Category: Precursors

Precursor: 25th Art Directors Guild Nominations (2020)

The Art Directors Guild has a large advantage in predicting the Oscar race. With twenty nominees (the five in animated really don’t have a chance), they have a pretty sterling track record. You usually have to take at least 3 of the period nominees and add in one or two of either the fantasy or contemporary ones to hit the final Oscar nominees. Sometimes things come out of left field, but not always. The biggest mystery exclusion is Jingle Jangle, but we weren’t expecting a lot of it to begin with.

The Nominations

Best Period Art Direction

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Fantasy Art Direction

Birds of Prey
The Midnight Sky
Pinocchio
Tenet
Wonder Woman 1984

Best Contemporary Art Direction

Da 5 Bloods
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Palm Springs
The Prom
Promising Young Woman

Best Animation Art Direction

The Croods: A New Age
Onward
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Art Directors Guild Data

Year Founded: 1937
First Awards: 1996 (25)

Precursor: 23rd Film Music Critics Awards (2020)

If you’re looking for accurate predictors of the Oscars, look elsewhere. The Film Music Critics, which used to announce after the Oscars, are now announcing in the midst of the lead-up to them. That said, the selections here were far outside the norms we’ve been seeing. They even chose Wolfwalkers over Soul if that tells you anything. Don’t look for their selections to have much of an impact.

Awards Tallies

(2) The Personal History of David Copperfield, The Queen’s Gambit

The Awards

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Precursor: 12th Make-Up Artists Guild Nominations (2020)

The strange case of Bill & Ted Face the Music is rather puzzling. How can it compete in both Period and Contemporary categories. This sounds like an issue with eligibility. Either way, it doesn’t matter as the film was not shortlisted by the Academy. Of the films that were, Emma., The Glorias, The Little Things, and One Night in Miami were not included while the remainder of the ten films were. Of those six, Jingle Jangle and Pinocchio were the only ones with only a single nomination. This is bad news for Jingle and good news for Pinocchio as the latter got the ever important Special Make-Up Effects nomination alongside shortlisters Hilbilly Elegy and Mulan. It’s difficult to say just how much influence these will have on Oscar’s nominations, but they are the closest indication as to how the Makeup Artists and Hairstylists may be looking at the 2020 landscape.

Nominations Tallies

(4) Bill & Ted Face the Music
(3) Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan
(2) Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, The Prom, Promising Young Woman

The Nominations

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Precursor: 73rd Writers Guild Nominations (2020)

The Writers Guild of America is the only guild that refuses to nominate any film that doesn’t work under a WGA contract. As such, animated films, certain independents, many foreign language films, and all Quentin Tarantino films are ineligible for consideration. That said, their choices are pretty solid precursors for Oscar consideration. The most surprising titles missing: In Original Screenplay, both Jack Fincher (Mank) and Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) are missing as are Minari and Soul. The latter two are most likely excluded due lack of WGA purview. As for the other two, they are a bit more surprising. Palm Springs, Sound of Metal, and Judas and the Black Messiah are the clear winners here as both Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 were expected.

In Adapted Screenplay, The Father, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, First Cow, and especially Nomadland are the big losers here whereas Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The White Tiger are the biggest surprises. Neither were expected to compete, but could be in the thick of things now that they’ve got this mention. The Academy doesn’t have a category for documentary writing, so none of these are surprising or expected. The most notable thing about this list is that All In: The Fight for Democracy is the only documentary that made the Academy’s shortlist.

The Awards

Best Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah
Palm Springs
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

Documentary Screenplay

All In: The Fight for Democracy
The Dissident
Herb Alpert Is…
Red Penguins
Totally Under Control

Writers Guild of America Data

Year Founded: 1933
First Awards: 1948 (73)

Precursor: 12th GALECA Nominations (2020)

Of the seven films with 3 or more nominations, only one of them is directed by a straight white man. Apart from that, there’s not much original here, though the Candice Bergen nomination is a little left-field.

Award Tallies

(6) Minari
(5) Nomadland
(4) Promising Young Woman
(3) First Cow, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Sound of Metal

The Awards

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Precursor: 12th Denver Film Critics Nominations (2020)

Minari was the best represented film here, but Nomadland, Soul, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 also did very well. Promising Young Woman and films with black leads did poorly, however. Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom are all barely mentioned, which is a bit surprising.

Nominations Tallies

(6) Minari
(5) Nomadland, Soul, The Trial of the Chicago 7
(4) Mank
(3) The Forty-Year-Old Version, The Invisible Man, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Tenet

The Nominations

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Precursor: 19th San Francisco Critics Nominations (2020)

A quintuple indie line up marks this set of San Francisco Bay Area critics nominations. Matter of fact, the indies just kind of run roughshod over this year’s awards in general.

Nominations Tallies

(7) Nomadland
(6) Mank, Minari
(5) First Cow
(4) Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman
(3) The Father, Tenet, The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Nominations

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Precursor: 26th Critics Choice Nominations (2020)

The Critics Choice Association has announced their predictions for this year’s 93rd Oscars. That should say “nominations,” but their penchant for expanding categories to make enough room for all Oscar contenders is suspicious. They aren’t infallible, but they are generally pretty accurate. Of course, getting five out of eight or nine nominations to match is pretty easy. That said, their selections do match a lot of the other precursor selections so far this year with a bit of love for late-breaking films like The United States vs. Billie Holiday and Malcolm & Marie making up for their seeming dislike of Judas and the Black Messiah, sure to be a major contender when Oscar voting begins.

Nominations Tallies

(12) Mank
(10) Minari
(8) Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
(6) Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
(5) Sound of Metal, Tenet
(4) The Father, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
(3) Emma., Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

The Nominations

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Precursor: 5th Seattle Critics Nominations (2020)

Minari does surprisingly well with the Seattle film critics while The Trial of the Chicago 7 and One Nigh in Miami do disappointingly. Ma Rainey’s picked up a few citations, as did Da 5 Bloods, but neither were in Best Picture while Judas and the Black Messiah was.

Nominations Tallies

(8) Minari
(6) First Cow, Nomadland
(5) The Invisible Man, Mank, Tenet
(4) Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Promising Young Woman
(3) Birds of Prey, News of the World, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Nominations

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Precursor: 41st London Critics Awards (2020)

Although the uniquely American feel and setting of Nomadlan doesn’t seem like the kind of thing British critics would go for, it still pulled in three awards, though the loss of Best Director to Steve McQueen for a program that was released on the BBC rather than in theaters, should tell us that they didn’t absolutely love it. Shaun Parkes, About Endlessness, and Saint Maud were unique winners among other precursors.

Awards Tallies

(3) Nomadland, Saint Maud
(2) Rocks

The Awards

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