72nd Academy Awards (1999): Oscar Morning

Tuesday is THE Big Morning of the year and the second most important day of the year for any Oscar enthusiast. The nominations for the 72nd Annual Academy awards will be announced. We’ll find out only a few categories at the early hour, but it should tell us how things will be going in other categories. Here’s a breakdown of the categories that will be announced at the live ceremony by president Robert Rehme and Dustin Hoffman.

As a note to the area below, I have listed the films in numerical order of how sure they are to be nominated.

Supporting Actor

  1. Tom Cruise – Magnolia
  2. Haley Joel Osment – The Sixth Sense
  3. Christopher Plummer – The Insider
  4. Michael Caine – The Cider House Rules
  5. Michael Clarke Duncan – The Green Mile

This is the first category announced. It will tell us a little about the future of the nominees. If Law or Malkovich is nominated, their films will likely be nominated for picture. Osment and Cruise are the only sure things. Plummer, Caine and Duncan could all easily be replaced.

Immediate Runners-Up:

  1. Jude Law – The Talented Mr. Ripley
  2. John Malkovich – Being John Malkovich
  3. Chris Cooper – American Beauty
  4. Wes Bentley – American Beauty
  5. Harry J. Lennix – Titus

Supporting Actress

  1. Chloe Sevigny – Boys Don’t Cry
  2. Angelina Jolie – Girl, Interrupted
  3. Catherine Keener – Being John Malkovich
  4. Julianne Moore – Magnolia
  5. Cameron Diaz – Being John Malkovich

Another category that could mean a lot. If Being John Malkovich gets the two nomination as expected, then it’s going to be considered an actor’s favorite, which means a picture nomination is nearly certain. Sevigny is the ONLY nominee that is sure to get on the list. Diaz is the only one of the five that seems to be the weakest choice and most easily to get knocked off the list. If Blanchett or Paltrow get a nomination, this is the one category that will guarantee the film a Best Picture nomination.

Immediate Runners-Up:

  1. Toni Collette – The Sixth Sense
  2. Samantha Morton – Sweet and Lowdown
  3. Cate Blanchett – The Talented Mr. Ripley
  4. Patricia Neal – Cookie’s Fortune
  5. Gwyneth Paltrow – The Talented Mr. Ripley

Actor

  1. Kevin Spacey – American Beauty
  2. Denzel Washington – The Hurricane
  3. Russell Crowe – The Insider
  4. Jim Carrey – Man on the Moon
  5. Richard Farnsworth – The Straight Story

Not much is expected to surprise here. Spacey, Washington and Crowe are considered to be locks, but sometimes that isn’t even assured. Carrey and Farnsworth are both weak choices and could easily be replaced. If Damon gets the nod, then Mr. Ripley is again likely to get a nomination. If Broadbent is a nominee, Topsy-Turvy’s chances at a Best Picture nominee is nearly guaranteed.

Immediate Runners-Up:

  1. Matt Damon – The Talented Mr. Ripley
  2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – Flawless
  3. Jim Broadbent – Topsy-Turvy
  4. Sean Penn – Sweet and Lowdown
  5. Anthony Hopkins – Titus

Actress

  1. Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry
  2. Annette Bening – American Beauty
  3. Julianne Moore – The End of the Affair
  4. Janet McTeer – Tumbleweeds
  5. Sigourney Weaver – A Map of the World

Swank and Bening are the only locks in this category. Moore is the next best bet followed closely by Janet McTeer. Weaver is extremely week and is the most likely to get knocked off the list, though Moore and McTeer are somewhat weak as well. Streep is likely to knock Weaver out and will hold a record at that time. Witherspoon and Roth would be somewhat surprising as nominees, but in a year that’s so surprising so far, this will be quite an unpredictable morning.

Immediate Runners-Up:

  1. Meryl Streep – Music of the Heart
  2. Reese Witherspoon – Election
  3. Cecilia Roth – All About My Mother
  4. Kate Winslet – Holy Smoke
  5. Winona Ryder – Girl, Interrupted

Director

  1. Sam Mendes – American Beauty
  2. Michael Mann – The Insider
  3. M. Night Shyamalan – The Sixth Sense
  4. Norman Jewison – The Hurricane
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Magnolia

Mendes is the only lock. Mann and Shyamalan are good bets. Jewison is a directors favorite while Anderson has a chance being a picture nominee as well. This could be where the Academy honors Almodovar, but other potential picture nominees Being John Malkovich and The Talented Mr. Ripley. Kubrick could be a surprise nominee not long after his death this could be his tribute if not in Adapted Screenplay.

Immediate Runners-Up:

  1. Pedro Almodovar – All About My Mother
  2. Spike Jonze – Being John Malkovich
  3. Anthony Minghella – The Talented Mr. Ripley
  4. Stanley Kubrick – Eyes Wide Shut
  5. David Lynch – The Straight Story

Original Screenplay

  1. American Beauty
  2. Being John Malkovich
  3. The Sixth Sense
  4. Magnolia
  5. All About My Mother

This category has two locks and two pretty good bets and then a wide open fifth slot. All About My Mother seems a good token nomination for Pedro Almodovar, a director that might even break into the final five there. Three Kings was the WGA nominee and could easily take the slot.

Immediate Runners-Up:

  1. Three Kings
  2. The Straight Story
  3. Sweet and Lowdown
  4. Boys Don’t Cry
  5. Topsy-Turvy

Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Cider House Rules
  2. The Insider
  3. The Talented Mr. Ripley
  4. Election
  5. Eyes Wide Shut

No locks here. Cider House and Insider have the best chances. Mr. Ripley and Election are better chances and Eyes Wide Shut looks to be Kubrick’s only shot at a nomination. Even though Full Metal Jacket was shut out, Kubrick managed a Screenplay nomination, but there was no advertising bolstering Eyes Wide Shut, so it could easily be replaced by Toy Story 2 (which would be the only film series ever to have been nominated for both Original and Adapted Screenplay). The Green Mile, The End of the Affair and October Sky could also be nominees. This is probably the most wide-open category this year.

Immediate Runners-Up:

  1. Toy Story 2
  2. The Green Mile
  3. The End of the Affair
  4. October Sky
  5. Angela’s Ashes

Foreign Film

  1. All About My Mother
  2. East-West
  3. Three Seasons
  4. The Cup
  5. Rosetta

All About My Mother is the only guarantee. East-West could further France’s most-nominated tally. The Cup has a pretty good studio backer. The rest is academic. This is always one of the toughest to predict outside of a few nominees (documentary can no longer hold that title since they announced finalists this year).

Immediate Runners-Up:

  1. Aimee & Jaguar
  2. The Colours of Paradise
  3. Earth
  4. Mifune
  5. Not of This World

Picture

  1. American Beauty
  2. The Insider
  3. The Sixth Sense
  4. Being John Malkovich
  5. Magnolia

This is the final category to be announced. American Beauty is the only sure thing. The rest are just likely or unlikely. Being John Malkovich and Magnolia are the only two films that I can see being replaced quite easily when the announcements are made. By this time, we’ll know by how the voters have voted if Talented Mr. Ripley is in. If it’s nominated for director, screenplay, supporting actor, actor and even supporting actress, then it will make this list. If it fails to get all of these, no chance for Picture nomination is had.

Immediate Runners-Up:

  1. The Talented Mr. Ripley
  2. Boys Don’t Cry
  3. The Cider House Rules
  4. The Green Mile
  5. Topsy-Turvy