So here we are. Less than 48 hours before the Academy announces all 24 categories live and we find out just how much we knew and didn’t know. Tomorrow morning, I’ll be going live with our annual Oscar Morning feature, which will include run-downs of all the categories that will be announced Thursday morning (and in the appropriate blocks). Some of my commentary may be reserved for there, so I’ll stick with some stuff that might not get referenced tomorrow.

Everyone else has put their thoughts on paper and while we all generally agree about certain things, you’ll see there’s plenty of room for error with none of us 100% agreeing on any one slate of nominees. That also makes it fun. Each of us have picked a couple of places to go out on a proverbial limb, so it will be interesting to see just how right we all were.

KEY:

Best Picture

• (40) Boyhood (10 S) (10 S) (10 S) (10 O/S)
• (36) Birdman (9 O) (9 O) (9 N) (9 S)
• (31) The Grand Budapest Hotel (8 O/D) (8 D) (8 D) (7 D)
• (28) The Imitation Game (7 S) (6 C) (7 S) (8 N)
• (22) The Theory of Everything (6 D) (5 O) (6 N) (5 N)
• (19) Selma (2 N) (7 N) (4 N) (6 N)
• (14) Gone Girl (1 O) (4 O/F) (5 N) (4 O)
• (13) Whiplash (5 D) (3 F) [New] (2 F) [New] (3 N)
• (8) Nightcrawler (4 F) [New] (2 F) [New] (1 F) [New] (1 F) [New]
• (8) American Sniper (3 N/F) (3 N/F) (2 F) [New]
• (1) A Most Violent Year (1 N)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: If we were still at five nominations, I have little doubt that it would be Boyhood, Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything. Moving beyond that is trickier and I could see them shorting the list by two or three nominees. Yet, of all of these, Nightcrawler, Whiplash and American Sniper have shown the most improvement while Gone Girl remains consistently in play, but struggling the way The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo did for David Fincher. The bi question mark for me is Selma and whether it can secure enough votes to make the final list and fill out the ninth slot, which it almost feels like it’s fallen to.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m fairly sure about the first six, less so about the remaining four.
Tripp Burton: I have gone back and forth on this list quite a bit, and have realized I’m not going to be certain until the nominations are announced. Boyhood, Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything should all be written in stone: they have the most nominations this year in the precursors and haven’t really faltered all season. Gone Girl seems like a solid bet for a nomination, while the rising American Sniper and the falling Selma will probably both end up on the list too. That is 8 films, leaving maybe one or two more slots with a lot of contenders: I’m guessing either Whiplash or Nightcrawler will take a nomination, but Into the Woods and Foxcatcher are also still in play. What a fun year to follow this!
Thomas LaTourrette: This is a year where I could see anywhere from 5 to 10 films being nominated, not the 9 that have been every year since the Academy increased the number possible. Boyhood, Birdman and The Imitation Game all seem set, and it would be difficult to imagine any of them missing out here. Especially after last night’s Golden Globe win, The Grand Budapest Hotel also seems likely to join them. This was a nomination I dismissed months ago, but now it hard to imagine it not happening. Even with a botched Oscar campaign, I think Selma will pull off a nomination, though definitely not a win. The Theory of Everything is the last film that I feel absolutely confident about getting a nomination. If they go to seven nominations, I expect Gone Girl to join the ranks, and eight would mean a nom for Whiplash. Next in line I would list American Sniper. It did not seem to have the reviews to end up here, but with a PGA nomination, it now seems more likely. In the final spot I am putting Nightcrawler, another film that got a surprising PGA nomination. Now that it has also picked up a ACE nomination, it seems like it might supplant Unbroken for a spot. Unbroken at one point seemed like a possible winner, and now it appears likely it won’t even pull off a nomination. The only other film that could sneak in would be Foxcatcher, but it is a film that hardly gets press now. It will be interesting to see how many films get nominated, for it feels like a year where anything could happen.

Best Animated Feature

• Big Hero 6 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Book of Life (PP O)(TL F) [New]
• The Boxtrolls (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• How to Train Your Dragon 2 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Lego Movie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Song of the Sea (TB D)
• The Tale of the Princess Kaguya (WL O) (TB D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I think it’s entirely possible that The Boxtrolls or How to Train Your Dragon 2 get dropped from this list for Song of the Sea. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both it and Princess Kaguya taking two of the five slots along with sure-things Big Hero 6 and The Lego Movie. I could also see a case where Kaguya is the one left off in favor of Song of the Sea.
Peter J. Patrick: It’s all about The Lego Movie and whatever the animation branch selects as this year’s also-rans.
Tripp Burton: Between the three big Hollywood hits of the year and the two big art house hits of the year, all of which got positive reviews, this is one of the most solidified categories of the year.
Thomas LaTourrette: The three major films, Big Hero 6, How to Train Your Dragon 2 and The LEGO movie all are assured nominations. The studios behind them are planning major campaigns, so it may prove a more interesting race than predicted when this summer many assumed LEGO would win handily. That proved to be the case when Dragon surprisingly won the Golden Globe. That probably means that it really is a race now. The BoxTrolls will probably overcome middling reviews to claim the fourth spot, though there is no way I can imagine it winning. The fifth spot is much harder to predict. I thoroughly enjoyed the colorful The Book of Life, full of Mexican Day of the Dead mythology. I would enjoy seeing it nominated, and a producer’s guild nomination makes it seem more possible now. It will be a hard fought race if it succeeds here, with stiff competition from both Song of the Sea and The Tale of Princess Kaguya from the fabled Studio Ghibli. Any of the three might be nominated, but I think Book of Life might just squeak in for the final spot.

Best Director

• Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL D) (PP D) (TB D) (TL O/F)
• Damien Chazelle – Whiplash (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
• Ava DuVernay – Selma (PP N)(TL N)
• Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman (WL N) (PP S) (TB N) (TL N)
• Richad Linklater – Boyhood (WL S) (PP S) (TB S) (TL S)
• Pawel Palkowski – Ida (PP F) [New]
• Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game (WL N) (TB S/F) (TL D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Anderson, Inarritu and Linklater seem like certainties. Tyldum should benefit from the Harvey Push. That leaves a fifth slot that I’m torn between a number of possibilities. It would be great if the Academy nominated the first black female for director, but with the film’s weakness in the precursors, I am not 100% confident about its potential. James Marsh could make it in for his Theory of Everything, an awards season crowd favorite, but ultimately, I went with newcomer Damien Chazelle who beat out fierce competition and landed a nomination from BAFTA for Best Director.
Peter J. Patrick: Palikowski is my odd man in.
Tripp Burton: We are submitting these predictions before the DGA nominations come out, so this is a little bit of a wild guess. Birdman, Boyhood, Grand Budapest Hotel and Imitation Game have been so consistent all through the season that they seem well on their way to a directing nomination. For the fifth slot, you have favorites that have lost momentum (Ava Duvernay), films picking up a lot of momentum (James Marsh, Clint Eastwood) and some dark horses that may be more popular than we think (Damien Chazelle, Dan Gilroy).
Thomas LaTourrette: The directors of Birdman and Boyhood are both guaranteed nominations, and will likely be the main competitors for the Oscar. Ava DuVernay will likely make history as the first woman of color to be nominated here, but a poorly run Oscar campaign for the film Selma has put that in some doubt. I do wonder if the old boys club of the directing branch could play against her as well. I think she will be nominated, but I am no longer sure about that. The final two slots are much more wide open and seemingly more up in the air every day. I do think that Morten Tyldum will get a nom for his work on The Imitation Game, but having not gotten a BAFTA nomination makes it a little less sure. I have wondered about David Fincher (Gone Girl) being in consideration, and he may get that final spot. However, I am now wondering if there is enough love for The Grand Budapest Hotel to carry Wes Anderson into the running. He may get it, but it would not surprise me if it went to James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner) or Clint Eastwood (American Sniper). It really could go to any of them.

Best Actor

• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game (WL N) (PP C) (TB S/F) (TL C)
• Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL F) [New]
• Brendan Gleeson – Calvary (PP D)
• Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler (WL D) (PP F) [New] (TB D) (TL D)
• Michael Keaton – Birdman (WL S) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O/S)
• David Oyelowo – Selma (TL N)
• Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything (WL O) (PP O) (TB N) (TL N)
• Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner (TB O/D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Keaton, Redmayne and Cumberbatch are unlikely to get forgotten. Gyllenhaal has quietly and efficiently locked in the fourth slot thanks to a surprising precursor trajectory. The fifth slot could go a number of ways, Bradley Cooper could ride a wave of support for American Sniper, David Oyelowo could ride a wave of late-breaking support for Selma or Steve Carell could prove more formidable than anyone thought possible for Foxcatcher. In the end, I went with Ralph Fiennes riding a wave of support for The Grand Budapest Hotel, which has been doing better than yone thought possible.
Peter J. Patrick: Gleeson is my left field prediction.
Tripp Burton: Almost every year we get one or two acting nominees who have no major precursor nomination (Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA) yet manage to sneak in. Last year was Jonah Hill, 2012 was Quvenzhane Wallis and Jacki Weaver, 2011 was Max von Sydow. 2010 didn’t have one, but 2009 and 2008 both did. This year, I am predicting Timothy Spall may sneak into that category. Mike Leigh always does very well at the Oscars, even if he doesn’t other places (although that BAFTA snub seems suspect), and Timothy Spall seems the kind of journeyman actor who deserves an Oscar nomination. The question is, who will he knock out? Of the five men who have been nominated everywhere, my guess is Steve Carell is in the most unpopular film and will get left off. This is assuming that the fading of Selma will hurt David Oyelowo. What a weird category.
Thomas LaTourrette: For best actor, Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Michael Keaton (Birdman) and David Oyelowo (Selma) still seem set to earn their first nominations. I am think that final spot will go to surprise SAG and Golden Globe nominee Jake Gyllenhaal for his work in Nightcrawler. It’s not the type of role I would have guessed would do as well as it has, but it is getting him noticed and nominated for other awards and it may carry him on to his second Oscar nomination, though the first in this category. His stiffest competition comes from either Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) or Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner). If American Sniper does well across the board, it could carry Bradley Cooper to a nomination, but that seems reasonably unlikely at this point. These five actors seem fairly set.

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – Big Eyes (WL N/F) (TB O/F)
• Jennifer Aniston – Cake (TL D)
• Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night (PP D)
• Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything (WL F) [New] (PP O/N) (TB N) (TL N)
• Julianne Moore – Still Alice (WL N) (PP N) (TB N) (TL N)
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl (WL N) (PP C) (TB O) (TL C)
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild (WL S) (PP C) (TB O) (TL O/S)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: There are four spots on this list that seem unmovable. Jones, Moore, Pike and Witherspoon. The third spot seems to be waffling between three strong contenders. Amy Adams came from behind last year to secure an Oscar nomination; Marion Cotillard had one of the best precursor performances of a foreign language actress (since her last chain of wins for La Vie en Rose); and Jennifer Aniston has the one-two-three punch of Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globe and Broadcast Critics nominations. I had been holding onto the Aniston prediction based on that three-group set, yet after the film’s significant flaws came out of screenings, I wonder if the Academy could move past a bad movie just to nominate her. Her status as a TV actress, albeit one with some pretty good big screen work in small films, could hurt her. Cotillard faded fast after her string of wins and while she kept getting them, something about the lovable Adams has me believing her affable presence will win out.
Peter J. Patrick: I’d be surprised if any of these five were left off the list.
Tripp Burton: We have four actresses here who have the trifecta so far of Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA nominations: Felicity Jones, Julianne Moore, Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon. But you know what? Four actresses in the last 3 years have gotten that trifecta and have missed out on an Oscar nomination. That could mean that Felicity Jones is more vulnerable than she looks on paper, but who comes in to her slot? Jennifer Aniston seems like a growing possibility for the unseen-by-most Cake, but a fifth vacant slot could open the door for Emily Blunt or Amy Adams or surprise nominee Marion Cotillard to appear from nowhere. For now I’m guessing Jones holds onto her slot, and a gnawing feeling says not to give up on Oscar-darling Amy Adams, especially after Friday’s BAFTA nomination and a Globe win.
Thomas LaTourrette: Julianne Moore (Still Alice) is still the frontrunner here and will assuredly be nominated. She will be joined by Reese Witherspoon (Wild) and Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything). I also think that Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) will score a nomination, though she is in the weakest spot of the first four. The last position has me absolutely unsure. For a long time I thought Amy Adams would easily pick up a nom for Big Eyes, but it then looked like she would be passed over for Jennifer Aniston (Cake). When Aniston got a SAG nomination and Adams did not, it seemed like she had the momentum. Winning the Golden Globe does show that Adams has support, but I wonder if it has come too late. The only other player at this point would seem to be Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), but I just don’t see that happening. It is never easy to rule out Adams, as five previous nominations attest, but I think she will be edged out for the last spot by Aniston.

Best Supporting Actor

• Riz Ahmed – Nightcrawler (WL F) [New] (PP D)
• Robert Duvall – The Judge (TB O/D) (TL D)
• Ethan Hawke – Boyhood (WL D) (PP N) (TB D) (TL N)
• Edward Norton – Birdman (WL N) (PP S) (TB N) (TL S)
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher (WL C/N) (PP O/D) (TB O) (TL O)
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (WL N) (PP N) (TB N) (TL C)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: If you bet against Norton and Simmons getting nominations, you’d be a fool. Ruffalo has likewise earned a rather solid spot on this list. With the strength of Boyhood, I’d be shocked if Hawke didn’t show up. Again, that leaves one spot up for grabs. It could go to Robert Duvall, Steve Carell (bumped to support like he was at BAFTA), Josh Brolin or Tom Wilkinson. My hunch is that the strong support for Nightcrawler pulls in a few bubble nominees and Ahmed barely squeaks past those others.
Peter J. Patrick: Ahmed is the only one in danger of being left off the list here.
Tripp Burton: These five names have been on most every list all season, and as hard as I try, I don’t see a way that they differ from that list Thursday. It’s not that these all feel like locks (Duvall and Ruffalo both feel vulnerable), you just don’t know who else is strong enough to unseat them.
Thomas LaTourrette: Long-time frontrunner J. K. Simmons (Whiplash) is still the one to beat, as his Golden Globe win showed. He should easily be joined by Edward Norton (Birdman), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher). I think the final spot may go to veteran actor Robert Duvall (The Judge), though, truthfully, I didn’t think he did anything that new with the role. Tom Wilkinson (Selma) will probably be lost in the shuffle as Selma slips out of contention in many categories. Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) remains a strong possibility, but the late release of the film may work against him. Duvall will sneak in for the final spot.

Best Supporting Actress

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (WL N) (PP S) (TB S) (TL C)
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year (TL D)
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game (WL S) (PP S) (TB S) (TL N)
• Rene Russo – Nightcrawler (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
• Emma Stone – Birdman (WL C) (PP O/N) (TB D) (TL N)
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods (WL O) (TB N) (TL N)
• Tilda Swinton – Snowpiercer (PP D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Arquette, Knightley and Stone are sure things. The other two spots are surprisingly in flux. Meryl Streep, Tilda Swinton, Laura Dern and Jessica Chastain all have decent claims on those spots. It’s hard to bet against Meryl when she’s in anything remotely good, so I’m penciling her into the fourth spot over Jessica Chastain. The reason I’m not putting both in is because the BAFTA nominations lead me to believe the Nightcrawler is going to pull in the long overlooked Renee Russo for a career Oscar nomination. It could be a bad hunch, at which point it will almost certainly be Chastain, but putting Russo in there forced me to decide between Streep and Chastain and really, there isn’t much contest when you come to the Academy.
Peter J. Patrick: Swinton is a question mark, the others are fairly certain.
Tripp Burton: Patricia Arquette, Keira Knightley and Emma Stone are all as near-locked in as you can get, having appeared everywhere. Meryl Streep has the Golden Globe and SAG nominations, as well as the name recognition, that should make her a strong fourth entry in the race. For the fifth slot, Golden Globe nominee Jessica Chastain seems to be holding on, but her film is fading from memory; she may be replaced by Rene Russo, whose film is picking up the necessary momentum to give her recognition she’s never picked up in her long career.
Thomas LaTourrette: Golden Globe winning Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) will be nominated along with Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman) and Meryl Streep (Into the Woods). Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) looks likely to claim the fifth spot, even without a Golden Globe or SAG nomination. Potential spoilers are Laura Dern (Wild), Carmen Ejogo (Selma), or even Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer). However, I think Chastain will have wrapped up her third career nomination.

Best Original Screenplay

• Birdman (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Boyhood (WL S) (PP S) (TB S) (TL O)
• Calvary (PP F) [New]
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL O/D) (PP D) (TB O) (TL D)
• Mr. Turner (WL O) (TB O) (TL O/D)
• Nightcrawler (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: There are three locks. Birdman, Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel aren’t going anywhere. Nightcrawler‘s precursor performance gives it an edge for the fourth spot. Ultimately, the writer love Mike Leigh and even when he’s put out some questionable material, he’s gotten a nomination. This film is well respected, so I don’t see any reason why he could get that nomination over Selma, Foxcatcher and A Most Violent Year with Selma a strong possibility for jumping in if it does better with Oscar voters than with any other group.
Peter J. Patrick: Calvary is a long shot.
Tripp Burton: Three of the biggest Best Picture contenders are all eligible here, and there isn’t really a question of their nominations. The surging popularity of Nightcrawler, as well as WGA and BAFTA nominations, should get Dan Gilroy a nomination. That leaves a fifth slot: will it be WGA nominee Foxcatcher of perennial Oscar nominee Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner? I’m betting on Mr. Turner sneaking in.
Thomas LaTourrette: Birdman, Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel will undoubtedly be nominated. After that, the predictions get murky. Nightcrawler now seems like it may have enough support to get a nomination, not something I would have guessed even a month ago. The final spot would appear a battle between the ailing Selma and Mr. Turner. Mike Leigh is never one to rule out, and I wonder if Mr. Turner will have enough support to get him another nod here. Right now I would say that he may eke out the nomination. I am thinking Foxcatcher no longer has the support to get a nom here, so I will call it Mr. Turner by a nose.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• American Sniper (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
• Gone Girl (WL O) (PP O) (TB N) (TL O)
• The Imitation Game (WL N) (PP O/N) (TB N) (TL N)
• The Theory of Everything (WL N) (PP O)(TL N)
• Whiplash (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Wild (PP S/D) (TB O) (TL S)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Whiplash freed up a spot in Best Original Screenplay by mysteriously being considered adapted by the Academy. In the weaker Best Adapted Screenplay category, it becomes a sure nominee. Also certain are Gone Girl and The Imitation Game with The Theory of Everything placing a solid fourth. The fifth slot is open and could be delivered to the likes of Inherent Vice or Wild, but Clint Eastwood’s late-breaking American Sniper has built the kind of buzz that would make its exclusion a bit surprising.
Peter J. Patrick: Snowpiercer is a bit of a stretch.
Tripp Burton: n one of the weirder turns of the season, WGA and BAFTA Original Screenplay nominee Whiplash is eligible here for the Oscars, which should translate to an Oscar nod pretty easily. Gone Girl and the Imitation Game both have nominations from the WGA, BAFTA, USC and the Golden Globes, so the odds are greatly in their favor to repeat here. The other three WGA nominees are American Sniper, Guardians of the Galaxy and Wild, but there are only two remaining slots. I’m pretty certain that the Marvel film is out, and the other two films make up our roster.
Thomas LaTourrette: The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything and Gone Girl all appear likely to get noms. Choosing the fourth and fifth spots is much more difficult. The Academy’s move of Whiplash to the adapted screenplay category has made its nomination and the whole category’s final spots much more open. Inherent Vice and Into the Woods have both fans and detractors, and probably will not have enough support to get a nom. The same is be true for Unbroken, and even with the support for the Coen brothers, two of the four listed screenwriters, I don’t think it will pull off the nomination here. Wild at one point seemed a given to me here, but I am no longer certain. Now American Sniper is also a strong possibility. With two spots left to fill, I will choose Whiplash and Wild, though one or both could be supplanted by either Inherent Vice or American Sniper. This is a difficult category to choose.

Best Original Score

• Gone Girl (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (O) (PP O)
• The Imitation Game (F) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Interstellar (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• The Judge (TB O)
• The Theory of Everything (F) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Unbroken (O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: This is one of the toughest categories for me to predict. I think several of these are fairly solid picks, including The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything and Gone Girl. I think Alexandre Desplat will make a rare double appearance here with his score for The Grand Budapest Hotel and the fifth slot, I believe will go to Interstellar, which had gorgeous music even if poorly used. In reality, anything could make it through at this juncture.
Tripp Burton: Alexandre Desplat is having quite the year, and you have to imagine he will make it onto this list at least once. I have him down twice, for The Imitation Game and Unbroken, although he is just as likely to place for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Interstellar and The Theory of Everything should also factor in here, although most anything seems like it is game in a year with no real front-runners. For the fifth slot, I have Thomas Newman’s The Judge, but Gone Girl or the suddenly popular Nightcrawler are also contenders.
Thomas LaTourrette: The Imitation Game, Interstellar and The Theory of Everything all look likely to get nominations. Alexandre Desplat will probably get a second nomination for The Grand Budapest Hotel, rather than Unbroken. That probably leaves the final spot to Gone Girl. Both Birdman and The Homesman had fairly distinct sounding scores, but the first was ruled ineligible by the Academy and the second was seen by very few people, so it will likely end up out of competition. How to Train Your Dragon 2 seems too similar to its predecessor to pick up a nom here, but it was a rousing score. The Judge could off a nomination, but I think it will be passed over as well.

Best Original Song

• “Big Eyes” – Big Eyes (PP F) [New]
• “Everything Is Awesome” – The Lego Movie (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• “Glory” – Selma (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” – Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
• “The “Last Goodbye” – The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (TB F) [New]
• “Lost Stars” – Begin Again (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• “Mercy Is” – Noah (TL F) [New]
• “Miracles” – Unbroken (TL F) [New]
• “Something So Right” – Muppets Most Wanted (PP F) [New]
• “Split the Difference” – Boyhood (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: This is another tough one for me as there are so many titles that could show up, but which I don’t think will. The Academy’s harshly traditional music branch doesn’t seem to like inventiveness when it comes to original song, they mostly favor films about the creativity of making music. That’s why I put both “Lost Stars” and “Split the Difference” on the list. “Glory” seems perfect for this group and “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” will appeal to their nostalgia for retiring artist Glen Campbell. The fifth slot I’m assigning to “Everything Is Awesome” which also seems to be inevitable. There are too many others that I think are more inventive this year, but those are the most likely to earn the Academy’s attention in my opinion.
Tripp Burton: There is almost no way to predict this category, so these are just some stabs in the dark. Lost Stars, Selma and The LEGO Movie seem about as sure as you can be to place here (although that is still only maybe a 75% chance that they get a nomination). For the other two slots, I gambled a little that the music branches long love of The Hobbit might bring it a nomination, as well as a second nomination for Ethan Hawke for Boyhood. Anything can happen, though.
Thomas LaTourrette: The catchy Everything is Awesome is about the most memorable of any of these songs, though it is hard to picture it winning. It and Glory seem the most likely nominees. Lost Stars and Mercy Is are likely to join them. The song from Big Eyes, Mockingjay, The Hobbit or Unbroken could take the last spot. Even the song from the Glen Campbell documentary could be nominated. This is always a difficult category, made more so this year by a number of unexciting songs.

Best Editing

• American Sniper (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Birdman (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Boyhood (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Gone Girl (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (PP F) [New]
• The Imitation Game (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Nightcrawler (TL F) [New]
• Selma (PP F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Taking my cues from the American Cinema Editors, I stuck with flashy or complex editing jobs or films that have Best Picture hopes. Boyhood would normally be left off if it weren’t a Best Picture frontrunner, so I include it with a caveat that it could very easily be dropped in favor of something more flashy. Birdman is more subtle when you consider it’s a series of long takes put together (which isn’t really flashy), so I could picture it being ignored. Gone Girl has the time-hopping excitement that this group loves to honor and they also love fast-paced nail biters, so American Sniper seems a good bet. The Imitation Game isn’t very well edited, but it’s a Best Picture contender, so I’m going with it for my last slot. I could also see any other of the film’s my contributors have listed getting in instead, especially Nightcrawler, Selma and the adroit The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Tripp Burton: You need a Film Editing nomination to be in contention to win Best Picture, and it has been 3 years since we’ve had a non-Best Picture nominee in this category, so I have Boyhood and The Imitation Game down here for certain. The trickery of Birdman should also get it a nomination here. Kirk Baxter has won two Oscars for David Fincher films, so I can’t see him not getting on the list again for Gone Girl. In the fifth slot, American Sniper is picking up steam and the tension of the sniping scenes should cement it a slot. These five seem pretty cemented for me, but Selma, Nightcrawler, The Grand Budapest Hotel or Whiplash could be waiting in the wings.
Thomas LaTourrette: Birdman with seemingly no edits and Boyhood which has to have been one of the most difficult films ever to edit both will get nominations. One of those may go on to become the winner. The Imitation Game seems a likely choice. I also wonder if Whiplash will eke out a nomination here for all of its drum playing cuts. Both Selma and Interstellar seem to be slipping out of competition, especially as neither got an ACE nomination. This leaves ACE nominees American Sniper, Nightcrawler, Gone Girl and the surprising choice of Guardians of the Galaxy duking it out for the final spot. I would think that American Sniper would be the more likely choice, though Nightcrawler is probably high on the list. An outside possibility would be The Grand Budapest Hotel, but I will go with American Sniper.

Best Cinematography

• Birdman (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL D) (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• The Imitation Game (WL F) [New](TL F) [New]
• The Immigrant (TB F) [New]
• Interstellar (PP O/F)
• Mr. Turner (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Selma (PP D)
• Unbroken (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The American Society of Cinematographers usually know what they’re doing and the films they select frequently carry over. I would be surprised if Unbroken, Birdman and Mr. Turner didn’t make the list. I think the lush colors of The Grand Budapest Hotel will help it get the fourth slot and although Interstellar was a contender for the longest time (by the simple fact that Best Visual Effects and Best Cinematography have been inexplicably linked over the past few years), it couldn’t get an ASC nomination, but the less flashy and visually interesting The Imitation Game did, so I’m giving it my fifth slot.
Tripp Burton: This is looking like a fairly wide-open category this year, so most anything can happen. Birdman seems the safest bet, as does the always-nominated Roger Deakins for Unbroken. Mr. Turner has picked up both ASC and BAFTA nominations, despite being MIA other places, so it should also sneak in. My hunch is that the non-ASC nominated The Immigrant might round out the list, but a safer bet may be The Imitation Game.
Thomas LaTourrette: Birdman remains the prohibitive frontrunner and will easily score a nomination. Both Mr. Turner and Unbroken will likely join it as nomineesThey will give Lubezki some spirited competition, but I doubt either could win. The Imitation Game and The Grand Budapest Hotel stand the best chances of rounding out the category. Selma, Into the Woods, Nightcrawler, Gone Girl and The Theory of Everything will be possibilities, but probably will not make it to the final five.

Best Production Design

• Birdman (TL F) [New]
• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (TB F) [New]
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• The Imitation Game (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Interstellar (PP F) [New]
• Into the Woods (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Mr. Turner (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Selma (WL F) [New]
• Snowpiercer (PP F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The Grand Budapest Hotel is going to win all the marbles, so it cannot be left off. Mr. Turner is that period drama that the Academy’s art directors and costume designers love to get behind. Into the Woods is also a pretty safe bet. I think The Imitation Game will come in fourth with the fifth slot being a toss-up for me betwen Selma and Guardians of the Galaxy. Guardians is a colorful, luscious landscape, but it doesn’t have the societal importance of Selma. Although Ava DuVernay’s film didn’t show at the Art Directors Guild, it could still make a showing here. There’s also the possibility that Interstellar continues the trend of major CGI achievements qualifying for their production design.
Tripp Burton: BAFTA tends to line up nicely with AMPAS in this category, giving us 4 of the 5 nominees the last couple of years. This year, three of those should be pretty solid locks: Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game and Mr. Turner. When BAFTA doesn’t line up, it is usually because they are films that BAFTA likes more than AMPAS, and both Big Eyes and Interstellar seem like those candidates this year. Instead, I think the looming Hollywood sets of Into the Woods and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes will get in instead.
Thomas LaTourrette: Into the Woods, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game and Mr. Turner are the likeliest to score nominations. Selma, Interstellar and Unbroken earlier all seemed likely nominees, but as support for their films disappeared, so did their chances here. The Hobbit, Snowpiercer, The Theory of Everything, Maleficent or even Guardians of the Galaxy could make a play for the final spot, but I think it will go to the unconventional choice of Birdman. I am quite uncertain of that final guess, but I could picture it happening.

Best Costume Design

• Big Eyes (PP F) [New]
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• The Imitation Game (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Into the Woods (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Maleficent (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Mr. Turner (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]
• Selma (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Before it got left off the Costume Designers Guild list, Belle would have been the perfect costume drama to fill out the fifth slot on this ballot. The Grand Budapest Hotel, Into the Woods and Mr. Turner will double-up their Production Design nominations here. Selma probably will as well, but it’s a weak fifth place for me with The Imitation Game on far better footing from a time period only slightly prior to the Civil Rights drama.
Tripp Burton: This category looks to be made up of a handful of Best Picture nominees and two outsiders with some lavish costume work.
Thomas LaTourrette: As with Production Design, Into the Woods, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Mr. Turner are the likeliest to score nominations. Maleficent will likely join them. The fifth spot will probably go to The Imitation Game. One can never rule out period pieces like The Theory of Everything, Selma, Inherent Vice or Exodus, nor fantasy films like Guardians of the Galaxy or The Hobbit, but I will stick with the first five predictions.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Foxcatcher (PP F) [New]
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Guardians of the Galaxy (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Maleficent (TB F) [New]
• The Theory of Everything (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Guardians of the Galaxy should have this one in the bag. The Theory of Everything seems like just the kind of film the Academy throws a head-scratcher nomination towards. I’ve been waffling on this one, thinking Maleficent might have taken the third spot, but the more I think about it, the more I believe The Grand Budapest Hotel cooky coifs and Tilda Swinton’s copious wrinkles among other things will get it into the final competition.
Tripp Burton: With Into the Woods and The Hobbit left off of the short-list for nomination, this category is looking a little bit like a free for all. The large amounts of fantasy make-up in Guardians of the Galaxy and Maleficent should get them a nomination here, while for the third slot it is a toss-up. I’m betting on the momentum and popularity of The Grand Budapest Hotel to levy it into a nomination.
Thomas LaTourrette: The Academy threw a wrench into the predictions when their short list left out films like The Hobbit and Into the Woods which had seemed likely nominees. Of the remaining films, I would say that only Noah and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 stand no chance of making the cut. That leaves the contemporary Foxcatcher and The Theory of Everything battling it out with fantasy Guardians of the Galaxy and Maleficent, with The Grand Budapest Hotel somewhere in between battling it out for three spots. Cases could be made for any of those five films, though I would think Foxcatcher was the weakest of them, as all people remember of that one is Steve Carell’s nose as John DuPont, though many prognosticators think it could win. I think that Guardians of the Galaxy and The Grand Budapest Hotel will both secure nominations, with perhaps The Theory of Everything taking the final spot. This is a category I just don’t know how it will go.

Best Sound Mixing

• American Sniper (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
• Fury (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]
• Guardians of the Galaxy (WL F) [New]
• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (TB F) [New]
• The Imitation Game (WL F) [New]
• Interstellar (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]
• Into the Woods (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Lucy (TB F) [New]
• Transformers: Age of Extinction (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Unbroken (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Loud doesn’t seem to be a important this year, but war films and musicals are among the Academy’s favorites. American Sniper and Into the Woods seem like perfect nominees. Many people seem to forget what an important aspect of Guardians of the Galaxy its sound mix was, from the groovy soundtrack to the bountiful soundscapes, I would be surprised if it didn’t get nominated. The Imitation Game earns a spot for it heavy use of music and the loud, complicated sound of “Christopher.” Interstellar should easily round out the list. If there’s a film to get dropped, I think American Sniper or The Imitation Game might be left off for any one of a number of other films.
Tripp Burton: War films, musicals and tentpole explosions always do well in this category, but they also like those non-explosive action films in this category that can sometimes sneak in. I’m betting Lucy becomes a complete surprise nominee.
Thomas LaTourrette: Musicals and war films do well in this category, so I would picture Into the Woods, Fury, Transformers: Age of Extinction and Unbroken all pulling off nominations. This may be one of the few places Interstellar could pull off a nom, though it will face serious competition from American Sniper, Whiplash, Get on Up and The Hobbit.

Best Sound Editing

• American Sniper (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (TB F) [New]
• Fury (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Godzilla (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Guardians of the Galaxy (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
• Interstellar (WL F) [New](TL F) [New]
• Into the Woods (PP F) [New]
• The Lego Movie (TB F) [New]
• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (WL F) [New]
• Transformers: Age of Extinction (WL F) [New]
• Unbroken (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: War films (or least those set in war torn places) have always done well here. Write in American Sniper as a result. Interstellar and Guardians of the Galaxy are the big budget contenders most likely to make it on the list while bombastic is not beyond their interest, giving Transformers a good possibility of making it in. The fourth spot will probably go to The Hobbit, but both it and Transformers could easily be replaced.
Tripp Burton: A couple of war movies, a couple of big summer action films and a well-regarded, action packed animated film. Seems like a solid line-up to me.
Thomas LaTourrette: War films also do well here, so I think Fury, Unbroken and American Sniper may pull off nominations. I will add Interstellar and Godzilla to round out the five nominees, with Transformers: Age of Extinction being the most likely spoiler, followed by Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Into the Woods and The Hobbit.

Best Visual Effects

• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Godzilla (PP O) (TB O) (TL N)
• Guardians of the Galaxy (WL O) (PP N) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Interstellar (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Maleficent (PP F) [New]
• Transformers: Age of Extinction (WL D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: There are four films that I would be shocked if they were absent: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy, The Hobbit and Interstellar. I’m tentatively giving the fifth spot to Transformers, but it would be nice to see the hectic, overbearing effects of that franchise left off in favor of something more interesting, such as the work in Godzilla or, in my personal preference, to X-Men: Days of Future Past.
Tripp Burton: Looking at the shortlist, these five seem like an almost certain line-up: critically regarded, visual effects filled films that did very well at the box office. Plus, the other five all feel like also-rans. I don’t see this changing.
Thomas LaTourrette: Interstellar and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes are assured nominations. I expect Godzilla, The Hobbit and Guardians of the Galaxy to join them. Transformers: Age of Extinction might knock one of them out of contention, with X-Men and Maleficent seeming much more distant possibilities.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Force Majeure – Sweden (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Ida – Poland (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Leviathan – Russia (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Tangerines – Estonia (TB O)
• Timbuktu – Mauritania (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Wild Tales – Argentina (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Now we’re getting into the categories where I’m not as astute. These last five categories give me trouble. Best Foreign Language Film is probably the easiest a they have such a small pool to choose from. I would be flabbergasted if Force Majeure, Ida or Leviathan didn’t make the list. The last two spots I’m not the least bit confident in predicting and I could be entirely wrong, but I’ve gone with Timbuktu and Wild Tales, neither of which would I be surprised not to see Thursday morning.
Tripp Burton: This category always has a lot of fun surprises come nominations morning. The three biggest foreign films of the year, awards wise, are all shortlisted: Ida, Leviathan and Force Majeure. I’m guessing one of them won’t make it, and will guess Leviathan. As for the others, these are guesses more than anything, although Timbuktu got great Cannes reviews and the other two all have a lot of supporters.
Thomas LaTourrette: Ida, Force Majeure and the Golden Globe winning Leviathan all pretty much guaranteed nominations. Wild Tales seems likely to join them. Timbuktu will likely round out the list, with Tangerines the potential spoiler.

Best Documentary Feature

• The Case Against 8 (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]
• Citizenfour (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Finding Vivian Maier (WL F) [New]
• Jodorowsky’s Dune (PP F) [New]
• Keep On Keepin’ On (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]
• The Last Days in Vietnam (TB F) [New]
• Life Itself (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• The Overnighters (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• The Salt of the Earth (TB F) [New]
• Virunga (WL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Citizenfour is the only lock in my opinion. I’m also not as confident about Life Itself‘s chances as many others are and I wouldn’t be astounded if it were ignored. The rest of the choices are mostly guesses, though Finding Vivian Maier and The Overnighters have both gotten plenty of attention from precursors, including BAFTA.
Tripp Burton: The changes in voting in this category the last couple of years have really changed the films that get in, mostly for the positive. Citizenfour and Life Itself may well have been outsiders a few years ago, but both popular films are almost certain to get on the ballot. The Last Days in Vietnam and The Overnighters both seem like the sorts of films that regularly get nominated for the Oscar, while critical favorite The Salt of the Earth may also get a nomination.
Thomas LaTourrette: Citizenfour and Life Itself will assuredly get nominations. Keep On Keepin’ On, The Case Against 8 and The Overnighters seem the most likely to join them.

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Joanna (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Kehinde Wiley: An Economy of Grace (WL F) [New]
• The Lion’s Mouth Opens (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• One Child (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]
• Our Curse (WL F) [New](TL F) [New]
• The Reaper (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]
• White Earth (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Based solely on descriptions, these are my selections. I have no doubt some of them will make the list, but I have no confidence either way.
Thomas LaTourrette: No commentary, I don’t know enough to have anything to say here yet.

Best Animated Short Film

• The Bigger Picture (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Coda (TL F) [New]
• The Dam Keeper (PP F) [New]
• Duet (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]
• Feast (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Me and My Moulton (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• The Numberlys (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
• The Single Life (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
• Symphony No. 42 (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: There is only one short film on this list that I recall seeing and it’s also the one I can see sweeping the prizes. Apart from Feast, everything else is a guess based on descriptions of premise and artistic style, both major factors in the selections in this category.
Thomas LaTourrette: I mostly went with the Annie nominations for short film, though I did put in the one BAFTA nominee.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Aya (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]
• Baghdad Messi (WL F) [New] (TB F) [New]
• Boogaloo and Graham (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Carry On (PP F) [New](TL F) [New]
• My Father’s Truck (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New]
• Parvaneh (TB F) [New]
• The Phone Call (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]
• Summer Vacation (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: You’ve got me. The Phone Call is the only one I would be surprised didn’t get nominated. Everything else is a toss up.
Thomas LaTourrette: No commentary, I don’t know enough to have anything to say here yet.