2019 Precursor Predictions: British Academy Awards

The closest we are likely to ever come to a deadly accurate precursor, the members of BAFTA don’t entirely overlap the Oscars, but they have a lot of similarities. Matter of fact, some notable trends have developed as a result of the BAFTA selections. That said, their awards are being handed out in the midst of voting, suggesting that some who may have already voted won’t have the benefit of these awards.

BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM & TELEVISION ARTS AWARDS

Best Film

The Irishman
Joker (RU:Tripp)
1917 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (RU:Thomas)
Parasite (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The British production of 1917 is sure to be one of the year’s most lauded films and BAFTA voters are more likely to go for it than the more American films like Irishman, Joker, and Once Upon a Time. Parasite has to make a move here to upset at the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m going with the British-made 1917 over international favorite Parasite.
Tripp Burton: This being a British organization, 1917 looks like a slam dunk winner here. Don’t underestimate Europeans’ love of Joker, though.
Thomas LaTourette: I cannot imagine anything but 1917 winning this award.

Best Animated Film

Frozen II (RU:Peter)
Klaus (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Toy Story 4 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: With only two Oscar nominees on the list and two films that were passed over by the Academy, it seems likely that only the two hold-overs could prevail. Toy Story 4 has dominated the season, but if they are wanting something creative, Klaus is the only non-sequel on the list.
Peter J. Patrick: Toy Story 4 seems unbeatable with Frozen II a distant second.
Tripp Burton: This category is getting more and more confusing every day. I think Toy Story 4 holds on for a win here.
Thomas LaTourette: Toy Story probably wins, though it could go to Annie favorite Klaus. If it does, then the Oscar race is really up for grabs.

Best Director

The Irishman – Martin Scorsese
Joker – Todd Phillips
1917 – Sam Mendes (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
Parasite – Bong Joon-ho (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: A mirror of Best Picture where Sam Mendes is likely to follow home field advantage to a win and a subsequent Oscar while Bong Joon-ho is a potential spoiler.
Peter J. Patrick: Sam Mendes has surprisingly never won a BAFTA for direction, he will this time with Bong Joon Ho next in line.
Tripp Burton: Sam Mendes should continue his sprint to the Oscars, but if director Bong were to make a last-minute grab, this would be the place to do it.
Thomas LaTourette: Sam Mendes and 1917 will easily win this.

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Taron Egerton – Rocketman (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Since Joker was the most nominated, I suspect that it has to win somewhere and this may be its best bet. I would normally pick Adam Driver as runner-up, but I suspect Taron Egerton and Jonathan Pryce are more likely with this voting bloc.
Peter J. Patrick: Joaquin Phoenix should take this like everything else he’s won but if there is an upset I’m predicting British veteran Jonathan Pryce for the win.
Tripp Burton: The only thing stopping Phoenix from sweeping the televised awards could be the Britishness of The Two Popes and love of Jonathan Pryce.
Thomas LaTourette: The only one who might stop Joaquin Phoenix here is Welsh born Taron Egerton, but I find that doubtful.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley – Wild Rose
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Renée Zellweger – Judy (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Renee Zellweger could lose to hometown girl Saoirse Ronan or they could go with Scarlett Johansson with her double nominations. Either seems unlikely and Zellweger should easily win.
Peter J. Patrick: Could there be any other winner than Renée as Judy in her dying days in London? No, but Scarlett will be her closest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: There is nothing stopping Renee Zellweger now.
Thomas LaTourette: Renée Zellweger should have her speech ready for this and the Oscars.

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Joe Pesci – The Irishman (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is the one place I could see a different direction in voting. Brad Pitt is very much an American actor and his film is very American. While I have a hard time coming up with a good reason for any of these others to triumph, his is probably the most tenuous of the four acting nominees.
Peter J. Patrick: Everybody loves Brad this year, but if they were to go with someone else, Sir Anthony seems as likely as anyone.
Tripp Burton: Brad Pitt is pretty much unstoppable now.
Thomas LaTourette: Brad Pitt has been upstoppable and should easily win.

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern – Marriage Story (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Florence Pugh – Little Women (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Margot Robbie – Bombshell
Margot Robbie – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

Wesley Lovell: Laura Dern has taken nearly every award that wasn’t glued down. I could see Johansson winning here as well, but Florence Pugh could also surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: Dern will surely win another one here, but Johansson might be more of a threat to her than Zellweger in lead.
Tripp Burton: If there were a solid British competitor here, I would guess that Dern could falter, but she has this sewn up all the way to the Oscars.
Thomas LaTourette: Laura Dern is already the Oscar front runner, and this will cement that position.

Best Original Screenplay

Booksmart
Knives Out
Marriage Story (RU:Peter)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Parasite (Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While the Academy is likely to go Parasite, it’s possible this group goes a different direction, which could be Once or Marriage Story. That said, BAFTA is far more likely to recognize a foreign picture than the Academy is.
Peter J. Patrick: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood should take this one, but Marriage Story is poised to upset.
Tripp Burton: Tarantino keeps picking up writing prizes, and this is another one.
Thomas LaTourette: Quentin Tarantino will win for Once Upon a Time.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman (Peter)
Jojo Rabbit (Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Joker
Little Women (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Two Popes (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Little Women is in the lead, but any of the others could surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: The detailed screenplay of The Irishman should prevail here with Little Women the most likely to upset.
Tripp Burton: As this group mimics the Oscars more and more, Gerwig looks like a solid bet to win here.
Thomas LaTourette: I think Little Women will win the Oscar, but could see the WII set Jojo Rabbit winning here.

Best Original Score

Jojo Rabbit
Joker (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Little Women
1917 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Wesley Lovell: Unlike the Academy, BAFTA voters are more likely to recognize 1917 than Joker. If that’s the case, then Oscar may follow suit. If they go for Joker, it should have the Oscar all sewn up.
Peter J. Patrick: 1917 would seem to be the most likely, but Joker could surprise as it did at the Globes.
Tripp Burton: Like the Oscars, this is a battle between a newcomer and a veteran. I’m guessing Thomas Newman gets swept up in the love for 1917.
Thomas LaTourette: I am going with 1917, as they may like the British film better. If Joker wins, then it will be the favorite by far to win the Oscar.

Best Editing

Ford v Ferrari (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit (RU:Thomas)
Joker (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: With Parasite out of the way, this winner should confirm what we suspect about this race or upend it altogether.
Peter J. Patrick: Could be either Ford v Ferrari or Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, but let’s go with the car racing film here.
Tripp Burton: Ford v Ferrari looks like an easy winner here.
Thomas LaTourette: Ford v Ferrari should easily win this.

Best Cinematography

Ford v Ferrari (RU:Peter)
The Irishman (RU:Tripp)
Joker
The Lighthouse (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
1917 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Another win for 1917, which could be heading for a sweep.
Peter J. Patrick: 1917 should take this one easily with Ford v Ferrari its closest competition.
Tripp Burton: Roger Deakins is a shoo-in for another win.
Thomas LaTourette: 1917 is the easy winner here.

Best Production Design

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit (Peter, RU:Tripp)
Joker (RU:Peter)
1917 (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (Thomas, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: This is another category where BAFTA’s more likely to honor 1917 than the Academy is and any alternative choices could point to the potential Oscar winner even if a 1917 victory would not.
Peter J. Patrick: This is Jojo Rabbit‘s to lose.
Tripp Burton: The Hollywood recreations of Once Upon a Time… may not play as strongly to this group, meaning 1917 could sneak in a win.
Thomas LaTourette: The recreation of 1960s Hollywood will probably triumph over the trenches of 1917, but I could imagine it going the other direction.

Best Costume Design

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Judy
Little Women (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Little Women seems most likely, but don’t count anything else out just yet.
Peter J. Patrick: Let’s throw a bone to Little Women which will have a hard time winning anything else.
Tripp Burton: The much-discussed costumes of Little Women seems like an obvious winner here.
Thomas LaTourette: Little Women should win this which will make it the full front runner at the Oscars.

Best Makeup & Hair

Bombshell (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Joker
Judy (Thomas, RU:Peter)
1917
Rocketman (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I could see this going a different directly than expected. Bombshell has been a soft frontrunner for some time, but the one title on this list that doesn’t match the Academy’s is also the most likely to upset: Rocketman.
Peter J. Patrick: The most hair and makeup wins this, right? If so, then Bombshell seems unbeatable.
Tripp Burton: Go for the most makeup.
Thomas LaTourette: Judy should win this.

Best Sound

Ford v Ferrari (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Joker
1917 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Rocketman (RU:Peter)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Wesley Lovell: War is hell and 1917 has a better shot than most at this award.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m guessing 1917 over Rocketman but it will be close.
Tripp Burton: This is between war and cars. I’ll go with the war, since 1917 seems to be poised for a technical sweep here.
Thomas LaTourette: I think the home grown 1917 will triumph.

Best Special Visual Effects

Avengers: Endgame (Peter, Thomas)
The Irishman (RU:Tripp)
The Lion King (Wesley, Tripp)
1917 (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: With the Visual Effects Society going a different direction, Avengers seems to be in a weaker position and if The Lion King wins, the Oscar probably follows. However, if Irishman or 1917 are victorious, that could mean a whole new level of math in the race.
Peter J. Patrick: The most the merriest – Avengers: Endgame wins the race.
Tripp Burton: Like the Oscars, I see this leaning towards the colossal achievement of realistic animals.
Thomas LaTourette: Avengers seems the likely candidate to win.

Best Film Not in the English Language

The Farewell
For Sama
Pain and Glory (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Parasite (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Wesley Lovell: It would be shocking if the one film on this list that’s also a Best Film nominee doesn’t win.
Peter J. Patrick: Parasite should win this one easily with Pain and Glory likely its only real competition.
Tripp Burton: Parasite hasn’t lost this award yet, and probably never will.
Thomas LaTourette: Parasite should be the odds-on favorite.

Best Documentary

American Factory (Thomas, RU:Peter)
Apollo 11 (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Diego Maradona
For Sama (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Great Hack

Wesley Lovell: The tow most acclaimed documentaries on this list, American Factory and Apollo 11 look at distinctly American events. That makes way for For Sama, which is also nominated for Best British Film, which could ultimately help secure it the win here. The space race film, Apollo 11, might feel universal enough to not be hindered by being American.
Peter J. Patrick: For Sama should take this easily with American Factory its closest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Apollo 11 seems the solid winner here, but if voters want something more modern, For Sama is a dark horse favorite.
Thomas LaTourette: The Oscar front runner American Factory will probably win here.

Best Casting

Joker
Marriage Story (Wesley, RU:Peter)
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (RU:Thomas)
The Two Popes (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: This is a new award for them, so who knows what direction it will take. That said, Marriage Story and Once Upon a Time have the most impressive casts, so I imagine this will ultimately come down to them. I give the edge to Marriage Story for being an acting powerhouse, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hollywood-of-old casting takes the prize.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be an easy win for the star-studded Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.
Tripp Burton: Once Upon a Time….in Hollywood seems the biggest cast here, but The Two Popes is so specific that it could sneak in and win this.
Thomas LaTourette: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood has the largest cast, except for perhaps David Copperfield, so that may be enough for it to win.

Best British Film

Bait
For Sama
1917 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Rocketman (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Sorry We Missed You
The Two Popes (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There’s a possibility that BAFTA voters honor 1917 here and in Best Picture, but they could just as easily give this to Rocketman and 1917 Best Film. it wouldn’t be the first time, but it also wouldn’t be the first time for the two categories to match up exactly.
Peter J. Patrick: Should be another easy win for 1917 with Rocketman its toughest competition.
Tripp Burton: 1917 is the hot film right now.
Thomas LaTourette: 1917 should easily take this as well as best film.

Best British Short Animation

Grandad Was a Romantic (Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
In Her Boots (Peter, RU:Wesley)
The Magic Boat (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Pure guess work based on title alone.
Peter J. Patrick: Let’s go with In Her Boots in a tight race with Granddad Was a Romantic.
Tripp Burton: I don’t know. Pure guess.
Thomas LaTourette: I have no idea, so am going with the best title.

Best British Short Film

Azaar
Goldfish (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Kamali (RU:Tripp)
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Trap (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Pure guess work, but I went with the sole Oscar nominee on the list rather than any title considerations.
Peter J. Patrick: Seems like a no-brainer win for Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl).
Tripp Burton: Learning to Skateboard is an Oscar nominee, and a heart-warming film, that seems like an easy pick.
Thomas LaTourette: The Oscar-nominated Learning to Skateboard would seem a likely winner here.

Outstanding British Debut

Bait – Mark Jenkin, Kate Byers, Linn Waite (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
For Sama – Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Maiden – Alex Holmes (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Only You – Harry Wootliff
Retablo – Alvaro Delgado-Aparicio

Wesley Lovell: The most nominated title on this list is the most likely winner: For Sama. Maiden is probably the most widely recognized of the remaining nominees.
Peter J. Patrick: The multi-nominated For Sama should prevail with Bait its closest rival.
Tripp Burton: For Sama has a lot of nominations here, and should win something.
Thomas LaTourette: For Sama seemed to have the most other nominations, so I will predict it to win.

Rising Star Award (Previously Announced)

Awkwafina (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Kaitlyn Dever (RU:Wesley)
Kelvin Harrison Jr. (RU:Peter)
Jack Lowden (Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Michael Ward

Wesley Lovell: With none of these contenders in a big Disney international release, we have to rely on which one has the most potential to pull broad support. I’m giving the edge to Awkwafina who started out as a musician, which makes her instantly familiar. Kaitlyn Dever and Jack Lowden could also win.
Peter J. Patrick: Awkwafina had the most success during the year but Kelvin Harrison Jr. had two major critical hits so he could surprise.
Tripp Burton: Any of these seem possible.
Thomas LaTourette: Awkwafina made a big splash in The Farewell, and that should propel her to a win.

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