As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

Online a few weeks to go. This past week, we had only a couple of precursors, but one of them was a major one.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 14 (TUE-MON)

Saturday, Mar. 5 – Art Directors (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Mar. 5 – Cinema Editors (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Mar. 6 – Online Film & TV Association (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Mar. 6 – Spirit Awards (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Mar. 7 – Vancouver Critics (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Mar. 7 – Vancouver Critics – Canadian Awards (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Mar. 7 – Nominees Lunch (Official)

Big Winners

CODA triumphed at the Screen Actors Guild and if there’s a feel-good story of the year, it’s this film winning. That could bolster its chances at the Oscars, but it doesn’t seem like the kind of film that triumphs over more dramatic works to win Best Picture. That said, if it’s going to make a run for it, this was a crucial award to win. This also bolsters Troy Kotsur’s Best Supporting Actor campaign. It’s been over three decades since a deaf actor won at the Oscars and his speech as well as the performance of his film could bolster his chances going into the Oscars, especially since his chief competition is incredibly young and might be seen as too young to win the award.
Will Smith needed a boost going into the Oscars. His flagging support from the precursors has sidelined him much of the season. He’s picking up momentum at just the right time and while Benedict Cumberbatch is far more celebrated for his performance, will Oscar voters want to reward him for such a despicable role? It’s still possible. If there’s one thing that shoots Smith in the foot, it’s himself. That speech was self-aggrandizing in a lot of ways and that’s not the kind of speech voters respond to and demand to hear again.
Jessica Chastain needed this victory going into the Oscars. This is the kind of performance that often gets sidelined by more voluminous work, but winning here gives her a bit of momentum, especially when the entire female side of the race has been up in the air all season and her competition is trying to define itself while she’s winning a handful of important awards.
Ariana DeBose is the only actor this season who has managed to keep most of her momentum going. While West Side Story hasn’t exactly ignited fervent support this awards season, DeBose’s performance has and its such an effervescent performance, as was her speech, that I could see this being the beginning of the end of her journey towards becoming one of the rare actors honored for playing the same role as a prior Oscar winner.

Big Losers

The Power of the Dog took two hits tonight. Benedict Cumberbatch needed the visibility of this win to catapult him towards an Oscar win. That he couldn’t win over the more popular Smith isn’t a good sign, but that his co-star Kodi Smit-McPhee also lost after a season-long hot streak suggests the film has cooled a bit for voters. That said, SAG is far more populist in their winner selections and the Academy tends to be more conservative, so they aren’t quite out of it yet. We’ll have to see if the Critics Choice awards give them any momentum.
Ciaran Hinds is another actor who could have used a win to bolster his chances of winning the Oscar. He is the kind of sentimental favorite who could have pulled off a win, but losing to a more sentimental favorite may have damaged his chances beyond repair.
Don’t Look Up had seemed like it was building momentum towards Oscar, but the huge cast of notable names couldn’t manage to overcome the tiny cast of CODA for a win of the top award, which makes its Oscar chances seem a bit more bleak than its prior precursor momentum might have suggested.