As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

There are only two general lulls in precursor season and they happen the next two weeks. While there will be some activity, there won’t be too much of it.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 4 (Tue.-Mon.)

Tuesday, Dec. 21 – Florida Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 21 – Online Female Critics (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Dec. 21 – Online Female Critics (Awards) (Official)
Tuesday, Dec. 21 – Annie Awards (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Dec. 21 – Shortlists Announced (Official)
Friday, Dec. 24 – Golden Eagle Awards (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 27 – Chicago Independent Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 27 – Columbus Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)

Big Winners

Drive My Car seems to be chugging along like few foreign language films have. Unlike Roma and Parasite, Drive My Car seemingly came out of nowhere and its dominance has been rather bizarre. We’ll see how things shape up, but I doubt it will make the final 10. Though, the Producers Guild of America or Screen Actors Guild or Directors Guild of America could change that calculus.
The Power of the Dog remains the only one of the big English-language Oscar contenders to retain most of its luster as the season ahs progressed, seemingly picking up momentum while other former competitors are fading.
West Side Story may not have the level of support that The Power of the Dog has, but it’s been consistently recognized by critics groups, which bodes well for its Oscar nominations prospects.
Kristen Stewart has gone from box office star to indie star in the manner of a few years. Her big budget career seems to be over, but with prominent directors like Olivier Assayas and Pablo Larrain giving her great opportunities, she’s managed to turn into something of a well regarded actress, much to everyone’s surprise. Her continued appearance this season has been surprising to say the least and is not something we could have predicted a decade ago.

Big Losers

Belfast was the shining star of the Toronto International Film Festival, winning it’s prized audience award for best film. It then started off precursor season scooping up consistent recognition. It has since started to fade with accolades largely drying up, which could spell doom for its Best Picture-winning prospects.
Don’t Look Up was thought to be the latest Adam McKay satire to tickle the funny bone and earn Oscar’s attention. Yet, the reviews were relatively bleak and while a few critics groups have cited the film for nomination, it’s been making almost no inroads as a winner, even for its starry cast.
Nightmare Alley was to be Guillermo del Toro’s Oscar-caliber follow up to The Shape of Water. Once again, critics sank the film in terms of reviews and then ignored it in most categories outside of the creative ones. While it remains a player in some respects, it’s flame-out seems to be expanding, not contracting.
King Richard was, like Belfast, an early crowd-pleasing hit. It earned solid reviews and Will Smith was tapped as a major Oscar prospect. However, the season hasn’t been as kind to the film as expected with Smith earning the death knell of an award from the National Board of Review and then virtually disappearing from awards consideration, falling mostly to the likes of Benedict Cumberbatch. Still Aunjanue Ellis continues to do well with the precursors comparatively, which could keep the film in the conversation long enough to nab some Oscar nominations, just not as many as we might have expected two weeks ago.
Being the Ricardos is another film that wasn’t able to ride its wave of buzz to more than a handful of citations. Sure, Nicole Kidman has scored several nominations and Aaron Sorkin’s script has picked up a few as well, but the film overall seems to be landing with a thud with critics, which might not bode well for its longevity.
The Tragedy of Macbeth is the last of the major awards contenders to be screened and while we’ve seen Denzel Washington and the film’s cinematography pick up nominations here and there, the film has largely failed to move the needle. Maybe the full slate of critics’ reviews will tell us more about why that is.