As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

We are finally reaching the end of the critics phase of our precursor season. They are slowing to a trickle and will almost vanish in the next couple of weeks. We’re also beginning the guild portion of the season with the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild and the Screen Actors Guild both announcing this past week.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 8 (Tue.-Mon.)

Tuesday, Jan. 18 – Online Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 18 – NAACP Image Awards (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 18 – USC Scripter (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 19 – Latino Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Friday, Jan. 21 – Cinema Editors (Nominations) (Official)
Monday, Jan. 24 – Online Critics (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Jan. 24 – Art Directors (Nominations) (Official)
Monday, Jan. 24 – Sound Editors (Nominations) (Official)

Big Winners

The Power of the Dog continues to be the top choice among critics. While the film has hit a few barriers in the last week (no SAG cast nomination), it remains on course to be one of the year’s most prominent contenders.
King Richard pulled in two important nominations this week: Best Cast and Best Actor at the Screen Actors Guild. The former suggests its chances at a Best Picture nomination are solid and the latter confirms that Will Smith is still a certain Best Actor nominee.
House of Gucci has been doing modestly with critics, mostly focusing on Lady Gaga’s performance, but SAG changed that calculus not just by nominating Lady Gaga in Best Actress and Jared Leto in Best Supporting Actor, but that extremely important Cast nomination suggests it has some love, though the starry nature of that cast might have boosted its chances.
Don’t Look Up also got a Cast nomination from SAG, but no other nominations. This shows there’s some admiration for the film, mostly for the cast. While that’s a positive sign for the film, its lack of other nominations is concerning.
Being the Ricardos didn’t get a SAG cast nomination, but it did better in terms of maneuvers outside of Nicole Kidman. Kidman has long been thought to be assured a Best Actress slot. Javier Bardem, on the other hand, has gotten almost no citations. Then comes SAG and he’s suddenly in the conversation over other more prominent contenders thus far.
Licorice Pizza holds up quite well in spite of its lack of SAG cast nomination. It remains a top player with critics groups in numerous categories, though its Oscar chances are starting to diminish in certain categories like Best Actress. That said, the Supporting Actor nomination for Bradley Cooper is a positive sign for the film.

Big Losers

Kristen Stewart took the single biggest hit from SAG this week. She and her film were shut out. With so many Best Actress citations so far, Stewart was thought to be a sure nominee, but SAG’s failure to recognize her suggests perhaps we’ve been too assured of her consideration. Jennifer Hudson got in over her, though I doubt the Oscars will yield the same result since Hudson is unlikely to rank at BAFTA, which has been doing much better at its Oscar prognostication than SAG seems to have recently.
Aunjanue Ellis had the worst news of the King Richard contenders. She’s gotten consistent recognition as a Best Supporting Actress contender, but SAG ignored her in favor of Cate Blanchett. That could be a sign of her weakness as a contender, especially since Smith was soaking up most of the oxygen this season. Still, she’s not doomed yet.
J.K. Simmons was the only member of the Being the Ricardos cast that seemed assured of a nomination outside of Kidman herself. Yet, SAG didn’t cite him. That could spell trouble for the actor’s Oscar chances, especially since the film isn’t likely to pull people into consideration like some other films might.
Ciaran Hinds had a very solid run through the precursors, but came up short with SAG. The only member of the Belfast cast to make the final list was Caitriona Balfe, the lone figure who had faded most during the precursors. Her chances have rekindled while Hinds’ have diminished if ever so slightly. Of course, Belfast is the kind of film that could well pull people into the mix who were a bit fringy since it’s a crowd-pleaser and the Academy loves to over-recognize those.
Drive My Car has been the critics’ darling all season, winning countless prizes even when no one thought it was a contender. That is the kind of profile Parasite had recently and gave some support to the idea that it was a stealth contender. SAG ignored the film entirely. Parasite got the boost of that recognition and pushed it to an Oscar win. Yet, Drive My Car won’t have that luxury, diminishing its chances of many nominations at all outside of Best Foreign Language Film.
Mass also took a hit with the SAG selections. It was the kind of small-knit ensemble that would have benefited greatly from the SAG recognition. Not only did it not get a Cast nomination, neither of the four principle actors were cited, not even Ann Dowd, who many thought was the most in contention this year. Without that nomination, Mass may well come up empty in the Oscar nominations.