As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

Nothing happened last week…unless you count the actual nominations, which is what we’re here for. Let’s see how various films did across the Oscar nominations.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 12 (Tue.-Mon.)

Thursday, Feb. 17 – Film Music Critics (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 19 – Make-Up Artists Guild (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

The Power of the Dog held on through most of precursor season and not only managed to pull out exactly the nominations everyone expected, it also managed three surprise nominations for Jesse Plemons in Supporting Actor, Production Design, and Sound for a total of 12, which is easily the most nominations of the year and puts the film in prime position to win numerous awards at the Oscars.
King Richard had seemingly been fading as precursor season wore on, but Oscar voters went well beyond what many were expecting, giving the film, stars Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis, the screenplay, and even the editor nominations. Along with a Best Picture nomination, that’s pretty impressive for a film that looked like it was going to eke out the bare minimum.
Flee managed to overcome the documentary/adult-oriented bias of Best Animated Feature and score nominations in that category as well as International Feature and Documentary Feature becoming the first film, documentary or otherwise, to score nominations in three production categories. It’s also now tied with Woodstock for most total nominations for a documentary.
Drive My Car could have performed even better, but considering its failure to show up at most of the guilds, no one was even certain it would score outside of Best International Feature. Four total nominations, including Best Picture and Best Directing, say it was something of a success.
Nightmare Alley only managed four nominations, which isn’t great considering how much of a technical marvel it was, but it pulled off its expected categories plus the unexpected Best Picture nomination. While none of the cast was nominated nor was it cited in the rest of the above-the-line categories, that Best Picture nomination came as a surprise and proved the film had a good day even if it wasn’t as good as it could have been.

Big Mediocres

Dune did manage to score nominations in all of the expected categories, pulling off citations in all but one craft category (Original Song) and then added in an Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture nomination. What makes its performance mediocre is that director Denis Villeneuve didn’t get nominated. That’s a bit of a surprise considering the film otherwise picked up 10 nominations.
Belfast had a lot of potential in below-the-line categories, but the film came up empty with all of them except Sound. Sure, the film got into six top tier categories, including a surprise citation for Judi Dench, but it missed out on several categories and only managed a total of seven nominations.
West Side Story faced a similar fate, but its failures were mostly above-the-line than below. Outside of Ariana DeBose, none of the cast was nominated. On top of that, it failed to show up in Adapted Screenplay. Topping out at seven, its haul was notably disappointing all things considered.
Don’t Look Up showed up at BAFTA and that signaled its appearance in Best Picture at the Oscars, but it also seemed on the cusp of several nominations, including possibly an acting citation for Leonardo DiCaprio. In the end, it only managed four, an impressive four, but still a mediocre run.
CODA got in many places that it was expected, but when you look at its measly three nominations, that Best Picture citation seems odd. It is combined with a Best Supporting Actor nomination and an Adapted Screenplay citation, but that was all.

Big Losers

tick, tick…BOOM! was building up the kind of precursor run that presages a Best Picture nomination. Yet, in the end, the film only managed two nominations. One for Andrew Garfield in Best Actor and one in Best Film Editing. Not the kind of result expected from everything that had come before.
Being the Ricardos did get three acting nominations, but that was it. No Original Screenplay nomination. No Best Picture nomination. Signs had pointed towards the film doing better, but it didn’t.
Licorice Pizza picked up three nominations, an impressive three nominations (Picture, Directing, and Original Screenplay), but based on its run through the precursors, one would have expected the likes of Alana Haim in Best Actress, perhaps even nominations in costume design or film editing. Yet, it was held back to a rather dismal tally of three.
The Tragedy of Macbeth looked on paper like the kind of film Oscar voters fall all over. It had a decent, but mediocre run through the precursors. Yet, it was expected to do quite a bit better than the three nominations it received. Denzel Washington made it into Best Actor as expected and the film earned a Cinematography nomination as predicted. It did manage a surprise Production Design nod, but that was it. No Best Picture. No Adapted Screenplay. Nothing else. Not a great result for a film with such pedigree.
The Harder They Fall got shut out. While the film wasn’t likely to make a lot of inroads into the Oscar nominations, the two music categories were thought solid bets with “Guns Go Bang” considered a major contender. In the end, the film just couldn’t ignite the level of passion it needed to break through to a nomination.