2021 Blockbuster Season Box Office Wrap-Up: July

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

July 2, 2021

The Boss Baby: Family Business

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $140 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a surprising success, so a sequel was put into the works. Now, it’s out and it will show us just how well the post-pandemic box office is working. I’ve taken that into consideration and lowered my estimate to try and get closer to expected numbers.”
Box Office Results: $57.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The pandemic box office wasn’t kind to this film, but then again it looked rather insipid, which might have hindered its outcome.

The Forever Purge

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. None of the prior films in this franchise has made less than $60 million, so if it weren’t for the pandemic, this number would be higher. Has the logjam been cleared or will it underperform the others as a result?”
Box Office Results: $44.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Even in the midst of a panemic, this result is fairly solid for a mid-brow horror film.

July 9, 2021

Black Widow

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. The MCU films have an uneven track record at the Oscars, but have done better in recent years. This one seems less likely to make it to the Oscars, though, due to its lack of excessive visual effects.”
Oscar Results: Still Unlikely. The film has some impressive visual effects, but its Summer release may have been too long ago and there is a lot of competition this year from more Oscar-friendly films.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. This film should do quite well at the box office, but I’m uncertain how well it can or will do. This is the first Marvel Cinematic Unvevrse film to release in the post-pandemic landscape and since I don’t doubt Disney Plus will cannibalize it a bit, this should give us a good litmus test for future such features.”
Box Office Results: $183.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it didn’t perform quite to its predecessors’ expectations, for a pandemic performer, this is excellent.

July 16, 2021

Escape Room: Tournament of Champions

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The first film did well enough at the box office to merit a sequel, but its chances of continuing that trend depends a lot on the post-pandemic interest in horror films, especially escape rooms.”
Box Office Results: $25.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The original wasn’t a huge hit and a sequel was surprising, but even for a mid-range horror film, these results are rather disappointing.

Gunpowder Milkshake

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The solid cast might make the film more sucessful than expected, but I sincerely doubt it will be that popular with audiences. It’s going to need great reviews to make much head way.”
Box Office Results: $ M
Thoughts: Did not release theatrically.

Space Jam: A New Legacy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The original film did just south of $100 million at the box office, which meant it was a huge success in its day. Does LeBron James have the same cachet with audiences? And will the infantile nature of the trailer dissuade reticent cinematogers? We shall see.”
Box Office Results: $70.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Lighting seldom strikes twice and waiting so long to make another film, especially one that trailers made look so mediocre, is proof that you can’t always re-invent the wheel.

July 23, 2021

Hotel Transylvania: Transformania

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results:
Box Office Prospects: $140 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. In its umpteenth outing at the box office, the series continues to draw in audiences, so a decent outlay of box office receipts is probable.”
Box Office Results: $ M
Thoughts: Rescheduled to 1.14.2022

July 23, 2021

Joe Bell

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film has an important message, but its June release suggests a lack of confidence in the film’s Oscar chances.”
Oscar Results: Now None. The film did not impress critics and audiences gave it the stink eye. Not a recipe for Oscar success.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This is the kind of story that doesn’t have a lot of cross-generational appeal and limits itself to a very small demographic that won’t make it a huge success that easily.”
Box Office Results: $1.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] What a dismal box office performance for this one. Even a noted actor in the lead can’t overcome tepid interest.

Old

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. The aging concept might give it a chance at either a Makeup & Hairstyling or Visual Effects citation, but there is too much competition to have much confidence in this film’s chances.”
Oscar Results: Now None. M. Night Shyamalan’s days as an Oscar player are likely over.
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While M. Night Shyamalan has modestly rehabilitated his career, his films still don’t have as much oomph at the box office as they once did. On top of that, this film doesn’t have any major names attached, which might limit its prospects.”
Box Office Results: $48.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Even though Shyamalan was having a seeming late-career renaissance, the box office just didn’t follow.

Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $95 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The GI Joe films have been modestly successful, but this film will try what the X-Men failed at several years ago, create an origin story for one of its major characters. We’ll see how audiences react. A muted reception compared to its predecessors is possible.”
Box Office Results: $28.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The original film’s performance didn’t seem adequate to greenlight a sequel and in the shadow of Shang-Chi, this performing badly isn’t unexpected.

July 30, 2021

The Green Knight

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film could do well in Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling, but it will have a ton of competition, much of it I’m not sure the film can overcome.”
Oscar Results: Still Uncertain. The first few critics prizes have given the film renewed hope, but can it really overcome all that is in competition this year? It’s unclear.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There’s little guarantee that a period adventure for legendary British Knights will make this film a huge success. The studio clearly believes in it putting it against a potential juggernaut in Jungle Cruise, but its chances at broad acceptance with audiences is severely limited.”
Box Office Results: $17.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This was never the kind of film that warranted a wide release, but with the platform release seemingly dead, a dubious box office performance was to be expected.

Jungle Cruise

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film has the faint whiff of failure around it. Yes, it was postponed a year, but while Dwayne Johnson and, to a lesser extent, Emily Blunt have built-in fans, the film looks more like Dolittle than it does anything else and we all know how that film’s fortunes turned out.”
Box Office Results: $117 M
Thoughts: [Success] Even Disney struggles sometimes to get its ambitious projects off the ground and this decent, but unexceptional success is tepid at best.

Stillwater

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This will be a tough sell to wide audiences and I don’t imagine it will do nearly as well as the studio is expecting it to.”
Box Office Results: $14.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Like Joe Bell, this kind of film just doesn’t have the box office draw one would expect. Still, this is a sight better than Joe Bell‘s box office performance, so that’s something, right?