2021 Oscar Nominations Predictions: Final

And after two and a half months of near-constant precursors, the time is almost upon us. Tomorrow morning, the 94th Oscar nominations will be revealed to all. As is our tradition, we post today our final nomination predictions. Each of our contributors have provided what commentary they wish and I’ve posted my annual Oscar Morning article. There’s no point in dwelling on ceremony, let’s get into this.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Predictions
(P) = Post-Festival Predictions
(J) = January Predictions
(F) = Final Predictions

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I wrote all of my thoughts down in my Oscar Morning article. As a result, I’m going to leave this one to my contributors where commentary is provided. If you want to read my take on it, please visit this link.
Peter J. Patrick: The critics have spoken, the guilds have spoken, and finally, BAFTA has spoken. BAFTA, which did their own thing for decades before becoming a reliable Oscar precursor over the last few years, seems to be going their own way again, allowing committees to narrow longlists into the final nominees. Since the committees are not representative of the thinking of the whole organization, we are not any clearer now than we were before they announced. In any event, the BAFTA nominations are totally irrelevant as far as having an impact on Oscar this year’s Oscar nominations since voting closed before they were announced.
Tripp Burton: I don’t know if I have ever been this up in the air about the Oscar nominations. Between the decreased attention on the Golden Globes, the new voting processes for BAFTA, the increased voting body of SAG, and the spread-out nature of the precursors, it seems like anything is possible. There are films that I think could get double-digit nominations or could almost completely miss, there are people who I think are winners who might not be nominated, and there are some long-shots that I think are likely. I love an unpredictable season!
Thomas LaTourette: The Oscar nominations are almost upon us. The shortest Oscar season in my lifetime and perhaps ever, is drawing to a close. While many nominations feel pretty safe, I think there will be a lot of surprises when the nominations are announced. The Academy always makes some unexpected choices, and this year seems primed for more than usual. Best actress and supporting actor will definitely make for some interesting choices. Kristen Stewart will be anxiously waiting to see if she gets a nom, though I am thinking she will just miss out. The wonderful debuts of Rachel Zegler and Alana Haim are also likely to not be listed, and personally I would rate both above Stewart. This may prove the most difficult category to predict. At one point it seemed that both The Power of the Dog and Belfast could produce double supporting actors which seems unlikely now, though Kodi Smit-McPhee will be up even if none of the others are. The late premiere of Cyrano may be knocking Peter Dinklage and Cyrano from the mix. Drive My Car might show up for director or screenplay in addition to its expected spot for international feature, though it was not my favorite film. Will Disney be able to hold onto three of the animated slots, or will the love get spread around to other production companies? Exciting new versions of West Side Story and Nightmare Alley impressed me, but they may not make that much of an impression with the voters. Three big name musicals came out this year though tick, tick…Boom! and especially In the Heights look likely to have little impact, though Andrew Garfield will get nominated for the former. Flee could be nominated in three categories or might not make it in any. Documentaries are always hard to predict as that branch of the Academy has often not nominated what seems to be the frontrunner. International film also has a habit of throwing in a couple unexpected choices. Marvel Studios has four of the shortlisted films up for visual effects, and it will prove interesting to see how many of them are nominated, though Dune should own that category when it comes down to it. As always at this point, the short films are guesses. So, I will be looking forward to seeing what is nominated and will be ready for a bit of head scratching.

Best Picture

Being the Ricardos New WL F New TL F
Belfast WL P PP O TB P TL P
CODA WL O New PP F TB J TL O
Don’t Look Up New WL F PP J TB O Returned TL F
Dune WL O PP O TB O TL P
King Richard WL J PP P Returned TB F TL P
Licorice Pizza WL J PP P TB O TL P
Nightmare Alley PP O
The Power of the Dog WL P PP O TB O TL O
Spider-Man: No Way Home PP J
tick, tick…BOOM! New WL F TB J TL J
The Tragedy of Macbeth Returned TB F
West Side Story WL O PP O TB O TL P

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m predicting Spider-Man: No Way Home even though the box-office champion doesn’t seem to have much of a chance because I would hate to override it with something else and see it nominated anyway. Nightmare Alley, which I seem to be fonder of than anyone else falls into the same thought pattern. Everything else is likely to be nominated.
Tripp Burton: The last two times that we had a guaranteed 10 nominees we got some mainstream picks (two Pixar films) and some smaller fare (Winter’s Bone, A Serious Man) sneak in. I think another Coen film could surprise here. The other nine are pretty set in stone, I think.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Animated Feature

Belle PP O TB O
Encanto WL O PP O TB O TL O
Flee PP O TB O TL O
Luca WL O PP O TB O TL O
The Mitchells vs the Machines WL J PP O TB O TL O
Raya and the Last Dragon WL O TL O
Sing 2 New WL F

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: Pretty much what I expect to be the final five.
Tripp Burton: Encanto, Flee, Luca, and The Mitchells vs. the Machines are all seemingly locked in place. Logic says that Raya and the Last Dragon is probably in fifth, but this category likes to surprise us with some foreign affair, and people who have seen it really love Belle.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Director

Belfast – Kenneth Branagh WL P PP P TL P
Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi New TB F
Dune – Denis Villeneuve WL P PP P New TB F TL P
Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson WL J PP J TB O TL J
The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion WL O PP O TB O TL P
West Side Story – Steven Spielberg WL O PP J TB J TL J

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m predicting a straight DGA to Oscar match-up though that may not hold. If not, Spielberg would seem to be likely director out.
Tripp Burton: The DGA 5 (Andreson, Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, Villeneuve) seems a little too obvious, but I have no idea who to leave out there. I’m going to guess that Branagh gets replaced by a now annual foreign nominee (Hamaguchi), but I have a sneaking suspicion that Adam McKay is going to surprise us here again.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos New WL F New TL F
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog WL P PP O TB P TL P
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up Returned TB F
Peter Dinklage – Cyrano PP P
Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! WL J PP J TB J TL J
Will Smith – King Richard WL O PP O TB O TL O
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: Peter Dinklage hasn’t really caught on, which surprises me, but the others are all likely nominees.
Tripp Burton: Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington are a solid fourth here, but who will take the fifth? My guess is Leonardo DiCaprio over Peter Dinklage.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye WL O PP P New TB F TL P
Olivia Colman – The Last Daughter WL J PP J TB P TL P
Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers PP P Returned TL F
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza New WL F
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos WL J PP J TB J
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci WL J Returned PP F TB J TL J
Kristen Stewart – Spencer TL P
Rachel Zegler – West Side Story TB J

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: These are the likely five as I see them.
Tripp Burton: Literally anything can happen in this category. There is no one I would be my mortgage on at this point. Alana Haim seems to be picking up a lot of the young starlet votes, but my guess that Hollywood likes West Side Story more than other places means that Rachel Zegler will sneak in here.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Supporting Actor

Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar New TB F
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza New WL F TB O Returned TL F
Jamie Dornan – Belfast PP P
Mike Faist – West Side Story New WL F New PP F
Ciaran Hinds – Belfast WL P PP O TB P TL P
Troy Kotsur – CODA WL J PP J TB J TL J
Jared Leto – House of Gucci Returned TL F
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog WL J PP P TB P TL P

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: I would prefer to see Jesse Plemons nominated instead of Troy Kotsur but I seem to be in the minority on that one.
Tripp Burton: This category is Kodi Smit-McPhee, Troy Kotsur, and then everyone else. Will it be one or two Belfast men, another Power of the Dog actor, superstars Ben Affleck or Bradley Cooper, or another complete surprise like LaKeith Stanfield last year?
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Supporting Actress

Catriona Balfe – Belfast PP P TB J TL J
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter New WL F
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story WL J Returned PP F TB O TL J
Judi Dench – Belfast PP P
Kristen Dunst – The Power of the Dog WL P PP P TB P TL O
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard WL J TB P TL P
Ruth Negga – Passing WL J PP J TB O New TL F

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: If not Judi Dench, then Martha Plimpton or Ann Dowd for Mass.
Tripp Burton: This might be the category I feel the strongest about: Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, Ellis, and Negga seem like the most consistent contenders here. Which means we will probably get a big surprise.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Original Screenplay

Being the Ricardos WL J PP J TB J TL J
Belfast WL P PP O TB P TL P
Don’t Look Up New WL F PP J TB O TL O
King Richard WL J TB P TL P
Licorice Pizza WL O PP P TB O TL O
Mass PP O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: Hopefully Mass will be included. The others seem likely.
Tripp Burton: I’m going with the BAFTA five here, mostly because they seem like the biggest contenders.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA WL O TB O TL P
Drive My Car WL J PP J TB J New TL F
Dune New WL F PP O
The Lost Daughter PP P TB P TL P
The Power of the Dog WL P PP P TB O TL O
West Side Story WL J PP O TB J TL J

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: Can’t imagine anything else getting in over these.
Tripp Burton: This category is a real mix of Best Picture powerhouses and some smaller films with bigger names attached.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Original Song

Be Alive – King Richard WL O TL O
Dos Oruguitas – Encanto WL O PP O TB O TL O
Down to Joy – Belfast TB O
Guns Go Bang – The Harder They Fall WL O
Here I Am (Sining My Way Home) – Respect WL O PP O New TL F
Just Look Up – Don’t Look Up PP O New TB F TL O
No Time to Die – No Time to Die WL O PP O TB O TL O
Somehow I Do – Four Good Days TB O
Your Song Saved My Life – Sing 2 PP O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: Encanto and No Time to Die seem like locks, love for Belfast and Don’t Look Up could take those into song nominations, and I don’t underestimate the power of Diane Warren in this category. Best Song is always a crapshoot, though, and anything could happen.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Original Score

Don’t Look Up PP O New TB F TL O
Dune WL O PP O TB O TL O
Encanto TB O TL O
The French Dispatch New WL F PP O TL O
King Richard TB O
Licorice Pizza PP O
The Power of the Dog WL O PP O TB O TL O
Spencer WL O
The Tragedy of Macbeth WL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: I don’t know, I could make a case for every film on the shortlist here. Some of these are real guesses.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Film Editing

Belfast WL O PP O TB O TL O
Don’t Look Up TB O
Dune WL O PP O TB O TL O
Licorice Pizza WL O PP O New TB F TL O
The Power of the Dog WL O PP O TB O TL O
West Side Story WL O PP O TL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: I’ll go with 5 solid Best Picture contenders here, with West Side Story in sixth place, but that BAFTA nomination for Summer of Soul makes me think we might see a real surprise here.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Cinematography

Belfast PP O TB O TL O
Dune WL O PP O TB O TL O
Nightmare Alley WL O
The Power of the Dog WL O PP O TB O TL O
The Tragedy of Macbeth WL O PP O TB O TL O
West Side Story WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: Another baffling category this year. Nightmare Alley, Dune, Macbeth, and Power of the Dog have swept the precursor nominations. As for the fifth slot, West Side Story seems obvious but has no traction. Belfast and No Time to Die got the ASC and BAFTA nominations, but I’ll stick with the big musical.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Production Design

Belfast PP O
Cruella New TB F
Cyrano WL O
Dune WL O PP O TB O TL O
The French Dispatch New WL F PP O New TB F TL O
Nightmare Alley WL O PP O TB O TL O
The Tragedy of Macbeth TL O
West Side Story WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: I feel like West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, Dune, and The French Dispatch are solid here. The fifth is a crap shoot, and I don’t know what could fit in there.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Costume Design

Cruella WL O PP O TB O TL O
Cyrano WL O
Dune WL O PP O TB O TL O
House of Gucci WL O PP O TB O TL O
Nightmare Alley New WL F PP O TB O TL O
West Side Story PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: Cruella, Dune, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story seem like a set in stone five.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Coming 2 America TB O
Cruella WL O PP O TL O
Cyrano New WL F
Dune WL O PP O TB O TL O
The Eyes of Tammy Faye WL O PP O TB O TL O
House of Gucci New WL F PP O TB O TL O
Nightmare Alley PP O TB O
West Side Story TL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: Since expanding to five nominees, this category has made some room for a wider range of nominees. So I’m going with prosthetics, hair, and period pieces all around.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Sound

Belfast PP O New TB F TL O
Dune WL O PP O TB O TL O
The Matrix Resurrections TB O
No Time to Die New WL F PP O TB O TL O
A Quiet Place Part II New WL F
Spider-Man: No Way Home WL O PP O
tick, tick…BOOM! TL O
West Side Story WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: Musicals, action films, and Best Picture contenders all around.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Visual Effects

Dune WL O PP O TB O TL O
Free Guy New WL F TB J
Godzilla vs. Kong New TL F
The Matrix Resurrections WL O PP O TB O TL O
No Time to Die PP J
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings WL O PP J TB O TL O
Spider-Man: No Way Home WL J PP J TB J TL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: This could be an all Disney/Marvel list, but choosing which ones is the tough part. I’m leaving room for Dune and The Matrix Resurrections to crash the Disney party, though.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best International Feature Film

Drive My Car WL O PP O TB O TL O
Flee WL O PP O TL O
The Hand of God PP O New TB F TL O
A Hero WL O PP O TB O TL O
I’m Your Man WL O New TB F
Prayers for the Stolen TB O
The Worst Person in the World New WL F PP O TL O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: This might be the strongest race of the year, and I have changed my lineup a million times. There are almost more than 5 locks in here, which is impossible, so some tough choices have to be made. Expect some hearts to be broken.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Documentary Feature

Ascension PP O TL O
Attica PP O New TB F
The First Wave WL O
Flee WL O PP O TB O TL O
In the Same Breath TB O
Procession WL O TL O
The Rescue WL O PP O TB O TL O
Summer of Soul WL O PP O TL O
Writing with Fire TB O

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: The most popular documentary of the year seems to always lose out here, so a Summer of Soul snub is my big prediction here.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Audible PP O TB O
A Broken House WL O PP O TB O
Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker TL O
Day of Rage WL O
The Facility WL O New TB F
Lead Me Home PP O
Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day WL O
The Queen of Basketball WL O PP O New TB F TL O
Sophie & the Baron TB O
Terror Contagion TL O
Three Songs for Benazir TL O
When We Were Bullies PP O New TL F

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: With audible, The Queen of Basketball, and Sophie & the Baron, this is the most uplifting this lineup has ever been. One will probably lose out, but I don’t know which one.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.

Best Animated Short Film

Bad Seeds WL O TB O
Bestia PP O
Mum Is Pouring Rain WL O
The Musician PP O
Namoo PP O TB O
Only a Child PP O TB O TL O
Robin Robin TB O TL O
Souvenir Souvenir WL O
Step Into the River WL O TL O
Us Again WL O TB O TL O
The Windshield Wiper PP O New TL F

Wesley Lovell: My commentary is separately provided.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: This is pure guessing.
Thomas LaTourette: No individual commentary provided.