2019 Oscar Nominations Predictions: Our Statistics

Based on our predictions, here’s how we did (I changed two of mine in the days after this post was made, but I didn’t afford the others said opportunity, so I’m leaving them as previously predicted).

Once again, it was an incredibly close competition. 1 correct prediction separated first and a tie for second with fourth only five behind the others. Wesley Lovell came out on top with 94 with Tripp Burton and Thomas La Tourrette in second with 93 each. Peter J. Patrick came in fourth with 88 correct predictions. A caveat. Had I used my actual final predictions in lieu of the ones that were posted in the shared article, it would have been a three-way tie for first.

For the first time I can remember, all four of us predicted the same nine titles for Best Picture with our tenth slot each going to a different film. Thus, the nine we all agreed on were the nine nominees for Best Picture.

Of the predictions that all four of us agreed upon, seven of them didn’t come to fruition. Frozen II in Animated Feature, “Glasgow” in Original Song, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood for Film Editing, Rocketman for Costume Design, The Irishman for Sound Mixing, and both After Maria and Fire in Paradise in Documentary Short Subject.

As to the nominees that no one predicted there were four. In Animated Feature, Klaus. In Costume Design, Joker. In Makeup & Hairstyling, 1917. In Sound Mixing, Ad Astra.

Finally, we have the visionaries. These are the nominations that only one of us foresaw, ordered by contributor. Wesley picked Saria in Live Action Short Film. Peter was the most prescient, but also the most likely to go left-field, which didn’t pay off a lot of times, but did in these eight circumstances: Jonathan Pryce in Best Actor, Joker in Film Editing, The Irishman in Costume Design, Joker in Sound Mixing, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood in Sound Editing, Corpus Christi in International Film, and Life Overtakes Me in Documentary Short. Tripp got two unique predictions right, Jojo Rabbit in Film Editing and Nefta Football Club in Live Action Short. Thomas had five himself with Jojo Rabbit in Production Design, Honeyland in International Film, Walk Run Cha-Cha in Documentary Short, Dcera (Daughter) in Animated Short, and A Sister in Live Action Short.

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