91st Academy Awards (2018): The Hopefuls

FINAL: January 20, 2019

After a long precursor season with a lot of commonality and a lot of strange, unpredictable selections, it’s time to lay down my final predictions. I cannot promise I won’t change anything tomorrow, but I think these are pretty much it. I suspect there will only be 8 Best Picture nominees. That seems to be the most common number in recent years. I really hope If Beale Street Could Talk makes it through, but unfortunately all evidence suggests it’s not going to make it through.

Lock: It would be a major shock if these selections weren’t nominated. The buzz would be deafening.
Near Lock: These are selections that I think are pretty certain, but I cannot quite declare them as guarantees.
Good: There isn’t much of a chance that this nominee will be left off the list, but stranger things have happened.
Borderline: These are the achievements that I think are fighting for the slots not taken up by the locks, near locks and goods above. None of these selections are safe and could be bumped off by any other title with the “borderline” description.
Doubtful: These are outside contenders that have been in the conversation, but whose prospects have dimmed over time. They remain on the list because sometimes the Academy does some strange stuff.

Everything from Best Picture down through Best Documentary Feature have been placed in the order from most to least likely to be nominated. This year, I don’t have much confidence in the order presented as things are very fluid this year.

NOMINATIONS

AWARDS

10
9
8

7
6

5
4

3

A Star Is Born
First Man
Black Panther
The Favourite
Vice
BlacKkKlansman
Roma
Green Book
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
4

2


1








First Man
Roma
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Black Panther
Fauve
The Favourite
Lost & Found
Mary Poppins Returns
Period. End of Sentence.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
A Star Is Born
The Wife
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

NEW: May 28, 2018

I put together my list two months early because I had some time available to me. This is a very broad list of potential contenders, many of which will get pushed into 2019 and there will be a few missing as they haven’t been scheduled for 2018 yet.

Updated: August 17, 2018

The year’s Oscar race has failed to solidify at this late date. Only a few contenders have even emerged as potential nominees, thus my list feels incomplete, overfull, and inconsequential simultaneously. That said, there’s a new category on this page. While I may not agree with its existence, or its inclusion here, but I’ve chosen based on a number of factors even though there are no rules for it yet. Box office, budget, and/or number of screens released on.

Updated: October 5, 2018

With the festivals over and a few more films having been seen by critics, it was time to update my predictions. Although, there are still a lot of races with some potential fluctuation. Some films haven’t been seen yet, like Vice and The Mule, so we’re still in best-guess territory. There’s a little under two months left until the critics have their say and then thing should start solidifying.

Updated: October 8, 2018

I often go through my predictions as soon as I’ve made them and suddenly realize I’m missing a bunch of things or note I forgot to include something I had originally intended. As such, there’s a new update now with corrections entirely within the top categories and changing the name of Backseat to Vice.

Updated: November 12, 2018

I’ve made a few changes to my predictions, mostly shifting films in and out of consideration. I also pulled a handful of films that were pushed to 2019 from the list as well as removed any other films that appear no longer to be in contention.

Updated: December 9, 2018

In the heat of precursor season, things have started to coalesce. Here’s my latest predictions based on what’s been announced so far.

Updated: January 2, 2019

I started this update on the day the shortlists were announced. I didn’t finish the short film categories because I still wanted to review their subjects to decide what I would predict. I have finished that. Having said that, I did NOT update my predictions from that mid-December start point, so these might be slightly old and incongruous with what my final predictions will be right before the nominations.

Best Picture

  • Green Book – Universal (c-9/25, n-10/5, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • Roma – Netflix (c-3/20, n-10/5) — Lock —
  • The Favourite – Fox Searchlight (c-11/12, n-11/12) — Lock —
  • A Star Is Born – Warner Bros. (c-3/20, n-10/5) — Lock —
  • BlacKkKlansman – Focus Features (c-3/20, n-5/28) — Near Lock —
  • Vice – Annapurna (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Good —
  • Bohemian Rhapsody – Fox (c-1/20, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Black Panther – Marvel/Disney (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Borderline —
  • If Beale Street Could Talk – Annapurna (c-3/20, n-8/10) — Borderline —
  • First Man – Universal (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Crazy Rich Asians – Warner Bros. (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Eighth Grade – A24 (c-11/12) — Borderline —
  • First Reformed – A24 (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Fox Searchlight (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • A Quiet Place – Paramount (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
  • Widows – Fox (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Mary Poppins Returns – Disney (c-3/20) — Doubtful —

Best Animated Film

  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Sony Pictures (c-3/20, n-3/20, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • Isle of Dogs – Fox Searchlight (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Lock —
  • Incredibles 2 – Disney/Pixar (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Near Lock —
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet – Disney (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Near Lock —
  • Mirai – Gkids (c-10/24, n-11/12) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch – Universal (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Early Man – Aardman Animation/Lionsgate (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Ruben Brandt, Collector – Sony Pictures Classics (c-10/24) — Borderline —
  • Smallfoot – Warner Bros. (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Teen Titans Go! To the Movies – Warner Bros. (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Ana y Bruno – Unknown (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • Fireworks – Gkids (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • Have a Nice Day – Strand Releasing (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation – Sony Pictures (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Laws of the Universe – Part I – Eleven Arts (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • Liz and the Blue Bird – Eleven Arts (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • Lu over the Wall – Gkids (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms – Eleven Arts (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • MFKZ – Gkids (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • Night Is Short, Walk on Girl – Gkids (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • On Happiness Road – Unknown (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero – Fun Academy (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Sherlock Gnomes – Paramount (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Tall Tales – Unknown (c-10/24) — Doubtful —
  • Tito and the Birds – Shout! Factory (c-10/24) — Doubtful —

All of the Animated Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders. The fifteen films separated at the bottom are not organized in order of likelihood as they are unlikely to get nominated anyway.

Best Directing

  • Roma – Alfonso Cuaron (c-3/20, n-10/5, o-12/7) — Lock —
  •  
  • A Star Is Born – Bradley Cooper (c-8/10, n-10/5) — Lock —
  • BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee (c-3/20, n-5/28) — Near Lock —
  • Green Book – Peter Farrelly (c-9/25, n-10/5) — Borderline —
  • Vice – Adam McKay (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • The Favourite – Yorgos Lanthimos (c-11/12) — Borderline —
  • If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Black Panther – Ryan Coogler (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • First Man – Damien Chazelle (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • First Reformed – Paul Schrader (c-12/7) — Borderline —
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Marielle Heller (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Eighth Grade – Bo Burnham (c-11/12) — Doubtful —

Best Actor

  • Christian Bale – Vice (c-3/20, n-12/7, o-12/7) — Lock —
  •  
  • Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (c-3/20, n-10/5) — Lock —
  • Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Near Lock —
  • Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (c-9/25, n-1/20) — Good —
  • John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Ethan Hawke – First Reformed (c-12/7) — Borderline —
  • Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate (c-9/25) — Borderline —
  • Ryan Gosling – First Man (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Robert Redford – Old Man and the Gun (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Clint Eastwood – Mule (c-11/12) — Doubtful —

Best Actress

  • Glenn Close – The Wife (c-3/20, n-12/7, o-12/7) — Lock —
  •  
  • Olivia Colman – The Favourite (c-10/5, n-12/7) — Lock —
  • Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (c-3/20, n-8/10) — Lock —
  • Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Near Lock —
  • Viola Davis – Widows (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Yalitza Aparicio – Roma (c-11/12) — Borderline —
  • Toni Collette – Hereditary (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Rosamund Pike – A Private War (c-12/7) — Borderline —
  • Nicole Kidman – Destroyer (c-11/12) — Doubtful —
  • Regina Hall – Support the Girls (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade (c-11/12) — Doubtful —
  • Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns (c-3/20) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actor

  • Mahershala Ali – Green Book (c-9/25, n-10/8, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Near Lock —
  • Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Good —
  • Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Good —
  • Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (c-3/20, n-10/8) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Sam Rockwell – Vice (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Russell Crowe – Boy Erased (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Hugh Grant – Paddington 2 (c-3/20) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

  • Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (c-3/20, n-8/10, o-12/7) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Emma Stone – The Favourite (c-11/12, n-12/7) — Good —
  • Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (c-11/12, n-12/7) — Good —
  • Claire Foy – First Man (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Good —
  • Amy Adams – Vice (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots (c-3/20)
  • Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased (c-3/20)
  • Elizabeth Debicki – Widows (c-1/20)

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (c-11/12, n-12/7, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • Roma – Alfonso Cuaron (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Lock —
  • First Reformed – Paul Schrader (c-11/12, n-12/7) — Good —
  • Vice – Adam McKay (c-3/20, n-10/8) — Good —
  • Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly (c-9/25, n-10/5) — Good —
  •  
  • A Quiet Place – Bryan Woods, Scott Beck, John Krasinski (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Eighth Grade – Bo Burnham (c-10/8) — Borderline —
  • Blindspotting – Daveed Diggs, Rafael Casal (c-3/20) — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins (c-3/20, n-8/10, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Near Lock —
  • A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters (c-10/8, n-10/8) — Good —
  • BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott (c-3/20, n-5/28) — Borderline —
  • The Death of Stalin – Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin (c-12/7, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Black Panther – Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Widows – Gillian Flynn, Lynda La Plante, Steve McQueen (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • First Man – Josh Singer (c-3/20) — Borderline —

Best Original Song

  • Shallow – A Star Is Born (c-3/20, n-10/5, o-10/5) — Lock —
  •  
  • All the Stars – Black Panther (c-12/7, n-12/7) — Good —
  • The Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
  • I’ll Fight – RBG (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
  • Girl in the Movies – Dumplin’ (c-12/7, n-12/7) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Trip a Little Light Fantastic – Mary Poppins Returns (c-12/17) — Borderline —
  • Suspirium – Suspiria (c-12/17) — Borderline —
  • When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (c-12/17) — Borderline —
  • A Place Called Slaughter Race – Ralph Breaks the Internet (c-12/17) — Borderline —
  • Revelation – Boy Erased (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
  • Treasure – Beautiful Boy (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
  • Keep Reachin’ – Quincy (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
  • We Won’t Move – The Hate U Give (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
  • The Big Unknown – Widows (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
  • OYAHYTT – Sorry to Bother You (c-12/17) — Doubtful —

All of the Songs listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Original Score

  • First Man – Justin Hurwitz (c-3/20, n-3/20, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Near Lock —
  • Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat (c-12/7, n-12/17) — Good —
  • Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Borderline —
  • A Quiet Place – Marco Beltrami (c-12/17, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • BlacKkKlansman – Terence Blanchard (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Annihilation – Geoff Barrow, Ben Salisbury (c-12/17) — Borderline —
  • Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Vice – Nicholas Britell (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Ready Player One – Alan Silvestri (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • The Death of Stalin – Christopher Willis (c-12/17) — Borderline —
  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Carter Burwell (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
  • Avengers: Infinity War – Alan Silvestri (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
  • Crazy Rich Asians – Brian Tyler (c-12/17) — Doubtful —
  • Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – James Newton Howard (c-12/17) — Doubtful —

All of the Scores listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Editing

  • Roma – Alfonso Cuaron, Galo Olivares (c-3/20, n-3/20, o-12/7) — Good —
  •  
  • First Man – Tom Cross (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Good —
  • A Star Is Born – Jay Cassidy (c-12/7, n-12/7) — Borderline —
  • Vice – Hank Corwin (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  • BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown (c-3/20, n-5/28) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito (c-9/25) — Borderline —
  • The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis (c-11/12) — Borderline —
  • Black Panther – Debbie Berman, Michael P. Shawver (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • If Beale Street Could Talk – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Mission: Impossible – Fallout – Eddie Hamilton (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Crazy Rich Asians – Myron I. Kerstein (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • A Quiet Place – Christopher Tellefson (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Widows – Joe Walker (c-3/20) — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

  • Roma – Alfonso Cuaron (c-10/5, n-11/12, o-12/7) — Lock —
  •  
  • Cold War – Lukasz Zal (c-1/20, n-1/20) — Near Lock —
  • A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique (c-12/7, n-12/7) — Good —
  • The Favourite – Robbie Ryan (c-11/12, n-1/20) — Good —
  • First Man – Linus Sandgren (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • If Beale Street Could Talk – James Laxton (c-8/10) — Borderline —
  • Black Panther – Rachel Morrison (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • BlacKkKlansman – Chayse Irvin (c-5/28) — Borderline —
  • Mary Poppins Returns – Dion Beebe (c-3/20) — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

  • Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim (c-3/20, n-3/20, o-3/20) — Good —
  •  
  • The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (c-11/12, n-12/7) — Near Lock —
  • Black Panther – Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Good —
  • First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – Stuart Craig, Anna Pinnock (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Mary Queen of Scots – James Merifield, Gina Cromwell (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • The Nutcracker and the Four Realms – Guy Hendrix Dyas, Lisa Chugg (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • A Wrinkle in Time – Naomi Shohan, Elizabeth Keenan (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Annihilation – Mark Digby, Michelle Day (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Ready Player One – Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Colette – Michael Carlin, Lisa Chugg, Nora Talmaier (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Bohemian Rhapsody – Aaron Haye, Sarah White, Anna Lynch-Robinson (c-1/20) — Doubtful —
  • The House with a Clock in Its Walls – Jon Hutman, Ellen Brill (c-1/20) — Doubtful —
  • Crazy Rich Asians – Nelson Coates, Andrew Baseman (c-1/20) — Doubtful —
  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh (c-11/12) — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

  • Black Panther – Ruth Carter (c-3/20, n-3/20, o-3/20) — Good —
  •  
  • The Favourite – Sandy Powell (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Lock —
  • Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Good —
  • Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Good —
  • The Nutcracker and the Four Realms – Jenny Beavan (c-3/20, n-10/5) — Borderline —
  •  
  • A Wrinkle in Time – Paco Delgado (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • BlacKkKlansman – Marci Rodgers (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Colette – Andrea Flesch (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Bohemian Rhapsody – Julian Day (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Crazy Rich Asians – Mary E. Vogt (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – Colleen Atwood (c-3/20) — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Vice (c-10/5, n-10/5, o-12/7) — Good —
  •  
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (c-12/17, n-1/20) — Good —
  • Border (c-12/17, n-12/17) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Stan & Ollie (c-12/17) — Borderline —
  • Mary Queen of Scots (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Black Panther (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Suspiria (c-12/17) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Makeup branch and the final three nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Sound Mixing

  • First Man (c-3/20, n-3/20, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Near Lock —
  • A Quiet Place (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Good —
  • A Star Is Born (c-3/20, n-10/5) — Good —
  • Black Panther (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Good —
  •  
  • Roma (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Avengers: Infinity War (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Ready Player One (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Mary Poppins Returns (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Solo: A Star Wars Story (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Incredibles 2 (c-3/20) — Doubtful —
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet (c-3/20) — Doubtful —

Best Sound Editing

  • First Man (c-3/20, n-3/20, o-12/7) — Lock —
  •  
  • A Quiet Place (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Good —
  • Avengers: Infinity War (c-3/20, n-12/7) — Borderline —
  • Black Panther (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Solo: A Star Wars Story (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Roma (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • Mission: Impossible – Fallout (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Ready Player One (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Incredibles 2 (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (c-1/20) — Borderline —
  • The Favourite (c-1/20) — Borderline —

Best Visual Effects

  • First Man (c-3/20, n-3/20, o-1/20) — Lock —
  •  
  • Avengers: Infinity War (c-3/20, n-12/3) — Near Lock —
  • Ready Player One (c-3/20, n-12/17) — Near Lock —
  • Black Panther (c-3/20, n-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Solo: A Star Wars Story (c-3/20, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • Christopher Robin (c-12/3) — Borderline —
  • Welcome to Marwen (c-12/3) — Borderline —
  • Mary Poppins Returns (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (c-3/20) — Borderline —
  • Ant-Man and the Wasp (c-3/20) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Visual Effects branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Roma – Mexico (c-3/20, n-10/15, o-10/15) — Lock —
  •  
  • Cold War – Poland (c-10/15, n-12/7) — Good —
  • Shoplifters – Japan (c-10/15, n-12/7) — Good —
  • Capernaum – Lebanon (c-10/15, n-12/7) — Borderline —
  • Never Look Away – Germany (c-10/15, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • The Guilty – Denmark (c-10/15) — Borderline —
  • Burning – South Korea (c-10/15) — Borderline —
  • Birds of Passage – Colombia (c-10/15) — Borderline —
  • Ayka – Kazakhstan (c-10/15) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Foreign Language Film branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Documentary Feature

  • Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (c-11/8, n-11/8, o-12/17) — Lock —
  •  
  • Free Solo (c-11/8, n-12/17) — Lock —
  • Three Identical Strangers (c-11/8, n-11/8) — Lock —
  • Minding the Gap (c-11/8, n-11/8) — Borderline —
  • Shirkers (c-11/8, n-1/20) — Borderline —
  •  
  • RBG (c-11/8) — Borderline —
  • Hale County This Morning, This Evening (c-11/8) — Borderline —
  • On Her Shoulders (c-11/8) — Borderline —
  • Of Fathers and Sons (c-11/8) — Borderline —
  • Dark Money (c-11/8) — Borderline —
  • The Silence of Others (c-11/8) — Borderline —
  • Crime + Punishment (c-11/8) — Borderline —
  • Charm City (c-11/8) — Borderline —
  • Communion (c-11/8) — Borderline —
  • The Distant Barking of Dogs (c-11/8) — Borderline —

All of the Documentary Features listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • Period. End of Sentence. (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-12/17)
  •  
  • 63 Boycott (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  • Lifeboat (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  • Women of the Gulag (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  • Zion (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  •  
  •  
  • Black Sheep (c-12/17)
  • Los Comandos (c-12/17)
  • End Game (c-12/17)
  • My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes (c-12/17)
  • A Night at the Garden (c-12/17)

All of the Short Subjects listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Animated Short Film

  • Lost & Found (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-12/17)
  •  
  • Animal Behavior (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  • Bao (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  • One Small Step (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  • Weekends (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  •  
  • Age of Sail (c-12/17)
  • Bilby (c-12/17)
  • Bird Karma (c-12/17)
  • Late Afternoon (c-12/17)
  • Pepe le Morse (c-12/17)

All of the Animated Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Fauve (c-12/17, n-12/17, o-12/17)
  •  
  • Caroline (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  • Marguerite (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  • Skin (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  • Wale (c-12/17, n-12/17)
  •  
  • Chuchotage (c-12/17)
  • Detainment (c-12/17)
  • Icare (c-12/17)
  • May Day (c-12/17)
  • Mother (c-12/17)

All of the Live Action Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final three to five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

6 Comments

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  1. I’m surprised you considered Ready Player One for best production design. But would that apply to the real world setting? Or does this apply for the OASIS too? I mean Avatar won before.

    And considering that victory, this might open the gates to a few stop motion or motion capture films to take their shot right?

    1. Animated films have always been dark-horse contenders for this category. There’s a bias against them, but films like Kubo and the Two Strings and Ready Player One (not fully animated, but may as well fall under that category) represent the kinds of films the Academy could recognize without the real-world bias.

      Further, its place on this list is also a result of the Art Directors Guild nominating the film for Best Fantasy Art Direction, which is more than can be said for Kubo, which definitely deserved that kind of recognition.

  2. I think Peterloo and Where’d You Go Bernadette got pushed to 2019.

    1. I must have missed a couple of references then. I had pulled Bernadette for sure and most of Peterloo. I don’t know that Peterloo got bumped, but it’s certainly not a contender anymore.

  3. Also,

    “Boy Erased” would be Adapted.

  4. I believe Spielberg has postponed production on “The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara” and will next start filming “Indiana Jones 5” and then “West Side Story.”

    http://deadline.com/2018/01/steven-spielberg-indiana-jones-west-side-story-directing-vehicles-1202262857/

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