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Once upon a time, the British Academy of Film & Television Arts gave out their awards after the Oscars, making them mostly an afterthought and, in some situations, a copycat. Then they shifted to before the Oscars and since then, they have become a major bellwether. What we are looking for here is not for what wins (though, that helps), but where upsets occur. Those upsets may presage a major Oscar shift. Either that, or we find out the status quo is as we thought all along.

These awards are telecast on a delay. The BBC requires them fit in a specific schedule and so they often record them and then air them after the fact. This means that we will find out the winners in trickles throughout the afternoon (the evening over in London) before we get to see the winners crowned.

BRITISH ACADEMY AWARDS

Best Film

Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While this can’t exactly be a proxy for the Oscars, since four of the Oscar nominees aren’t cited here, it can at least give us an idea of how strong The Shape of Water is when facing off against home-turf nominees Darkest Hour and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. I suspect that Shape of Water will win, but the home field advantage would favor Three Billboards. If Shape can win out here, then Oscar becomes a much stronger possibility.
Peter J. Patrick: Christopher Nolan hedged his bets by not submitting Dunkirk for Best British Film so that he would have an easier win here. Sorry, but BAFTA which is now as much of an Oscar precursor/predictor as any other group, will more likely go for The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which will likely be Best British Film winner as well.
Tripp Burton: I’m guessing that Shape of Water has a big night at the BAFTAS, but the British-funded Three Billboards could be a contender too (we saw how much the HFPA liked that film).
Thomas LaTourette: It seems probable that The Shape of Water continues its winning ways by taking home the BAFTA. If Three Billboards wins, then that throws the Best Picture race open. They list Three Billboards as a British film, which will give it more chances for an upset. The very British Darkest Hour and Dunkirk could surprise for an upset, but I think it will be between the first two. The days when this award really skewed towards the Brits seems to be over. The Shape of Water should win.

Best Animated Film

Coco (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Loving Vincent (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
My Life as a Courgette

Wesley Lovell: There’s no reason to believe that Coco doesn’t continue its streak here.
Peter J. Patrick: Does anything besides Coco have a chance? Nope.
Tripp Burton: I’m just gonna keep predicting Coco here.
Thomas LaTourette: It would be surprising if anything but Coco wins.

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Luca Guadagnino – Call Me by Your Name
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049

Wesley Lovell: While the Best Picture race is less than certain here, the Best Director race is probably a done-deal. Although a surprise by Martin McDonagh would definitely throw our predictions models into a tailspin (and would pretty much assure an Oscar win for Three Billboards), it seems likely that the man most responsible for one of the year’s biggest technical achievements should win the award, unless they think Christopher Nolan or Denis Villneueve (the biggest shock of the millennium, his choice would be) did better.
Peter J. Patrick: This will likely go to del Toro with homeboys Nolan and McDonagh having to wait for another year.
Tripp Burton: The BAFTAs like their British directors, which could help either Christopher Nolan or Martin McDonagh, but Guillermo del Toro has been on such a roll lately that I don’t see him slowing down here.
Thomas LaTourette: Guillermo del Toro seems likely to win as Best Director, continuing his strong sweep of awards including the DGA. British-born Nolan could sneak in as this is one high profile award they could give to Dunkirk, but it should easily go to The Shape of Water.

Best Actor

Jamie Bell – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Timothรฉe Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I don’t think there’s a surer bet this year than British actor Gary Oldman, already the Oscar frontrunner, winning the British Academy’s award for Best Actor. A win by anyone else, especially critic’s darling Timothรฉe Chalamet would upset the thinking and expose Oldman as a weaker frontrunner than we thought.
Peter J. Patrick: Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill would seem to have a lock on, with Timothรฉe Chalamet the only possible upset.
Tripp Burton: Gary Oldman has been unstoppable, and the British actor playing a British icon is a can’t miss for BAFTA voters.
Thomas LaTourette: Gary Oldman seems all but destined to win this award. Chalamet is probably his closest competition, but I really do not see him winning.

Best Actress

Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Originally, I had thought that Sally Hawkins could find some solace from BAFTA, but as Frances McDormand gained steam, that seemed less and less likely. Now, I feel she is an also-ran. Instead, Saoirse Ronan moves into second place, thanks to her native advantage.
Peter J. Patrick: McDormand in the British co-production of Three Billboards would seem to be a lock over closest runner-up Saoirse Ronan.
Tripp Burton: If these voters really like Three Billboards, then they should easily award Frances McDormand here.
Thomas LaTourette: American McDormand should win over Brit Hawkins. If she does not, then it could make this a much more interesting race.

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (RU:Thomas)
Hugh Grant – Paddington 2
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I don’t see a lot of potential for anyone other than Sam Rockwell. Christopher Plummer might appeal to BAFTA voters better than the others, but an outside win by Willem Dafoe or Hugh Grant would definitely alter the landscape.
Peter J. Patrick: I anticipate another win for Three Billboards here, with Christopher Plummer a possible upset winner.
Tripp Burton: I’m assuming that Three Billboards picks up a lot of awards here.
Thomas LaTourette: Rockwell has the showier role and that should be enough for him to beat out Dafoe.

Best Supporting Actress

Allison Janney – I, Tonya (Wesley, Thomas)
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread (Tripp, RU:Peter)
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Wesley Lovell: While I could easily see someone like Lesley Manville making a surprise appearance, I’m going to keep this as a fight between Janney and Metcalf with Janney coming out on top.
Peter J. Patrick: I think this is a three-way race between Oscar frontrunners Janney and Metcalf and Britain’s own Lesley Manville, who just happens to be one of Gary Oldman’s ex-wives. I’ll say Metcalf for the win with Manville and Janney next in line.
Tripp Burton: If any BAFTA acting category goes against the grain, it is probably this one, and it is a chance to honor a great British actress like Lesley Manville.
Thomas LaTourette: As has been happening recently, Janney will beat Metcalf.

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
I, Tonya
Lady Bird (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Our first genuine proxy for the Oscar race with all but one of the Oscar nominees (The Big Sick isn’t competing anyway). Three Billboards, being a film by British filmmaker Martin McDonagh has a natural advantage here, so his win won’t mean a lot for Oscar consideration (unless it also wins a few other unexpected awards). However, if Get Out or Lady Bird manage to eke out a win here, then Three Billboards might be a lot more vulnerable than we think.
Peter J. Patrick: Another likely win for Three Billboards with Lady Bird chomping at its heels.
Tripp Burton: This complicated category is getting more and more confusing to predict, but since neither Get Out or Lady Bird did great with this voting bloc, I’m guessing that Three Billboards wins here.
Thomas LaTourette: These all feel like very American films and might be a little foreign to the British Academy. I think the more emotional Three Billboards will win, but this is one place that Lady Bird could score an upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Death of Stalin (RU:Thomas)
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (RU:Wesley)
Molly’s Game
Paddington 2 (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: James Ivory is sure to win another prize going into the Oscars. I can’t really see any other option.
Peter J. Patrick: Call Me Your Name should win this easily with the delightful Paddington 2 its closest competition.
Tripp Burton: James Ivory is winning every award possible, and I can’t imagine that British voters change that at all.
Thomas LaTourette: Call Me by Your Name should continue its winning streak and should easily win. The British-made The Death of Stalin has an outside chance of scoring an upset, but that seems very unlikely.

Best Original Music

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Phantom Thread (Peter, RU:Wesley)
The Shape of Water (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The Oscar race should also be represented here with The Shape of Water leading the pack. Phantom Thread and Dunkirk could both surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: A close one, but I’m guessing Phantom Thread over The Shape of Water.
Tripp Burton: I could see any of these five winning, but I’m guessing that the below-the-line categories will be fought out between Dunkirk and The Shape of Water.
Thomas LaTourette: The Shape of Water should easily win this award. If Dunkirk or Phantom Thread manages an upset, that could throw Desplatโ€™s expected Oscar victory up in the air.

Best Editing

Baby Driver (RU:Wesley)
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Shape of Water (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Wesley Lovell: Dunkirk is the de facto leader, but anything else could win.
Peter J. Patrick: This could go to any one of the nominees, but I think this is one that could be safely in Dunkirk‘s pocket.
Tripp Burton: Dunkirk‘s fragmented story line should play well here, unless The Shape of Water really goes on a sweep.
Thomas LaTourette: The very edited Dunkirk should win here unless The Shape of Water turns into a real runaway winner.

Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049 (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk (Tripp, RU:Peter)
The Shape of Water (Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Wesley Lovell: Will this be a forerunner of the Oscars? Who knows. Mudbound isn’t in this race, which gives Blade Runner 2049 the edge and a win will certainly give it needed visibility going into the Oscars. However, The Shape of Water could win as well, which would give it a leg-up at the Oscars and pretty much destroy Blade Runner‘s chances.
Peter J. Patrick: What the heck, let’s give this one to Blade Runner 2049 in a close race with Dunkirk.
Tripp Burton: With no Mudbound here, this is a chance for someone else to win an award.
Thomas LaTourette: I think the dreamy The Shape of Water work will beat out the futuristic Blade Runner 2049, but this will be close.

Best Production Design

Beauty and the Beast (Peter)
Blade Runner 2049 (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Darkest Hour (Tripp)
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Another situation where the Oscar frontrunners are poised to claim victory, though I could see this group going a different direction than the Academy is likely to go, giving the award to Blade Runner or Beauty and the Beast over Shape of Water.
Peter J. Patrick: I see Beauty and the Beast for the win, with the runner-up any one of the nominees. I’ll go with Blade Runner 2049.
Tripp Burton: The recreation of London in Darkest Hour could play well to British voters.
Thomas LaTourette: The Shape of Water probably wins here, but will face stiff competition from both Blade Runner and Beauty and the Beast.

Best Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Darkest Hour (Tripp)
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Shape of Water

Wesley Lovell: This could tell us a lot about how Oscar voters are feeling. Some feel that Phantom Thread could be the Oscar victor, but have discounted Beauty and the Beast, the film with the most and the most intricate costumes. If Phantom Thread pulls off a win here, look for an Oscar in its future. If it loses to Beauty and the Beast, nothing really changes.
Peter J. Patrick: Beauty and the Beast would seem to be an easy winner here, with Darkest Hour its closest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: I’m not really sure about this, but I think Darkest Hour could do well here.
Thomas LaTourette: Phantom Thread, a film about a fashion designer, should easily win.

Best Makeup & Hair

Blade Runner 2049 (RU:Tripp)
Darkest Hour (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
I, Tonya
Victoria & Abdul (RU:Wesley)
Wonder (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Three of Oscars nominees are here and a winner that isn’t one of them would be unexpected. Darkest Hour is the only Best Picture nominee in this bunch, which gives it an obvious boost, but the prosthetic makeup on Gary Oldman is often cited as part of what made the character so effective, so it should win.
Peter J. Patrick: With Gary Oldman constantly bringing up all those hours he spent in the chair getting to look like Churchill, can there be any other winner than Darkest Hour? I’ll go with Wonder for runner-up.
Tripp Burton: There’s no beating the Winston Churchill makeup this season.
Thomas LaTourette: In a preview of the Oscar race, Darkest Hour beats Wonder.

Best Sound

Baby Driver (RU:Wesley)
Blade Runner 2049 (Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Dunkirk (Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: I may be the only person who thinks that Blade Runner might be a stronger competitor here, but it’s quite possible it’s in the front. I won’t be surprised if Dunkirk wins, but I suspect Baby Driver might play a bit better with these voters than it will at the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick: Let’s give this one to Dunkirk and call Star Wars: The Last Jedi its closest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: I’m assuming that the war sounds of Dunkirk will prevail.
Thomas LaTourette: Dunkirk should win here, though if an upset happens, it could go to almost any of the other nominees.

Best Special Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This category will tell us whether the Academy might follow the VES or if it will forge a new way as it often has. War for the Planet of the Apes could win and its win would dramatically increase its Oscar chances, but Blade Runner 2049 winning will likely push that film towards Oscar glory as well. Dunkirk, being the only Best Picture nominee of this bunch, could pull off an upset.
Peter J. Patrick: I see Blade Runner 2049 easily taking this one with War for the Planet of the Apes its closest competition.
Tripp Burton: This is a very different lineup than the Oscars, but the sheer size of Blade Runner should help it win.
Thomas LaTourette: Blade Runner will probably beat out Planet of the Apes, especially as the previous Apes films did not win this award.

Best Film Not in the English Language

Elle (RU:Wesley)
First They Killed My Father
The Handmaiden
Loveless (Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
The Salesman (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Strangely enough, I think the two 2016 U.S. releases on this list stand a better chance than the two 2017 U.S. releases do (Sorry, The Handmaiden, I’m not counting you). Elle was popular two years ago, as was The Salesman. I suspect the latter will carry forward the victory lap the film received last year, but Elle could also come out on top. Then again, Loveless is nominated at the Oscars this year, so anything could happen.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s a toss-up between the Russian entry, Loveless, and the Iranian entry, The Salesman. I think it will go to Loveless.
Tripp Burton: Any of these could win, but I’ll go with the most recent release.
Thomas LaTourette: Last yearโ€™s Oscar winner, The Salesman, will probably take this, though the more recent Loveless will give it strong competition.

Best Documentary

City of Ghosts (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
I Am Not Your Negro (Wesley)
Icarus (Thomas)
An Inconvenient Sequel
Jane (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: If Jane couldn’t even secure an Oscar nomination, I’m not sure it could win. 2016’s I Am Not Your Negro could easily win out over the others, which are all 2017 releases.
Peter J. Patrick: Everybody loves Jane Goodall and her chimps. What they love almost as much, I don’t know but I’ll go with City of Ghosts here.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea how some of these films may play to British audiences, but Jane is an audience favorite and will probably prevail.
Thomas LaTourette: I think the topicality of Icarus being about a previous doping scandal at the Olympics will take it to victory over the more feel good Jane, but it could easily go the other way.

Best British Short Animation

Have Heart (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Mamoon (Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Poles Apart (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I have no idea, so I went by name alone.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s pure guesswork.
Tripp Burton: This is a pure guess.
Thomas LaTourette: This is just a guess.

Best British Short Film

Aamir
Cowboy Dave (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
A Drowning Man (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Work (Tripp)
Wren Boys (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: See my comments in British Short Animation.
Peter J. Patrick: Another guess here.
Tripp Burton: This is a pure guess.
Thomas LaTourette: Another guess.

Best British Film

Darkest Hour (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Death of Stalin (RU:Peter)
God’s Own Country
Lady Macbeth
Paddington 2
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: The only thing that might prevent Three Billboards from winning the top award is the fact that it’s also nominated here. That could give BAFTA voters the idea that they can vote for it here while recognizing Shape of Water in the top category. Either that, or this could go to Darkest Hour with Three Billboards winning the top prize. The winner here may signal the winner in the top category.
Peter J. Patrick: Three Billboards has this one in the bag, with The Death of Stalin my guess as to the closest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: We could be underestimating Darkest Hour with these voters, and I’m going out on a limb that they may honor it here.
Thomas LaTourette: This could really go to almost any of the nominees. I am thinking that the more high profile Three Billboards will beat out the more British Darkest Hour, but I am not at all certain of this prediction.

Rising Star Award

Timothรฉe Chalamet (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Daniel Kaluuya (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
Josh O’Connor (RU:Peter)
Florence Pugh
Tessa Thompson (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Voted by the public, I suspect that Daniel Kaluuya, being significantly more familiar than many of the other names and faces on this list could win, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Timothรฉe Chalamet win. I’m also beginning to second-guess myself and lean towards Tessa Thompson, who has a much more visible and more recent blockbuster to bolster her chances.
Peter J. Patrick: It’s the public that votes on this one, so I would expect the very popular and very British Daniel Kaluuya will win this with Britain’s Josh O’Connor and America’s Timothรฉe Chalamet the next two most likely candidates.
Tripp Burton: Since this is voted on by the public, any one of these could win.
Thomas LaTourette: With high profile work in both Call Me by Your Name and Lady Bird, Chalamet probably has the upper hand here.

Outstanding Debut

The Ghoul (RU:Peter)
I Am Not a Witch (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Jawbone (RU:Thomas)
Kingdom of Us
Lady Macbeth (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I’m not exactly sure how they pick this award, but Lady Macbeth is the best reviewed of these, which should help.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no idea what direction they will go in here. My best guess is:
Tripp Burton: Lady Macbeth got the most attention (at least in America) so I’m going with it here.
Thomas LaTourette: Lady Macbeth is the only one I have heard of, so I will go with it.

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