2019 Oscar Winner Predictions: FINAL

[NOTE: Tripp’s predictions and commentary have now been added. 2/6/20 6:26pm CST]Before we dig into our final predictions, we have some introductory paragraphs for you to read. The Oscars are on Sunday and we’ll see just how close or far apart we are when that day comes. A lot of races solidified while many races have fluctuated wildly this season.

Wesley Lovell: I have already posted my final thoughts on this year’s categories, so I won’t be providing extra commentary here, thereby giving my contributors and opportunity to shine in their observations.
Peter J. Patrick: This has been a predictable Oscar season in many categories but unpredictable in others.
Tripp Burton: No overarching commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This year it feels that a lot of the winners are pretty set, with picture, director, international film, and all four acting awards practically predetermined. 1917 has become the film to beat in many categories, with five probable wins, six counting visual effects which is still up in the air. It could do even better than that total, though I doubt it could ever win all ten nominations it is up for. For a film that came out so late, it has become surprisingly dominant, and all the more surprising since it had no acting nominations. It will be the first film since Slumdog Millionaire to pull that off. The only film that stands in its way is Parasite, a South Korean film by the famed Bong Joon-Ho. It is incredibly well liked in Hollywood, but that probably will not be enough to propel it to a win for best picture. More personal films have been winning best picture lately, but I think the Academy will get behind the war film as they are just not ready to give that award to a foreign language film.

Some categories have come more into play, with animated feature, both screenplays, production design, and visual effects not as certain as they seemed when the nominations were announced. It is nice that there is still some unpredictability in the awards, even if the top six are set. Annie awards for best animated film, the British Academy, and some of the guilds have surprised with wins and snubs. That adds a needed sense of suspense this year.


KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Prediction
(R) = Rundown Series
(F) = Final Nomination Predictions

Best Picture

  • 1917 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Ford v. Ferrari
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Joker
  • Little Women
  • Marriage Story
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
  • Parasite

Runners Up

  • Parasite (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: My first post-nomination prediction was 1917 and nothing has happened since to change that, but whereas I initially saw The Irishman as its toughest competition that film hasn’t fared well with awards in the interim. Parasite has now become so popular that I wouldn’t be surprised if it overtook 1917 for the win.
Tripp Burton: There are still some predicting Parasite, but a foreign language winner here is so unprecedented that I have a hard time predicting it. The safe choice is 1917.
Thomas La Tourrette: Starting with the Golden Globes, 1917 started dominating the field. Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and BAFTA awards have cemented it as the front runner. Parasite has way more overall awards, but the Academy is probably not quite ready to give best picture to a foreign language film. Look for 1917 to win.

Best Animated Feature

  • How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
  • I Lost My Body
  • Klaus (WL R) [New]
  • Missing Link
  • Toy Story 4 (PP O) (TB R) (TL O)

Runners Up

  • Klaus (PP R) (TB R) (TL R)
  • Toy Story 4 (WL F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Toy Story 4 is by far the most popular nominee but just as the nominators surprised with the exclusion of Frozen II, I wouldn’t be surprised if in the end voters jettison the latest edition of Toy Story for the heartwarming re-invention of the Santa Claus origin that is Klaus.
Tripp Burton: This is the ballot buster for a lot of us. I’m going with the Pixar choice, but this may be a time when the Disney machine falters.
Thomas La Tourrette: The fourth Toy Story film was not a needed sequel, but it is always fun to spend time with Woody, Buzz, and the gang. Klaus was an enjoyable telling of an alternate Santa Claus origin story. Neither is a must win film, but something has to. Pixar has a good track record at the Oscars, so I will still predict Toy Story 4 to win, but it is not a sure thing as Klaus is winning the right awards right now.

Best Director

  • 1917 – Sam Mendes (WL O) (PP O) (TB R) (TL O)
  • The Irishman – Martin Scorsese
  • Joker – Todd Phillips
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
  • Parasite – Bong Joon Ho

Runners Up

  • Parasite – Bong Joon Ho (WL O) (PP O) (TB R) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: No change here, I still see Mendes winning with Bong possibly causing an upset.
Tripp Burton: Always go with the DGA winner here.
Thomas La Tourrette: Talk about a film peaking at the right time. It now seems inevitable that Sam Mendes will take home a second Oscar for his work on 1917, a WWI drama. Bong joon-Ho may have won almost three times the number of awards as Mendes, but Mendes is winning the right awards at just the right time. Mendes will go on to win the Oscar.

Best Actor

  • Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

Runners Up

  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story (WL O) (TB O) (TL R)
  • Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes (PP O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Phoenix will collect the ultimate prize for the Joker, but all the nominees turned in remarkable performances with Pryce still my go-to prediction in case of an upset.
Tripp Burton: As his speeches keep getting better this season, Phoenix becomes more and more a guaranteed win.
Thomas La Tourrette: At one point this looked like Adam Driver’s to lose and he does look to be doing that. He was at best a weak front runner, but I am surprised at how dominant Joaquin Phoenix has become. Phoenix will win for playing an unlikable and awkward man who turns into the Batman enemy Joker.

Best Actress

  • Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
  • Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell
  • Renée Zellweger – Judy (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story (WL O) (PP F) [New] (TB R)
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Zellweger as Garland is virtually unbeatable but although I briefly considered Erivo for the upset, I’m back to my original thinking that the only who could possibly pose an upset is Johansson.
Tripp Burton: Renee has run through this season and the more traditional Academy will follow suit.
Thomas La Tourrette: Ever since Judy opened, this award has seemed destined to go to Renee Zellweger who did an amazing job becoming Judy Garland and is well deserving of all accolades she receives.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
  • Al Pacino – The Irishman
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman
  • Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

  • Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (PP O)
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Zellweger as Garland is virtually unbeatable but although I briefly considered Erivo for the upset, I’m back to my original thinking that the only who could possibly pose an upset is Johansson.
Tripp Burton: Nothing is stopping Brad Pitt from finally winning an acting Oscar.
Thomas La Tourrette: There are four previous Oscar winners and Brad Pitt, who will be joining that elite circle. This award definitely goes to Brad Pitt.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
  • Laura Dern – Marriage Story (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
  • Florence Pugh – Little Women
  • Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Runners Up

  • Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (WL R) (PP R) (TB O) (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Dern will win this one hands down. In another year, though, Johansson might win this in celebration of her two nominations but this isn’t another year.
Tripp Burton: Dern is probably the weakest of the four acting front-runners, but is so beloved that I can’t imagine her losing.
Thomas La Tourrette: Laura Dern is the only name that can possibly be read. No one else stands a chance this year.

Best Original Screenplay

  • 1917
  • Knives Out
  • Marriage Story
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
  • Parasite (WL R) (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL R)

Runners Up

  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (WL R) (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Recent wins, BAFTA excluded, have flipped this category in favor of original favorite Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, which along with Marriage Story will have to be content with it nomination.
Tripp Burton: Director Bong seems primed for taking an Oscar home, and this is probably the place to recognize him.
Thomas La Tourrette: Parasite is not the typical winner here both for content and being a foreign language film, but it is the likely winner. Look for it to win a close race with Once Upon a Time.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit (WL R) (PP R) (TB F) [New] (TL O)
  • Joker
  • Little Women
  • The Two Popes

Runners Up

  • Little Women (WL R) (PP O) (TB F) [New] (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: The BAFTA win for Jojo Rabbit seems to me to be an omen supplanting early favorites The Irishman and Little Women.
Tripp Burton: I still think Gerwig could win, but Jojo is the safest bet, I guess.
Thomas La Tourrette: Look for Jojo Rabbit to win a tight race with Little Women.

Best Original Song

  • I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away – Toy Story 4
  • ( I’m Gonna) Love Me Again – Rocketman (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • I’m Standing with You – Breakthrough
  • Into the Unknown – Frozen II
  • Stand Up – Harriet

Runners Up

  • I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away – Toy Story 4 (PP F) [New]
  • Stand Up – Harriet (WL O) (TB R) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: This one is Elton John’s to lose with Randy Newman’s latest Toy Story song probably his closest competition now.
Tripp Burton: I wonder if Cynthia Erivo will sneak in and win here, but I also can’t imagine the Academy not giving Bernie Taupin and Elton John a major award together.
Thomas La Tourrette: The song from Rocketman is the likely winner. The Academy could use this spot to honor Cynthia Erivo and the movie Harriet, but that does not seem likely. With Golden Globe and Satellites wins already under their collective belts, Elton John and Bernie Taupin should plan on adding an Oscar to their collections.

Best Original Score

  • 1917
  • Joker (WL F) [New] (PP O) (PP F) [New] (TL F) [New]
  • Little Women
  • Marriage Story
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Runners Up

  • 1917 (WL F) [New] (PP O) (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: This one is very close. Flip a coin between Joker and 1917. One or the other will win.
Tripp Burton: I really want to say Thomas Newman will finally win here, but the Joker score keeps rolling along
Thomas La Tourrette: I think this will come down to either the string heavy work in Joker or the more cerebral score of 1917. Originally I thought it would go to 1917, but Joker has definitely become the front runner, with the BAFTA win cementing that position. It sounds like it will go to Joker.

Best Film Editing

  • Ford v Ferrari (WL R)(TL O)
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Joker
  • Parasite (PP R) (TB R)

Runners Up

  • Ford v Ferrari (PP F) [New] (TB R)
  • Parasite (WL R)(TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: I keep seeing different winners on this one. Right now, I think it’s very close between Parasite and BAFTA winner Ford v Ferrari.
Tripp Burton: This is a weird category this year, and I could see anything happening. I’m going with the most popular film, Parasite.
Thomas La Tourrette: It boils down to the flashy cutting of Ford or the intimate drama of Parasite. I would have considered it a slam dunk for Ford, except that Parasite won the guild award for best drama. I will still give the edge to Ford v Ferrari, but I could see Parasite pulling off the upset.

Best Cinematography

  • 1917 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • The Irishman
  • Joker
  • The Lighthouse
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

Runners Up

  • The Irishman (TB O)
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (PP O)(TL O)
  • The Lighthouse (WL F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: This one seems like a must-win for 1917. If Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood or The Joker wins, it will be a major upset at this point.
Tripp Burton: Roger Deakins is running to a second Oscar here.
Thomas La Tourrette: It took Roger Deakins 14 tries to finally win an Oscar. Now on his 15th nomination, he will be taking home a second one for 1917.

Best Production Design

  • 1917 (PP R) (TB R)
  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (WL O)(TL R)
  • Parasite

Runners Up

  • 1917 (WL O)(TL R)
  • Jojo Rabbit (TB R)
  • Parasite (PP R)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: This is another category that I keep seeing different winners on. Right now, I see 1917 winning over Parasite but that could easily flip between now and the opening of the envelope.
Tripp Burton: 1917 seems poised to make a tech sweep here.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has turned into a real nail-biter too. I will still predict Once Upon a Time to win, but would not be surprised if 1917 is the name called when they open the envelope.

Best Costume Design

  • The Irishman
  • Jojo Rabbit
  • Joker
  • Little Women (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

Runners Up

  • Jojo Rabbit (WL O) (PP O) (TB R)
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: BAFTA gave it to Little Women and I think AMPAS will follow suit with Jojo Rabbit in the fallback position.
Tripp Burton: If Little Women needs to win something, this will be the place to acknowledge it.
Thomas La Tourrette: This now looks to be the one category where the exceptional Little Women will win an Oscar. Luckily it is also an award it deserves to win.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • 1917
  • Bombshell (WL O) (PP R) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Joker
  • Judy
  • Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Runners Up

  • 1917 (WL F) [New] (TB R)
  • Joker (PP O)(TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Bombshell is the obvious choice here, but this category is ready for a shakeup with Joker the one that could do it.
Tripp Burton: I know people say don’t bet against the Best Picture nominees, but Bombshell has so much latex that I don’t see voters passing it up.
Thomas La Tourrette: I think this is bound to go to Bombshell. Everyone raved about how much Charlize Theron was made to look like Megyn Kelly. Bombshell should easily win this award.

Best Sound Mixing

  • 1917 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Ad Astra
  • Ford v Ferrari
  • Joker
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

Runners Up

  • Ford v Ferrari (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Joker (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be an easy win for 1917 with Joker waiting in the wings.
Tripp Burton: Go with the tech sweep for 1917.
Thomas La Tourrette: This really comes down to two films, 1917 and Ford v Ferrari. It is becoming more common for films to win both sound awards and since 1917 is more likely to win the sound editing award, I will predict 1917 to win this too, but will not be surprised if it goes to Ford v Ferrari.

Best Sound Editing

  • 1917 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Ford v Ferrari
  • Joker
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Runners Up

  • Ford v Ferrari (PP R) (TB O) (TL O)
  • Joker (PP F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: The two sound categories often result in the same winner. I think this will be one of those times.
Tripp Burton: Go with the tech sweep for 1917.
Thomas La Tourrette: This will also come down to 1917 and Ford v Ferrari. War films do well in this category, and I can easily see it winning the award. I do not see any of the other films having any chance. 1917 wins, but it will be close.

Best Visual Effects

  • 1917 (WL R) (PP O)(WL R)
  • Avengers: Endgame
  • The Irishman
  • The Lion King (TB O)
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Runners Up

  • 1917 (TB O)
  • Avengers: Endgame (PP R)
  • The Lion King (WL O)(TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Seems like an easy win for 1917 with early favorite Avengers: Endgame as likely as any to pull an upset.
Tripp Burton: I know most everyone is going with the Best Picture frontrunner, but I don’t see the Academy passing up the quantity of The Lion King.
Thomas La Tourrette: My guess keeps changing in this category. The guild went to The Lion King and The Irishman, but the BAFTA went to 1917, which got nothing from the guild. I will now predict 1917, but would not be surprised if Lion King wins.

Best International Film

  • Corpus Christi
  • Honeyland
  • Les Misérables
  • Pain and Glory
  • Parasite (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

  • Pain and Glory (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: If Pain and Glory or anything else pulls an upset over Parasite it will one of the biggest shocks ever in this category.
Tripp Burton: The most assured win of the night.
Thomas La Tourrette: This year there is only one film in the conversation – Parasite. It has dominated the field, winning over 90% of the awards given. I doubt that anything can stand in the way of Parasite winning.

Best Documentary Feature

  • American Factory (WL O) (TB F) [New] (TL O)
  • The Cave
  • The Edge of Democracy
  • For Sama (PP O)
  • Honeyland

Runners Up

  • For Sama (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
  • Honeyland (PP O)(TL R)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: I think BAFTA favorite For Sama will take this over double Oscar nominee Honeyland but I won’t be too surprised if the result is the other way around.
Tripp Burton: This is a great list with lots of possible winners. I’m leaning on the Obama connection to push Netflix’s American Factory, but For Sama pulls a lot of heartstrings.
Thomas La Tourrette: After the surprising and sad omission of Apollo 11, American Factory became the front runner. It is still the likely winner, though Honeyland and recent BAFTA winner For Sama will both be in contention.

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • In the Absence
  • Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
  • Life Overtakes Me
  • St. Louis Superman (TB R)
  • Walk Run Cha-Cha

Runners Up

  • In the Absence (TL R)
  • Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (TB O)
  • Life Overtakes Me (PP O)
  • Walk Run Cha-Cha (WL O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m always surprised if I get this one right as I have no idea how people will vote.
Tripp Burton: This category likes kids, so either Skateboard or St. Louis Superman should win.
Thomas La Tourrette: The academy has a penchant for feel good documentaries in this category, so I expect the uplifting Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone to win. In the Absence follows a ferry disaster in South Korea and shows what can happen when no one takes charge but instead waits for orders from above. It is heart wrenching and would be a worthy winner but I think Learning to Skateboard will take home the Oscar.

Best Animated Short Film

  • Dcera (Daughter)
  • Hair Love (TB O) (TL O)
  • Kitbull (WL R)
  • Memorable (PP F) [New]
  • Sister

Runners Up

  • Dcera (Daughter) (PP F) [New]
  • Hair Love (WL R)
  • Kitbull (TB R) (TL O)

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Again, I have no idea how people vote in this category so nothing will surprise me here.
Tripp Burton: Hair Love has a great story behind it, much like last year’s Doc Short winner Period. End of Sentence. That should push it over the Pixar entry here.
Thomas La Tourrette: Both Hair Love and Kitbull are touching, which the academy will like. I give the edge to Hair Love, though could see the longer Kitbull prevailing.

Best Live-Action Short Film

  • Brotherhood (TL F) [New]
  • Nefta Football Club (TB F) [New]
  • The Neighbors’ Window (WL R)
  • Saria (PP O)
  • A Sister

Runners Up

  • Brotherhood (PP F) [New]
  • The Neighbors’ Window (TL F) [New]
  • Saria (TB F) [New]
  • A Sister (WL F) [New]

Wesley Lovell: My commentary was already provided. Check it out here.
Peter J. Patrick: Once again, I really haven’t a clue how they choose the winner in this category.
Tripp Burton: The charming Nefta might play well here, but if viewers get through Saria, it feels like the most important in the end. Don’t discount The Neighbor’s Window, which is the only English choice here.
Thomas La Tourrette: Brotherhood is not the best made of the films, but it is the longest and most topical, so I wonder if it will win. The Neighbors’ Window was a more interesting film, but will probably lose to Brotherhood. Though in this category almost any of them could win.

1 Comment

Add a Comment
  1. Tripp has been able to submit his final predictions & commentary. The above will be updated by the end of the day.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.