Every year, in March, we start predicting the subsequent year’s Oscars. However, a pandemic got in the way and pushed the Oscars into April and forced us to reposition our first predictions (as Hollywood repositioned all of its Oscar contenders). As such, three months late, we’re finally giving you our initial predictions and, based on our first picks, there’s hardly any consensus.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I must admit, I’m still trying to figure out where everything will go this year. Some of last year’s major contenders have butted up against this year’s as they moved into competition. In the Heights might have been a slam dunk last year, but it’s going to struggle this year. The same is true of Dune, I’m afraid. Further, some of the big question marks (David O. Russell, Paul Thomas Anderson, and Joel Coen) aren’t even guaranteed releases this year. We’ll see how things go as the year progresses, but at this point, it’s anyone’s guess.
Peter J. Patrick: With no film festivals to guide us (Cannes hasn’t even happened yet), this may be June, but it feels more like January in any other year when we’re struggling to make sense of the year’s yet-to-be-seen product.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: After the longest Oscar season, we are now preparing for the shortest one. And even though we are starting later than usual with our predictions, I do not feel like I have that strong an idea of what may be nominated. Film releases have been pushed back, but I do not know if that is because they are quality or junk. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but I really have no idea how it will go at this point.

Best Picture

• BelfastNew PP O
• Blue BayouNew TL O
• Canterbury GlassNew WL ONew PP ONew TL O
• CODANew WL ONew TB O New TL O
• Don’t Look UpNew TB O New TL O
• Don’t Worry DarlingNew TL O
• DuneNew WL ONew PP ONew TB O
• The French DispatchNew WL ONew PP ONew TL O
• A HeroNew PP O
• House of GucciNew WL ONew PP ONew TB O New TL O
• In the HeightsNew WL O
• The Last DuelNew WL O
• MassNew PP ONew TB O New TL O
• Nightmare AlleyNew WL ONew PP ONew TB O New TL O
• The Power of the DogNew PP ONew TB O New TL O
• Soggy BottomNew TB O
• The Tragedy of MacbethNew WL ONew TB O
• West Side StoryNew WL ONew PP ONew TB O

Best Director

• Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay New TL O
• Don’t Worry Darling – Olivia Wilde New TL O
• Dune – Denis Villeneuve New TB O
• The French Dispatch – Wes Anderson New WL O New TL O
• A Hero – Asghar Farhadi New PP O
• House of Gucci – Ridley Scott New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Nightmare Alley – Guillermo del Toro New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion New WL O New PP O New TB O
• Soggy Bottom – Paul Thomas Anderson New TB O
• The Tragedy of MacBeth – Joel Coen New WL O
• West Side Story – Steven Spielberg New WL O New PP O

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog New PP O
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up New TB O
• Peter Dinklage – Cyrano New TL O
• Adam Driver – House of Gucci New TB O
• Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan New WL O New TB O
• Will Smith – King Richard New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley New PP O
• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye New WL O
• Ana de Armas – Blonde New TB O New TL O
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog New PP O
• Salma Hayek – House of Gucci New WL O
• Jennifer Hudson – Respect New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Emilia Jones – CODA New WL O
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos New TL O
• Lady Gaga – House of Gucci New PP O New TL O
• Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up New TB O
• Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth New TB O
• Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling New TL O
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer New WL O New TB O
• Tessa Thompson – Passing New TB O
• Rachel Zegler – West Side Story New PP O

Best Supporting Actor

• David Alvarez – West Side Story New PP O
• Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom New TB O New TL O
• Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley New TB O New TL O
• Robert De Niro – Canterbury Glass New WL O
• Adam Driver – The Last Duel New WL O
• Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth New TB O
• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast New PP O
• Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Jared Leto – House of Gucci New TL O
• Al Pacino – House of Gucci New WL O New PP O
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog New PP O New TB O
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos New WL O
• John David Washington – Canterbury Glass New WL O New TL O

Best Supporting Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley New WL O
• Toni Collette – Nightmare Alley New PP O New TB O
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Judi Dench – Belfast New WL O
• Ann Dowd – Mass New PP O New TB O
• Kristen Dunst – The Power of the Dog New TL O
• Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Cherry Jones – The Eyes of Tammy Faye New WL O
• Olga Merediz – In the Heights New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Ruth Negga – Passing New TB O
• Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass New TL O

Best Original Screenplay

• Being the Ricardos New WL O New TL O
• Belfast New PP O
• Canterbury Glass New WL O New PP O
• Don’t Look Up New TB O New TL O
• Don’t Worry Darling New TL O
• The French Dispatch New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• A Hero New WL O
• The Last Duel New TB O
• Mass New PP O New TB O
• The Power of the Dog New PP O
• Soggy Bottom New WL O New TB O New TL O

Best Adapted Screenplay

• CODA New WL O New TB O
• Dune New PP O
• House of Gucci New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Humans New TL O
• A Journal for Jordan New TL O
• The Last Duel New WL O
• Nightmare Alley New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Power of the Dog New TB O New TL O
• The Tragedy of Macbeth New WL O New PP O New TB O
• West Side Story New PP O