Tomorrow or Saturday, I’ll be posting my final thoughts on all of the races, but because several pools close today, I thought I’d share my final predictions.

At the link below, you will find all of my projections, including statements on each contender. Here’s a quick guide:

• “Strong Lead” is any film or performance that seems to be a juggernaut and whose win seems to be written in stone. I always caution that in spite of being the leader, shocks happen and strong leads can go down in defeat.
• “Weak Lead” is any film that is largely seen as the frontrunner, but various factors contribute to the film or performance being weak enough that another victor isn’t unexpected, but less likely than a “Close Race” would be.
• “Close Race” is anything that is too close to call and any result is possible. While I have gone out on a limb to pick films or performances I ultimately think will triumph, I’m not at all confident in my prediction.
• “Potential Spoiler” is a film or performance that could top the “Weak” or “Strong” leader or might come from behind in a “Close Race” to score an upset. These are entities that I’m not certain will win, but could.
• “Unlikely” is a contender that isn’t much of one. They still have a longshot possibility, but prevailing winds suggest they aren’t likely to win.
• “No Shot” are films or performances that have absolutely nothing supporting a win and a victory for these would be one of the all-time biggest surprises.

In addition to the above designations, each nominee is ordered from most likely to least likely to win. These are not in any kind of alphabetical order. Although an item may be listed 4th, if they are part of a “Close Race,” I likely consider them running in a tight group for second place and being listed fourth is just where it sits in the order.

Oscar Guy’s Final Predictions

Please note that voting is closed and changing anything from here on out seems trivial, but if hunches or gut feelings emerge before Sunday, I may post alterations to these.