before the expansion to five nominees at the Oscars, weren’t particularly instructive. Now, they have a bit more influence and a bit more cross-over.
MOTION PICTURE SOUND EDITORS AWARDS
Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects and Foley in a Feature Film
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Deadpool 2
The Favourite
First Man (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
A Quiet Place (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Ready Player One
Roma
Wesley Lovell: If there’s any group that’s going to truly appreciate what went into making A Quiet Place what it was, this is the group that will recognize it. Of course, the more traditional efforts in films like First Man, Avengers: Infinity War, and Black Panther could also triumph.
Peter J. Patrick: The effects in First Man and A Quiet Place are the most realistic of the bunch, if that counts for anything.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea, but A Quiet Place seems like the favorite for these awards.
Thomas LaTourette: First Man would win, though it has not done well in the precursors. A Quiet Place was astounding for the silence and noise, so it could sneak in.