Category: Precursors

Precursor: 63rd Grammy Award Nominations (2020)

If there was a time when the Grammys were relevant as an Oscar prognostiscator, I cannot think of when. They have an asynchronous eligibility period where fall releases for one year show up in the nominations the following year. That is particularly true of this year’s slate. eleven films out of nineteen nominations were released in 2019 (the year of release is marked below). We also have a rare situation where one of the nominees won’t release until next year. “No Time to Die,” the title track to the latest James Bond film has been pushed back to 2021, but the single by Billie Eilish was already released, thus its nomination. It could be a very early prediction for the 94th Oscars.

As to the 93rd Oscars, of the remaining seven films, there’s very little likelihood of any of them making it to the Oscars. Here are the reasons. The Best Compilation Soundtrack category is for a compilation of songs used in a film. While four of the films nominated would have pulled most of their soundtrack from elsewhere, Frozen II is entirely original. It’s possible that songs from either Bill & Ted or Eurovision Song Contest could be considered for the Original Song category, none of these titles were or are going to be Oscar nominees in Original Score.

The contenders in that category, can more often be found in the Best Score Soundtrack category where four of the five nominees were 2019 films and of those films, three (Joker, 1917, and Star Wars) were Oscar nominees while Ad Astra was not. Does that mean the only 2020 nominee on the list is a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination? Not likely. The film was barely seen and came out prior to the pandemic, meaning most everyone has forgotten about it and I don’t suspect it will have a leg-up against several other contenders.

In Best Song, three of the nominees are 2019 releases, two of which were Oscar nominees (“Into the Unknown” and “Stand Up”). One nominee is a 2021 release and there’s no reason to doubt the James Bond title song won’t be Oscar nominated in a year’s time. That leaves Onward‘s song “Carried Me with You” as a potential Oscar nominee. Its chances are good with so few competitors this year and there’s little chance Disney won’t push it and a song from “Soul” into the race for Best Original Song.

The final category is the Best Music Film. The only category this could tie itself to is Best Documentary Feature and this also happens to be the only category where a majority of the nominees were current-year releases. The only 2019 nominee, Linda Ronstadt, wasn’t nominated by the Academy and there’s a reason for that. The Academy is not enamored with music documentaries. They have nominated precious few in their history and that’s with widely popular acts at the center of those documentaries. Beastie Boys doesn’t seem like a group the Academy would love; Black Is King is a video film based off the soundtrack for The Lion King, definitely not a contender; and finally, there’s We Are Freestyle Love Supreme, which also doesn’t seem like the kind of hard-hitting documentary the Academy tends to favor.

Ultimately, it doesn’t look like anything but two Best Song nominees, one from a film released in 2020 and one from a film to be released in 2021, will be predictive of this year’s Oscar contenders.

Nominations Tallies

(2) Frozen II

The Nominations

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Precursor: 30th Gotham Awards Nominations (2020)

Releasing weeks before the normal start of Oscar precursor season, the Gotham Awards have announced their nominations this year and there’s a lot of films here that haven’t been getting a lot of chatter, but could get a small boost from this. First Cow was the most nominated with three followed by a sextet of films with two nominations apiece.

Award Tallies

(3) First Cow
(2) The Forty-Year-Old Version, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Miss Juneteenth, The Nest, Nomadland, The Vast of Night

The Awards

Best Feature

The Assistant
First Cow
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Nomadland
Relic

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93rd Oscars: Upcoming Precursors – November

Precursors to the Academy Awards come in many different types and they can appear all year from festivals and national awards to critics groups and other organization. Each month, we’ll take a look at all of the upcoming events that could have some small impact on the Oscars so you can plan out what to keep an eye on.

NOTE: Most of the events this year are tentative due to the pandemic and having limited information on what different groups are doing when.
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93rd Oscars: Upcoming Precursors – October

Precursors to the Academy Awards come in many different types and they can appear all year from festivals and national awards to critics groups and other organization. Each month, we’ll take a look at all of the upcoming events that could have some small impact on the Oscars so you can plan out what to keep an eye on.

With the Academy Awards moving back, it’s not clear if the regular schedule of awards will continue, but here are a few that are possible within the month of October.

October

Nominations

Thursday, Oct. 15 – Broadcast Critics – Documentary (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Thursday, Oct. 22 – Australian Academy of Cinema and Televisions Arts (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Friday, Oct. 23 – Gotham Awards (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Thursday, Oct. 29 – Blue Dragon Film Awards (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)

93rd Oscars: Upcoming Precursors – September

Once again, we have no certainty that any of these awards or nominations will take place as anticipated.

Precursors to the Academy Awards come in many different types and they can appear all year from festivals and national awards to critics groups and other organization. Each month, we’ll take a look at all of the upcoming events that could have some small impact on the Oscars so you can plan out what to keep an eye on.
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93rd Oscars: Upcoming Precursors – August

Precursors to the Academy Awards come in many different types and they can appear all year from festivals and national awards to critics groups and other organization. Each month, we’ll take a look at all of the upcoming events that could have some small impact on the Oscars so you can plan out what to keep an eye on.

As the pandemic intensifies in the United States, theaters haven’t exhibited new wide release since March, leaving three months of barren wasteland. All of the below were previously scheduled in August, but are unlikely to be broadcast at this juncture.

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93rd Oscars: Upcoming Precursors – July

Precursors to the Academy Awards come in many different types and they can appear all year from festivals and national awards to critics groups and other organization. Each month, we’ll take a look at all of the upcoming events that could have some small impact on the Oscars so you can plan out what to keep an eye on.

NOTE: We already know the Academy’s calendar has changed dramatically, so that event will not go on as planned, nor has it been rescheduled. The others may also face similar struggles. This is a historical record of what was potentially going to happen had the pandemic not reared its head.

July

Nominations

Thursday, Jul. 23 – Grande Premio do Cinema Brasileiro (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)

Awards

Monday, Jul. 13 – Young Artists Awards (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

Oscars

Wednesday, Jul. 8 – Sci-Tech Awards: Submissions Open (Unconfirmed)
Wednesday, Jul. 29 – Sci-Tech Awards: Submission Deadline (Unconfirmed)

93rd Oscars: Upcoming Precursors – June

Precursors to the Academy Awards come in many different types and they can appear all year from festivals and national awards to critics groups and other organization. Each month, we’ll take a look at all of the upcoming events that could have some small impact on the Oscars so you can plan out what to keep an eye on.

It should be noted that a lot of awards programs are suspending production for the foreseeable future. It is not certain if any or all of these will be postponed.

June

Nominations

Friday, Jun. 12 – Teen Choice Awards (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)

Awards

Wednesday, Jun. 17 – MTV Movie Awards (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Friday, Jun. 26 – Saturn Awards (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

Oscar-Related

Saturday, Jun. 20 – Sci-Tech Awards (Official)

93rd Oscars: Upcoming Precursors – May

Precursors to the Academy Awards come in many different types and they can appear all year from festivals and national awards to critics groups and other organization. Each month, we’ll take a look at all of the upcoming events that could have some small impact on the Oscars so you can plan out what to keep an eye on.

Whether either of these events occur, these are what I show as potentially scheduled for May.

May

Awards

Sunday, May. 3 – German Film Awards (Lolas) (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Friday, May. 22 – ASCAP (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

93rd Oscars: Upcoming Precursors – April

Precursors to the Academy Awards come in many different types and they can appear all year from festivals and national awards to critics groups and other organization. Each month, we’ll take a look at all of the upcoming events that could have some small impact on the Oscars so you can plan out what to keep an eye on.

That said, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused numerous events to postpone. I’m sure that the Italian Academy Awards will certainly be pushed off and I’m fairly certain CinemaCon was postponed.

APRIL

Nominations

Wednesday, Apr. 8 – ASCAP (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)

Awards

Friday, Apr. 3 – David di Donatello Awards (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Apr. 4 – CinemaCon (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

Precursor: 73rd Bodil Awards (2019)

Not all information is available for these awards. These are the pieces of information I’ve been able to collect so far.

Award Tallies

(3) Queen of Hearts

The Awards

Best Danish Film

Queen of Hearts

Best Actor

Jesper Christensen – For frosten

Best Actress

Trine Dyrholm – Queen of Hearts

Best Supporting Actor

Gustav Lindh – Queen of Hearts

Best Supporting Actress

Sofie Torp – Ser du manen, Daniel

Best Documentary

Q’s Barbershop

Best American Film

Marriage Story

Best Non-American Film

Parasite

Arbejdernes Landsbank Talent Prize

Ulaa Salim – Danmarks sonner (director)

Danish Film Critics Association Data

First Awards: 1947 (73)

Precursor: 45th Cesar Awards (2019)

In spite of a rather pointed protest over Roman Polanski’s Best Directing win, the big winner of the night was not his film An Officer and a Spy, even though it took three awards, it was Best Picture winner Les Misérables, which took five.

Award Tallies

(5) Les Miserables
(3) La Belle Epoque, An Officer and a Spy
(2) I Lost My Body, Papicha

The Awards

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93rd Oscars: Upcoming Precursors – March

Precursors to the Academy Awards come in many different types and they can appear all year from festivals and national awards to critics groups and other organization. Each month, we’ll take a look at all of the upcoming events that could have some small impact on the Oscars so you can plan out what to keep an eye on.
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Precursor: 51st NAACP Image Awards (2019)

In spite of Harriet being among the Oscar nominees, Just Mercy, which was only loosely in the Oscar conversation this year outperformed every other film that had gotten more buzz to take a majority of the prizes.

Award Tallies

(4) Just Mercy
(2) Little, Us

The Nominations

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Precursor: 22nd Film Music Critics Nominations (2019)

The Academy gave the award to the composer of Joker. That composer instead won here for Chernobyl. Instead, celebrated composer John Williams took home three prizes for his Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker score. This group was more likely to recognize Williams for his last Star Wars score ever than the Academy was. That said, even when they could have selected Joker, they went with something else. All of the nominees in the Original Score category at the Oscars, except Joker and Marriage Story won a prize here.

Award Tallies

(3) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The Awards

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