Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

March 5, 2021

Boogie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The pandemic box office is still in full swing and as last week’s weak debut for Judas and the Black Messiah showed, films with minority characters, especially in hard-hit (pandemic) populations, aren’t willing to risk their safety for a movie.”
Box Office Results: $4.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It was always a long shot for a box office bonanza, but even then it shouldn’t have released wide as this anemic take attests.

Chaos Walking

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It could be a contender for Best Visual Effects next year, but early-year releases often fade by the time the nominations come out and don’t get anything.”
Oscar Results: Now none.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. A weak box office will likely hurt this sci-fi feature. I suspect it may ultimately be pushed off, but for now it appears to be on the release schedule, to its own detriment.”
Box Office Results: $13.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Few fans of the book seemed to turn out and the bad reviews likely kept the curious away, not to mention that utter lack of faith in the safety of going to movie theaters.

Raya and the Last Dragon

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Disney’s films, even some of the mediocre ones, are still major Oscar contenders.”
Oscar Results: Still Excellent. Although the film wasn’t a huge box office success, it still has to be considered a contender for a Best Animated Feature nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. If the film releases to theaters, which is not at all likely since Disney already pushed their hotly anticipated Pixar film Soul to their streaming studio, I don’t imagine they’ll still launch this. Then again, the rules for consideration for next year’s Oscars aren’t likely to be as favorable to that decision, so it could release anyway. The Croods: A New Age is a great example of how it could perform. Not as high as Disney standards, but not too embarrassing either.”
Box Office Results: $54.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Having also released on Disney Plus, it’s impossible to know just how high this film could have climbed with a full release. It still managed to outgross all but 9 films released in 2020, most of which were pre-pandemic releases.

March 26, 2021

Godzilla vs. Kong

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The last film didn’t earn any Oscar nominations. I suspect the same will happen here, but one never knows.”
Oscar Results: Uncertain. The film performed well and can still earn a nomination, but it will have a lot of competition.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The major monster flick could do well at a pandemic box office, especially since Godzilla: King of the Monsters did so well on its own. How low the tally will be as a result of pandemic is unknown.”
Box Office Results: $100.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] The release date shifted to the beginning of April, but it ended up an unqualified success, the first film to earn $100 million at the box office in over a year (Sonic was the last in February of 2020) and proved to mark the beginning of a slow return to normal for theaters, even though it’s far from normal still.