Showing us the films that are going to be Best Picture players, the American Cinema Editors have selected most of the safe and expected choices. There are no shocking omissions here that I can think of, though The Farewell didn’t seem like the kind of film that would make this list, but that does give the film a bit of a boost going into the Oscars.
Category: 92nd Oscars (2019)
You can always expect the Screen Actors Guild is going to shake up the conversation and this year is proof. Marriage Story missed out on an ensemble, but received three acting nominations. Meanwhile, Parasite got no individual nominations, but was included for the ensemble award. There weren’t a ton of surprises here with Parasite being the one exception. That nomination pretty much guarantees an Oscar Best Picture nomination. It also boosts Bombshell‘s fortunes.
Which performances and films were hurt by these nominations? Little Women was the big bust of the day, coming out empty-handed. The film has been doing modestly during awards season, but this result may well have doomed it. The gimmick of 1917 requires excellent actors to carry it off, but it wasn’t nominated either, but that’s less surprising. Waves was also shut out and considering its poor performance so far, it’s probably done for at this point. Robert De Niro, Antonio Banderas, Jonathan Pryce, and Adam Sandler are both hurt by this selection. Sandler and Banderas at least have a trail of nominations to boost their chances going into the Oscars, but De Niro appears to be out altogether.
Apart from Saoirse Ronan, Awkwafina took the biggest hit. A nomination here would have cemented her Oscar chances, now they appear to be mostly dashed. The same can be said of her Farewell co-star Shuzhen Zhao who has been doing well with critics, but stumbled here. In Supporting Actor, Jamie Foxx got a huge boost while Anthony Hopkins took a big hit as did John Lithgow and Timothée Chalamet, neither of whom seemed to be certain, but have now been mostly ignored. For Supporting Actress, besides Shuzhen, Annette Bening has her hopes for an Oscar nomination dashed. Kathy Bates is a special case as she was accidentally submitted in Best Actress instead of Best Supporting Actress, so she had a lot more competition. Nicole Kidman on the other hand gets a boost as Margot Robbie had been getting all the attention, but now she’s in too. It would be a rare occurrence of The Irishman and Bombshell both earned double nominations in the supporting categories.
(4) Bombshell, The Irishman, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
(3) Marriage Story
(2) Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker
The biggest surprise omission here is Little Women, while something as generally tradition as The Irishman was ignored as was 1917. That said, this list doesn’t carry any real surprises as many of the top contenders are here and Disney has once again dominated with all five slots in the Fantasy category.
The biggest news here is the absence of 1917. War films are often thought to be major players with this group. That said, some other noteworthy snubs include everything Disney in the main category (no new Star Wars, no Avengers: Endgame, no live-action remakes) and Ad Astra. Surprisingly, four of my five current predictions are on this list. Is Joker really going to make it in over 1917? I wouldn’t count on it.
The African American Film Critics Associaiton has announced its winners for 2019 and while they may predominantly select black winners, their awards don’t look terribly different from the mainstream, suggesting that diversity is finally spreading. No major surprises here, though this does pretty much tell us that Waves will not be manifesting as a dark horse contender at the Oscars.
(2) Dolemite Is My Name, Parasite, Waves
Another group with selections all over the place as Irishman takes Best Picture and a few other regulars win awards.
(2) Dolemite Is My Name, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Although the bulk of the awards went to Marriage Story, Parasite was selected as the Best Picture of the year. Marriage Story took three of the four acting prizes.
(4) Marriage Story
(2) Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).
When you have almost two-dozen groups announcing their winners, you know you’re in the full swing of Oscar season. Next week will be even more crazy.
But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:
Tuesday, Dec. 10 – African American Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 10 – Audio Society (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Dec. 10 – Costume Designers (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Dec. 10 – Preliminary Voting Ends (Official)
Wednesday, Dec. 11 – Phoenix Circle (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Wednesday, Dec. 11 – Cinema Editors (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Dec. 11 – Screen Actors (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Dec. 12 – Chicago Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Dec. 12 – Goya Awards (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Friday, Dec. 13 – Las Vegas Critics (Awards) (Official)
Friday, Dec. 13 – Vancouver Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Friday, Dec. 13 – Sound Editors (Nominations) (Official)
Saturday, Dec. 14 – Boston Online Critics (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Dec. 14 – Chicago Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Dec. 15 – Boston Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Dec. 15 – Houston Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 15 – Kansas City Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Dec. 15 – Phoenix Circle (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 15 – St. Louis Critics (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Dec. 16 – Dallas Area Critics (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Dec. 16 – Indiana Journalists (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 16 – Nevada Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 16 – North Texas Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 16 – North Texas Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 16 – Seattle Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 16 – Utah Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 16 – Vancouver Critics (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Dec. 16 – Shortlists Announced (Official)
With a single nomination separating them, The Irishman and Parasite, both competing to be the most awarded Best Picture winner this year, came out on top of this list, which seems to reflect a lot of what we’ve seen so far.
(10) The Irishman
(8) Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
(7) 1917, Little Women
(5) The Farewell, Marriage Story, Uncut Gems
(4) The Lighthouse
(3) Joker, Us
Going for left field, Philadelphia’s film critics gave their prize for Best Picture to Knives Out whiel divvying up most of their awards between Irishman, Little Women, Once Upon a Time and others.
(2) The Irishman, Knives Out, Little Women, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Another strong outing for Parasite, which is emerging as the most prominent film in the Best Picture race according to critics while Irishman and Marriage Story remain strong.
(2) The Irishman, Marriage Story
Disney dominates the Fantasy Art Direction category with a single film, Ad Astra, not produced by the Mouse House. They show up with three titles in the animation category as well, but nowhere else. A lot of the expected competitors are here with Ford v Ferrari and Joker a bit surprising and the absence of films like Little Women, Downton Abbey, and Dolemite Is My Name a bit shocking.
The pace of screeners this week was a bit lighter. The first batch is from a company I’m not familiar with (and who didn’t exactly denote they were in the packaging), but they sent two documentaries. Amazon followed that with Annapurna right behind. Amazon came through again with another four films and then Fox Searchlight finished out the week.
With the Golden Globe nominations this morning, some campaigns received a shot in the arm while others took a dive. Marriage Story surprisingly topped the nominations with key entries in nearly every category except Best Director, which isn’t the best sign. Irishman and Once Upon a Time also did well with Two Popes and Parasite benefiting greatly. Annette Bening’s chances at an Oscar nomination just improved while Adam Sandler’s took a hit.
(6) Marriage Story
(5) The Irishman, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
(4) The Two Popes
(3) Knives Out, 1917, Parasite, Rocketman
Apparently, the folks voting in St. Louis aren’t fans of Joker, a film that’s been earning Best Picture citations alongside myriad other nominations and awards is nominated here as Worst Film and it will probably be the only group to feel that way. A lot of the regulars are here as well with Long Day’s Journey Into Night being the only utterly confusing selection on the list.
(10) Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
(9) The Irishman, Marriage Story
(5) Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Parasite
(4) Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Joker, The Two Popes