Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

May 7, 2021

Wrath of Man

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Even when there isn’t a pandemic going, Jason Statham films don’t do terribly well. I expect even worse during a pandemic.”
Box Office Results: $27.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] No one really expects much from Jason Statham at this point. He lucks into good roles in blockbusters with others to bolster his box office performance, but usually flops when acting on his own. The pandemic might have hurt the box office generally, but even this seems low.

May 14, 2021

Spiral

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. A steady performer during normal times, horror films have been even less successful during the pandemic. Attempting to reboot a once-popular series miight not work out right now.”
Box Office Results: $23.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Horror has been the most injured by the pandemic and this is yet another in a series of painful flops for the industry. Sequels can do well, but Saw had run its course and not many are that hyped about more chapters.

May 21, 2021

I Carry You With Me (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film is starting in limited and then expanding the following week. It’s not the kind of film that needs a platform release nor does it need a wide release. It could do well, but it’s highly doubtful that it will.”
Thoughts: Moved to June

May 28, 2021

Cruella

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film has solid prospects in Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling with a victory in Costume Design likely.”
Oscar Results: Still Good. While the Oscars are still months away, my opinion of the film’s chances haven’t changed a bit.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The second major Hollywood blockbuster push of the year, a late-pandemic release, it’s uncertain exactly how well it will perform, but Disney must expect decent returns if it’s going ahead with a release.”
Box Office Results: $86.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it didn’t quite hit the expected $100 million mark, the film did quite well for an early return-from-pandemic box office.

A Quiet Place: Part II

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. The first film scored a Sound Editing nomination. Not only does that category no longer exist, but sequals usually underperform their predecessors at the Oscars, so I wouldn’t expect anything this time around.”
Oscar Results: Still Doubtful. I struggle to see it holding out until Oscar time with so many other potential Sound nominees in evidence.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Horror has taken a major hit during the pandemic and it’s not certain if it will rebound as quickly as blockbusters like Godzilla vs. Kong. We’ll see how things go, but I wouldn’t expect the huge success of the original.”
Box Office Results: $160.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] If you saw this total at a non-pandemic box office, you wouldn’t be surprised. That it managed this tally during a depressed box office period is a huge success.