Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

June 4, 2021

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The box office has yet to see a full return to its prior glory, especially for horror films. The Conjuring series is one of the more consistent performers, so we might see with this film whether audiences are ready to return yet.”
Box Office Results: $65.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For a pandemic-era release, this result isn’t half bad, though it underperforms the series by a lot.

Spirt Untamed

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. It will make the finalist list because every eligible animated film usually does, but it won’t make the final five.”
Oscar Results: Still Unlikely. While the film was met with decent reviews, there’s a lot of competition this year from more prominent features.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The original, released almost twenty years ago, had a solid box office take, but it’s been far too long and the film looks far too dull to be much of a hit, but never underestimate the power of female-targeted animated films.”
Box Office Results: $17.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Of all the types of films that have started making inroads at the box office, animated films have yet to prove successful, especially ones aimed at female audiences.

June 11, 2021

In the Heights

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film is sure to be a player at this year’s Oscars simply because of its Tony-winning heritage. Whether it can secure any wins is doubtful, but I fully expect it to be a major entity this year.”
Oscar Results: Now Uncertain. The film was satisfactorily reviewed, but it will be diminished by A) West Side Story releasing later in the year and B) because no one seems to have seen it.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. If the box office were in a more solid state, I’d imagine this could be quite the hit, but it’s not and it probably won’t be. We could see a large boost of attendance from the Hispanic community, which might feel a certain kinship to the characters and we cannot count out Lin-Manuel Miranda fans. That said, this was his first musical, not his most popular and I cannot imagine the film will be huge, but it could be another film that shows the potential signs of life the box office might have with relaxed CDC guidelines.”
Box Office Results: $29.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This should have been a much bigger hit than this, but it released in an anemic period of box office interest, making its rather paltry sum rather disappointing.

June 18, 2021

The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard (on 6.16.21)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Another film made of a successful original will try to jumpstart the cinema industry with a raucous comedy that could well be the comedy hit of the summer if it can revive the box office.”
Box Office Results: $38 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The original was a solid hit four years ago, but with the pandemic screwing up box office projections and potential successes becoming abject failures, this was the latest in a long line of disappointments.

Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a surprise hit with audiences in spite of its less than stellar reviews. The sequel is sure to struggle similarly with critics, but audiences will likely ignore them. That family-friendly entertainment has had more success at the pandemic box office than non-family films, this could end up doing better than expected.”
Box Office Results: $40.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Family films haven’t recovered yet and while the original was quite popular, no one really asked for a sequel. They may be able to play this off as a pandemic flop, but I doubt that’s the whole case.

June 25, 2021

F9

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. This is the film that will either ignite the pandemic-laden box office back to its glory or demonstrate that audiences either aren’t ready to return or won’t ever come back. This franchise has been almost bulletproof.”
Box Office Results: $173 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Not living quite up to the Fast & Furious films of the recent past, in a depressed box office, this result is rather excellent.

I Carry You with Me

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The Academy has been gunshy about gay-themed indie dramas not made by prominent filmmakers, so its chances at the Oscars might be a bit scattershot.”
Oscar Results: Now None. The film seems to have disappeared as soon as it showed up.
Box Office Prospects: $1 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The indie box office hasn’t been boosted yet and I don’t see this picture doing that. Other films might draw bigger audiences.”
Box Office Results: $0.166 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It was never expected to be a hit, but sub-$200K is still pretty abysmal.