93rd Academy Awards (2020): The Hopefuls

UPDATED: February 15, 2021

With all of the shortlists released and most of the precursors left to announce are guilds (all except SAG, which has already announced), this list is the closest yet to what the final list will look like. Best Picture was incredibly difficult to select as there are about 12 or 13 films vying for up to 10 slots. Next year, there will be no fewer than 10, but for now, it’s a rather challenging race to predict.

I also modified the legend below as to which films are eligible. Any title that has appeared on a short list is most definitely eligible, so all of those titles have had the (E) or (S) or whatever mark stripped from them.

Legend of Release Designations

(E) = Eligible
(T) = Tentative
(S) = Streaming
(U) = Unknown
All titles that have been confirmed have had the designation removed

NOMINATIONS

AWARDS

11
8
7
6

5
4

3





Mank
Da 5 Bloods
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland (E)
Soul
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman (E)
Emma.
The Father (T)
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Tenet
4
3
2



1






Nomadland (E)
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman (E)
Soul
Another Round
Boys State
A Concerto Is a Conversation
The Father (T)
Feeling Through
Out
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Picture

  • Nomadland (E) – Searchlight (c-9/15, n-9/15, o-1/11)
  •  
  • Da 5 Bloods – Netflix (c-9/15, n-9/15)
  • Judas and the Black Messiah – Warner Bros. (c-2/15, n-2/15)
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Netflix (c-9/15, n-11/13)
  • Mank – Netflix (c-9/15, n-9/15)
  • Minari – A24 (c-11/15, n-1/11)
  • One Night in Miami – Amazon (c-9/15, n-1/11)
  • Promising Young Woman (E) – Focus (c-3/6, n-3/6)
  • Soul – Disney (c-11/15, n-11/15)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Paramount (c-3/6, n-3/6)
  •  
  • The Assistant (E) – Bleecker Street (c-9/15)
  • The Father (T) – Sony Pictures Classics (c-11/15)
  • First Cow (E) – A24 (c-9/15)
  • Never Rarely Sometimes Always (E) – Focus (c-9/15)
  • News of the World – Universal (c-3/6)
  • Sound of Metal – Amazon (c-1/11)

Best Animated Film

  • Soul – Pixar (c-3/6, n-3/6, o-3/6)
  •  
  • The Croods: A New Age – DreamWorks (c-3/6, n-11/13)
  • Onward – Pixar (c-3/6, n-3/6)
  • Over the Moon – Netflix (c-3/6, n-11/13)
  • Wolfwalkers – Gkids (c-3/6, n-1/11)
  •  
  • Accidental Luxuriance of the Translucent Watery Rebus – Kaos (c-1/28)
  • Bombay Rose – Netflix (c-1/28)
  • Calamity – Unknown (c-1/28)
  • Demon Slayer -Kimetsu No Yaiba- The Movie: Mugen Train – FUNimation (c-1/28)
  • Dreambuilders – Unknown (c-1/28)
  • Earwig and the Witch – Gkids (c-1/28)
  • Kill It and Leave This Town – Unknown (c-1/28)
  • Lupin III: The First – Gkids (c-1/28)
  • Mosley – Unknown (c-1/28)
  • My Favorite War – Unknown (c-1/28)
  • No.7 Cherry Lane – Unknown (c-1/28)
  • Nos Ili Zagovor Ne Takikh – Unknown (c-1/28)
  • On-Gaku: Our Sound – Gkids (c-1/28)
  • Red Shoes and the Seven Dwarfs – Lionsgate (c-1/28)
  • Ride Your Wave – Gkids (c-9/15)
  • Scoob! – Warner Bros. (c-3/6)
  • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon – Aardman (c-3/6)
  • The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run – Nickelodeon (c-3/6)
  • Terra Willy – Viva Pictures (c-1/28)
  • Trolls World Tour – DreamWorks (c-3/6)
  • A Whisker Away – Netflix (c-1/28)
  • The Willoughbys – Netflix (c-3/6)
  •  

All of the Animated Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders. The fifteen films separated at the bottom are not organized in order of likelihood as they are unlikely to get nominated anyway.

Best Directing

  • Nomadland (E) – Chloé Zhao (c-9/15, n-9/15, o-1/11)
  •  
  • Da 5 Bloods – Spike Lee (c-9/15, n-11/13)
  • Minari – Lee Isaac Chung (c-11/15, n-1/11)
  • Promising Young Woman (E) – Emerald Fennell (c-3/6, n-1/11)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin (c-3/6, n-11/13)
  •  
  • Ammonite – Francis Lee (c-9/15)
  • The Assistant (E) – Kitty Green (c-9/15)
  • The Father (T) – Florian Zeller (c-11/15)
  • First Cow (E) – Kelly Reichardt (c-9/15)
  • The Forty-Year-Old Version (S) – Radha Blank (c-9/15)
  • Judas and the Black Messiah – Shaka King (c-2/15)
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – George C. Wolfe (c-9/15)
  • Mank – David Fincher (c-9/15)
  • Never Rarely Sometimes Always (E) – Eliza Hittman (c-9/15)
  • News of the World – Paul Greengrass (c-3/6)
  • One Night in Miami – Regina King (c-9/15)
  • Sound of Metal – Darius Marder (c-2/15)
  • Tenet – Christopher Nolan (c-3/6)

Best Actor

  • Anthony Hopkins – The Father (T) ()
  •  
  • Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (c-1/11, n-2/15)
  • Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (c-3/6, n-11/15)
  • Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (c-9/15, n-1/11)
  • Gary Oldman – Mank (c-9/15, n-9/15)
  •  
  • Ben Affleck – The Way Back (E) (c-3/6)
  • Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami (c-9/15)
  • Eli Goree – One Night in Miami (c-9/15)
  • Tom Hanks – News of the World (c-3/6)
  • John Magaro – First Cow (E) (c-1/11)
  • Mads Mikkelsen – Another Round (c-2/15)
  • Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian (c-2/15)
  • Steven Yeun – Minari (c-11/15)

Best Actress

  • Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (E) (c-3/6, n-3/6, o-3/6)
  •  
  • Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (c-3/6, n-3/6)
  • Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (S) (c-11/15, n-1/11)
  • Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead (c-9/15, n-1/11)
  • Frances McDormand – Nomadland (E) (c-9/15, n-9/15)
  •  
  • Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy (S) (c-2/15)
  • Nicole Beharie – Miss Juneteenth (S) (c-9/15)
  • Radha Blank – The Forty-Year-Old Version (S) (c-9/15)
  • Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things (S) (c-1/11)
  • Carrie Coon – The Nest (E) (c-9/15)
  • Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (c-2/15)
  • Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (E) (c-9/15)
  • Julia Garner – The Assistant (E) (c-3/6)
  • Lesley Manville – Ordinary Love (E) (c-3/6)
  • Elisabeth Moss – The Invisible Man (c-2/15)
  • Elisabeth Moss – Shirley (S) (c-9/15)
  • Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit (T) (c-11/15)
  • Kate Winslet – Ammonite (c-9/15)
  • Malcolm & Marie (c-2/15)

Best Supporting Actor

  • Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami (c-9/15, n-11/13, o-1/11)
  •  
  • Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (c-1/11, n-2/15)
  • Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  • Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (c-2/9, n-2/15)
  • Bill Murray – On the Rocks (S) (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  •  
  • Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (c-3/6)
  • Bo Burnham – Promising Young Woman (E) (c-1/11)
  • Charles Dance – Mank (c-11/13)
  • Brian Dennehy – Driveways (S) (c-1/11)
  • Colman Domingo – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (c-2/15)
  • Aldis Hodge – One Night in Miami (c-9/15)
  • Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (c-1/11)
  • Jared Leto – The Little Things (c-2/15)
  • Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (c-1/11)
  • Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (c-1/11)
  • David Strathairn – Nomadland (E) (c-9/15)
  • Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (c-1/11)

Best Supporting Actress

  • Amanda Seyfried – Mank (c-9/15, n-11/15, o-1/11)
  •  
  • Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  • Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (S) (c-11/15, n-1/11)
  • Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (S) (c-9/15, n-2/15)
  • Olivia Colman – The Father (T) (c-9/15, n-9/15)
  •  
  • Toni Collette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things (S) (c-1/11)
  • Olivia Cooke – Sound of Metal (c-1/11)
  • Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite (c-9/15)
  • Talia Ryder – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (E) (c-2/15)
  • Minari (c-1/11)
  • Helena Zengel – News of the World (c-2/15)

Best Original Screenplay

  • Promising Young Woman (E) – Emerald Fennell (c-3/6, n-9/15, o-1/11)
  •  
  • Mank – Jack Fincher (c-9/15, n-2/15)
  • Minari – Lee Isaac Chung (c-11/15, n-1/11)
  • Soul – Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers (c-11/15, n-11/15)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin (c-3/6, n-3/6)
  •  
  • The Assistant (E) – Kitty Green (c-3/6)
  • Da 5 Bloods – Danny Bilson, Paul Demeo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee (c-9/15)
  • The Forty-Year-Old Version (S) – Radha Blank (c-9/15)
  • Miss Juneteenth (S) – Channing Godfrey Peoples (c-9/15)
  • Never Rarely Sometimes Always (E) – Eliza Hittman (c-9/15)
  • Palm Springs (S) – Andy Siara (c-1/11)
  • Sound of Metal – Darius Marder, Abraham Marder (c-2/15)
  • The Twentieth Century (E) – Matthew Rankin (c-1/11)
  • The Vast of Night (S) – Andrew Patterson, Craig W. Sanger (c-9/15)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Nomadland (E) – Chloé Zhao (c-9/15, n-9/15, o-11/13)
  •  
  • The Father (T) – Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (c-11/15, n-11/15)
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ruben Santiago-Hudson (c-9/15, n-11/15)
  • News of the World – Luke Davies (c-3/6, n-2/15)
  • One Night in Miami – Kemp Powers (c-9/15, n-1/11)
  •  
  • First Cow (E) – Jonathan Raymond, Kelly Reichardt (c-9/15)
  • I’m Thinking of Ending Things (S) – Charlie Kaufman (c-9/15)

Best Original Song

  • Speak Now – One Night in Miami (c-1/11, n-1/11, o-1/11)
  •  
  • Hear My Voice – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  • Husavik – Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (c-1/11, n-2/9)
  • Io Si (Seen) – The Life Ahead (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • Turntables – All In: The Fight for Democracy (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  •  
  • Fight for You – Judas and the Black Messiah (c-2/9)
  • Free – One and Only Ivan (c-2/9)
  • Green – Sound of Metal (c-2/9)
  • Loyal Brave True – Mulan (c-1/11)
  • Make It Work – Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story (c-2/9)
  • Never Break – Giving Voice (c-2/9)
  • Rain Song – Minari (c-2/9)
  • See What You’ve Done – Belly of the Beast (c-2/9)
  • Show Me Your Soul – Mr. Soul! (c-2/9)
  • Wuhan Flu – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (c-1/11)

All of the Songs listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Original Score

  • Mank – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (c-9/15, n-9/15, o-11/13)
  •  
  • Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  • The Midnight Sky – Alexandre Desplat (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  • Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jonathan Batiste (c-3/6, n-11/13)
  • Tenet – Ludwig Goransson (c-3/6, n-3/6)
  •  
  • Ammonite – Volker Bertelmann, Dustin O’Halloran (c-9/15)
  • Blizzard of Souls – Lolita Ritmanis (c-2/9)
  • The Invisible Man – Benjamin Wallfisch (c-2/9)
  • Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story – John Debney, Michael Diskint (c-2/9)
  • The Life Ahead – Gabriel Yared (c-2/9)
  • The Little Things – Thomas Newman (c-2/9)
  • Minari – Emile Mosseri (c-1/11)
  • Mulan – Harry Gregson-Williams (c-2/9)
  • News of the World – James Newton Howard (c-3/6)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Daniel Pemberton (c-3/6)

All of the Scores listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Editing

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten (c-3/6, n-9/15, o-1/11)
  •  
  • Da 5 Bloods – Adam Gough (c-9/15, n-1/11)
  • Judas and the Black Messiah – Kristan Sprague (c-2/15, n-2/15)
  • Mank – Kirk Baxter (c-9/15, n-9/15)
  • Nomadland (E) – Chloé Zhao (c-9/15, n-1/11)
  •  
  • Ammonite – Chris Wyatt (c-9/15)
  • The Assistant (E) – Kitty Green, Blair McClendon (c-9/15)
  • The Father (T) – Yorgos Lamprinos (c-1/11)
  • The Forty-Year-Old Version (S) – Robert Grigsby Wilson (c-9/15)
  • I’m Thinking of Ending Things (S) – Robert Frazen (c-1/11)
  • The Invisible Man – Andy Canny (c-2/15)
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Andrew Mondshein (c-9/15)
  • Minari – Harry Yoon (c-11/15)
  • Never Rarely Sometimes Always (E) – Scott Cummings (c-9/15)
  • News of the World – William Goldeberg (c-3/6)
  • One Night in Miami – Tariq Anwar (c-9/15)
  • Promising Young Woman (E) – Frederic Thoraval (c-3/6)
  • Sound of Metal – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen (c-1/11)
  • Tenet – Jennifer Lame (c-3/6)
  • Time (S) – Gabriel Rhodes (c-1/11)

Best Cinematography

  • Nomadland (E) – Joshua James Richards (c-9/15, n-11/13, o-1/11)
  •  
  • Da 5 Bloods – Newton Thomas Sigel (c-9/15, n-1/11)
  • Mank – Erik Messerschmidt (c-9/15, n-11/13)
  • News of the World – Dariusz Wolski (c-3/6, n-2/15)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Phedon Papamichael (c-3/6, n-1/11)
  •  
  • Ammonite – Stéphanie Fontaine (c-9/15)
  • First Cow (E) – Christopher Blauvelt (c-1/11)
  • The Forty-Year-Old Version (S) – Eric Branco (c-9/15)
  • The Midnight Sky – Martin Ruhe (c-2/15)
  • Minari – Lachlan Milne (c-2/15)
  • Mulan – Mandy Walker (c-3/6)
  • The Personal History of David Copperfield (E) – Zac Nicholson (c-9/15)
  • Tenet – Hoyte Van Hoytema (c-3/6)
  • Vitalina Varela (E) – Leonardo Simoes (c-1/11)

Best Production Design

  • Mank – Donald Graham Burt; Jan Pascale (c-9/15, n-9/15, o-11/13)
  •  
  • Ammonite – Sarah Finlay; Sohpie Hervieu (c-9/15, n-9/15)
  • Emma. – Kave Quinn; Stella Fox (c-3/6, n-1/11)
  • Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story – Gavin Bocquet; Rob Cameron (c-2/15, n-2/15)
  • The Personal History of David Copperfield (E) – Cristina Casali; Charlotte Dirickx (c-3/6, n-11/13)
  •  
  • Beanpole (E) – Sergey Ivanov (c-1/11)
  • Birds of Prey – K.K. Barrett; Florencia Martin (c-1/11)
  • First Cow (E) – Anthony Gasparro; Vanessa Knoll (c-9/15)
  • I’m Thinking of Ending Things (S) – Molly Hughes; Mattie Siegal (c-1/11)
  • Judas and the Black Messiah – Sam Lisenco; Rebecca Brown (c-2/15)
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Mark Ricker; Karen O’Hara, Diana Stoughton (c-9/15)
  • Mulan – Grant Major; Anne Kuljian (c-3/6)
  • News of the World – David Crank; Elizabeth Keenan (c-3/6)
  • One Night in Miami – Page Buckner (c-9/15)
  • Rebecca (S) – Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer (c-9/15)
  • Shirley (S) – Sue Chan; Alexander Linde (c-1/11)
  • Tenet – Nathan Crowley; Emmanuel Dells, Kathy Lucas (c-3/6)
  • Tesla (E) – Carl Sprague, Tricia Peck (c-9/15)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Shane Valentino; Andrew Baseman (c-3/6)
  • The Vast of Night (S) – Adam Dietrich (c-9/15)

Best Costume Design

  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ann Roth (c-9/15, n-11/13, o-11/13)
  •  
  • Emma. – Alexandra Byrne (c-3/6, n-3/6)
  • Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story – Michael Wilkinson (c-2/15, n-2/15)
  • Mank – Trish Summerville (c-9/15, n-11/13)
  • The Personal History of David Copperfield (E) – Suzie Harman, Robert Worley (c-3/6, n-11/13)
  •  
  • Ammonite – Michael O’Connor (c-9/15)
  • Birds of Prey – Erin Benach (c-1/11)
  • First Cow (E) – April Napier (c-9/15)
  • Judas and the Black Messiah – Charlese Antoinette Jones (c-2/15)
  • Mulan – Bina Daigeler (c-3/6)
  • News of the World – Mark Bridges (c-3/6)
  • One Night in Miami – Francine Jamison-Tanchuck (c-9/15)
  • Promising Young Woman (E) – Nancy Steiner (c-2/15)
  • Sylvie’s Love (S) – Phoenix Mellow (c-1/11)
  • Tesla (E) – Soifja Mesicek (c-9/15)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Susan Lyall (c-3/6)
  • The Vast of Night (S) – Jamie Reed (c-9/15)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (c-9/15, n-11/13, o-11/13)
  •  
  • Birds of Prey (c-3/6, n-1/11)
  • Emma. (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  • Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Story (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • Mank (c-9/15, n-9/15)
  •  
  • The Glorias (c-2/9)
  • Hillbilly Elegy (c-2/9)
  • The Little Things (c-2/9)
  • One Night in Miami (c-9/15)
  • Pinocchio (c-2/9)

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Makeup branch and the final three nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Sound

  • Soul (c-3/6, n-1/11, o-1/11)
  •  
  • Da 5 Bloods (c-9/15, n-11/13)
  • The Midnight Sky (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  • Sound of Metal (c-2/16, n-2/16)
  • Tenet (c-3/6, n-3/6)
  •  
  • Birds of Prey (c-3/6)
  • Greenland (S) (c-9/15)
  • Greyhound (S) (c-1/11)
  • The Invisible Man (c-9/15)
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (c-1/11)
  • Mank (c-9/15)
  • Mulan (c-3/6)
  • News of the World (c-3/6)
  • One Night in Miami (c-1/11)
  • The Outpost (S) (c-9/15)
  • The Prom (S) (c-9/15)
  • The Vast of Night (S) (c-9/15)
  • Wonder Woman 1984 (E) (c-3/6)

Best Visual Effects

  • Tenet (c-3/6, n-3/6, o-11/13)
  •  
  • Birds of Prey (c-1/11, n-2/9)
  • Mank (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • The Midnight Sky (c-1/11, n-1/11)
  • Mulan (c-3/6, n-9/15)
  •  
  • Bloodshot (c-2/9)
  • Love and Monsters (c-2/9)
  • The One and Only Ivan (c-2/9)
  • Soul (c-2/9)
  • Welcome to Chechnya (c-2/9)

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Visual Effects branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Another Round – Denmark (c-1/28, n-1/29, o-1/29)
  •  
  • Collective – Romania (c-1/28, n-2/9)
  • La Llorona – Guatemala (c-1/28, n-1/29)
  • Night of the Kings – Ivory Coast (c-1/28, n-2/9)
  • Two of Us – France (c-1/28, n-1/29)
  •  
  • Better Days – Hong Kong (c-1/28)
  • Charlatan – Czech Republic (c-1/28)
  • Dear Comrades! – Russia (c-1/28)
  • Hope – Norway (c-1/28)
  • I’m No Longer Here – Mexico (c-1/28)
  • The Man Who Sold His Skin – Tunisia (c-1/28)
  • The Mole Agent – Chile (c-1/28)
  • Quo Vadis, Aida? – Bosnia and Herzegovina (c-1/28)
  • A Sun – Taiwan (c-1/28)
  • Sun Children – Iran (c-1/28)
  •  

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Foreign Language Film branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Documentary Feature

  • Boys State (c-1/28, n-1/29, o-1/29)
  •  
  • All In: The Fight for Democracy (c-1/28, n-1/29)
  • Dick Johnson Is Dead (c-1/28, n-1/29)
  • MLK/FBI (c-1/28, n-1/29)
  • Time (c-1/28, n-2/9)
  •  
  • 76 Days (c-1/28)
  • Collective (c-1/28)
  • Crip Camp (c-1/28)
  • Gunda (c-1/28)
  • The Mole Agent (c-1/28)
  • My Octopus Teacher (c-1/28)
  • Notturno (c-1/28)
  • The Painter and Thief (c-1/28)
  • The Truffle Hunters (c-1/28)
  • Welcome to Chechnya (c-1/28)
  •  

All of the Documentary Features listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • A Concerto Is a Conversation (c-2/9, n-2/9, o-2/9)
  •  
  • Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • Colette (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • Do Not Split (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • A Love Song for Latasha (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  •  
  • Call Center Blues (c-2/9)
  • Hunger Ward (c-2/9)
  • Hysterical Girl (c-2/9)
  • The Speed Cubers (c-2/9)
  • What Would Sophia Loren Do? (c-2/9)

All of the Short Subjects listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Animated Short Film

  • Out (c-2/9, n-2/9, o-2/9)
  •  
  • Burrow (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • If Anything Happens I Love You (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • To Gerard (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • Traces (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  •  
  • Genius Loci (c-2/9)
  • Kapaemahu (c-2/9)
  • Opera (c-2/9)
  • The Snail and the Whale (c-2/9)
  • Yes-People (c-2/9)

All of the Animated Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Feeling Through (c-2/9, n-2/9, o-2/9)
  •  
  • The Human Voice (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • The Letter Room (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • The Present (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  • White Eye (c-2/9, n-2/9)
  •  
  • Bittu (c-2/9)
  • Da Yie (c-2/9)
  • The Kicksled Choir (c-2/9)
  • Two Distant Strangers (c-2/9)
  • The Van (c-2/9)

All of the Live Action Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

NEW: March 6, 2020

It’s time to start another year. March is awfully early to make these things and the end result feels very sparse and unfocused. Hell, there were so few known quantities at this point that even the Best Supporting Actress roster is exceptionally vacant.

UPDATED: September 17, 2020

With theaters finally opening back up, the Oscar landscape is beginning to take shape. Sort of. The Academy introduced new rules regarding streaming and release dates, extending two months into 2021 and potentially causing problems for critics groups who will largely work off the calendar year model. That said, we have a good idea of what films will be jockeying for consideration, yet there are several films that are still big questions marks and with theaters struggling to draw audiences back, what is currently scheduled may not be scheduled the closer to the end of the year we get.

Since there is so much confusion over what could be eligible and what might not be, I’ve labeled every title in this list with a letter designation in parentheses. This designation should help give you an idea of how influx this season is.

Anything labeled with an (E) is Eligible. These are films that have confirmed theatrical releases and box office numbers to track that. Whether all of them played in the requisite theaters is an unknown since New York and California have largely kept their theaters closed. The label (T) is a film that is tentatively scheduled for release in 2020. They have a specified release date and, unless the studios play pick-up sticks with their release schedules, which seems likely at this point, they could drop off altogether and shift to 2021 like a number of films already have. (S) will designate any film that released streaming instead of theatrically. These come from the normal culprits like Netflix, but also other services like Hulu, Amazon Prime, HBO Max, Disney Plus and likely others. The question with these films is whether they met the Academy’s regulations for streaming in lieu of theatrical releases. So, these films, although they have already released, might be ruled ineligible at any time between now and the end of the year/February of next year. Finally, we have (U). These titles are thought to be 2020 releases, but have either had their release dates pulled in the interim or which have not gotten scheduled yet. These titles could play in 2020 or could shift to 2021, it’s impossible to know right now.

Now, onto my scattered but quick thoughts. I struggled with a lot of these choices. Some films (On the Rocks, Judah and the Black Messiah, and a handful of other titles) don’t really strike me as Oscar-friendly movies. That said, I could be entirely wrong on them. Some films have tumbled with mediocre reviews (Tenet) while others have burst onto the scene with late-season film festival releases (Ammonite, Nomadland, and One Night in Miami for example). Right now, things are too influx to get a good read on things, but some films seem better poised for Oscar nominations than others at this juncture and I hope most of my choices reflect that. I also feel that I may have overdone some categories with far too many nominees, but at this point, I suspect the list will dwindle to a manageable level once movies start departing for 2021.

UPDATED: November 13, 2020

As the pandemic worsens, it looks like theaters will be shuttering again and with so many tentpoles having vacated 2020, a lot of changes were made below. I updated all of the tentative, eligible, streaming, and unknown ratings for the films on the list, pushing out films like The French Dispatch, No Time to Die, and Dune, which have all moved to sunnier pastures. I had to change at least two nomination predictions in each category and, for the first time in years, the Best Visual Effects category is looking very slim indeed.

UPDATED: November 15, 2020

This was a minor update. I hadn’t realized that I still had Boys in the Band slotted anywhere since the film just didn’t get good enough reviews. Beyond that, I added some other films I had forgotten or not considered in my prior update.

UPDATED: January 12, 2021

With precursors starting to come out hot and heavy, I thought it was time to update my list. This is an extensive re-aligning list, so there’s no way I can encompass all of the numerous changes in one post, so just look through it all because nothing is the same as it was two months ago.

19 Comments

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  1. Just read that SpongeBob pulled out of the animated race and the Russian film is now going by its translated title, “The Nose or the Conspiracy of Mavericks.” The whole animated has been upended! (I’m joking)

    Loving the look of these predictions, hoping for a strong set of nominees. I’m thinking Judas might have a shot at Original Screenplay. Sound of Metal I’m hoping for a sound nomination. I don’t think Beanpole can compete in anything this year because it was up for International Film last year. I remember City of God didn’t compete in Foreign Film so that it could score nominations the following year (good call for that movie). Have the released the eligibility list yet? I haven’t come across it.

    1. They haven’t released the full reminder list of eligible films yet. I believe it will come out closer to the nominations voting period beginning.

      I kept forgetting Sound of Metal in sound, but I have added it since. I get a Quiet Place kind of vibe from it. I also apparently forgot to put Judas in any of the screenwriting categories. I’ll have to go in and rectify that, but that’s partly because WGA came out after our deadline for predictions. Will probably wait until all the guild precursors are out before updating one last time.

  2. Any idea when we will see an updated set of predictions, especially from the entire CS crew? I’ve been coming here for years and you always have the best track record on predictions over the long haul for noms. And I track 55 different pundits/sources. I’m a geek…what can I say?

    1. We are working on them right now and should have our next update out this week.

  3. Guess it’s time to start considering Jared Leto for supporting actor. It’s weird, I’ve seen the movie, and it’s a fine thriller, nothing we haven’t seen before, and Leto is good in it. But it never once occurred to me that people would consider it an award-worthy performance.

    1. I hope he isn’t nominated again. The only time I ever thought he was nomination worthy was Requiem for a Dream.

      1. Me either, it’s just such a nothing performance in a nothing movie.

        Daniel Kaluuya also has a really good shot at getting in, and I hear that’s a much better movie.

  4. Less than a month now until the short lists are out! I hate this long season, they should’ve just left it alone.

  5. So, I have some possibilities for Best Hair & Make-Up:

    – Bill & Ted Face the Music
    – Borat: Subsequent Moviefilim

    Just think with this year and how we’re used to seeing oddball finalists in this category, these two could sneak in to at least the finalists. Hell, we had Jackass’ Bad Grandpa become a nominee.

  6. Respect has been moved back to August I think. I think the next update is going to look VERY different!

    1. Did not see this comment. I just updated the day after you posted.

      1. Yeah good timing! Always excited for your updates so I can add new stuff to my watch list. I’ve watched things like Babyteeth and Premature and Miss Juneteenth after seeing them on your list. The only really disappointing movie I’ve seen off this list was Devil All the Time. Pattinson is barely in it, and the movie is kind of a bummer overall. Holland is quite good though.

        1. Yeah. That movie had some solid reviews, but not the kind that keep it going.

          1. Might be time to consider Sound of Metal, buzz on that one is growing. Also Wolfwalkers seems like a great bet for animated. This is usually when we’d be starting to see the short lists and it feels weird to know they’re still two months away.

            1. I honestly thought I had Sound of Metal on here. For animation, I tend to wait for the final eligibility list to include, though I probably should update some.

  7. French Dispatch is 2021 too. It’s gonna be a really weird year.

    1. That is a quandary, though. Everything I’ve heard is that French Dispatch may release early 2021, which would still fit into the Academy’s extended eligibility window for this year…

  8. Awesome update, just added a bunch of stuff to my watch list! Children of the Sea and Marona were actually on the animated list last year, but it reminded me I want to see them both.

    And then, Disney went and pushed Black Widow, West Side Story, and some other non-contenders into next year. D’oh.

    1. And the hits keep coming with Dune vacating 2020 as well. This list is already out of date.

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