August 3, 2012

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “A franchise like this tends to slowly diminish over time and after the second film failed to meet the original’s box office tally, a third go-round will probably share the same fate.”
Box Office Results: $49.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Is this the end of Diary of a Wimpy Kid? Maybe. If there’s a sequel, then we’re probably going to need a major dud to kill it.

Total Recall

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Perhaps nominations for Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing or Visual Effects, but I’m leaning towards none at this juncture.”
Oscar Results: A poor performance with critics and audiences meant the film just didn’t have what it took.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The original made $119 million at the box office. The sequel may have some initial interest but it will have to be damned special to make much more than my prediction. Even at his peak, Colin Farrell is no Arnold Schwarzeneggar in his prime.”
Box Office Results: $58.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Not only was it not special enough, it wasn’t interesting enough for audiences who largely rejected the film, possibly due in part to the drubbing the film received by critics.

360

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Being released in August is a bad sign. It has the pedigree of an Oscar contender, but the release window of a dud.”
Oscar Results: And dud it was. Critics gave it a thumbs-down and audiences didn’t care.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Very little buzz has built around this film, which is how The Constant Gardener managed to make so much at the box office ($33 million). I don’t expect much out of this Meirelles film.”
Box Office Results: $100.3 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] For a film with such a high wattage cast, a $100,000 box office total is insulting.

August 10, 2012

The Bourne Legacy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The franchise has done decently in the tech categories at the Oscars, so it may still be an Editing, Sound Mixing and/or Sound Editing contender, but I’m dubious.”
Oscar Results: With little vestage remaining from the prior film, it should come as little surprise that the film didn’t become an Oscar competitor in any meaningful way.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “With the franchise starting over, seemingly from scratch, it’s hard to say if the film will build on its predecessor or return to the box office performance of the original. They moved the film back a week to avoid direct competition, but that suggests it’s not going to do as well as they think otherwise.”
Box Office Results: $113.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For a reboot without star Matt Damon, this tally is quite good. No one should have expected it to reach its predecessors level as reboots seldom do.

The Campaign

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “When Will Ferrell goes at the box office alone, the results are poor. When he hits audiences with a team-up, he does much better. Although Zach Galifianakis isn’t the best partner for the box office, I suspect the dearth of comedies may give it a shot.”
Box Office Results: $86.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It wasn’t quite the result many had hoped, but earning over $85 million isn’t a failure, especially for a film that didn’t look that great to begin with.

Hope Springs

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “There will be talk. There always is when Meryl Streep’s involved. Yet, getting the August release doesn’t bode well for the film in general. I think Streep will be discussed, but her recent win accompanied by the heavy list of potential contenders this year will keep her out of the race along with the entirety of her film.”
Oscar Results: There wasn’t as much talk as I expected thanks largely to the huge bounty of strong female performances this year. Strangely, Tommy Lee Jones seemed to get more Oscar consideration for his performance than Streep did.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It just doesn’t sound like a sleeper hit, but with Meryl Streep as part of the cast, it could do quite well. Matter of fact, when Streep looks like she’s having fun, her films tend to do surprisingly well at the box office, so I’m guessing this could be another case for her success.”
Box Office Results: $63.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It was certainly no sleeper hit and this result suggests that all things Meryl aren’t all thing successful.

August 15 & 17, 2012

The Odd Life of Timothy Green

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “An odd title, an odd release window and a kid-friendly film may not seem like big possibilities and that’s why it’s opening two days early to avoid competing entirely against ParaNorman, which is likely to do better overall. A modest result could occur, but I’m guessing I’m a bit high in my prediction.”
Box Office Results: $51.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Althought it exceeded my expectations, the film didn’t manage to break out as so many family-centered projects do. Of course, this further proves that the Disney brand can’t sell everything.

The Expendables 2

Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Old and crusty action stars have a marketplace these days and this sequel to a highly popular film should have no problem doing good business at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $85.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] After the surprise success of its predecessor, many thought the new Expendables film could add other stars and become a bigger hit. Lightning didn’t quite strike twice, but the tally may still be enough to encourage a threequel.

ParaNorman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Coraline scored an Oscar nomination and I am fairly certain this one will be a contender for Best Animated Feature. Other categories might not be so easy to obtain.”
Oscar Results: It was nominated for Best Animated Feature and remains a contender, but its popularity seems to have waned and other films seem poised to take the prize this year.
Box Office Prediction: $125 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Advertising has been better for this film as opposed to Coraline and I can imagine the success of Coraline bolstering this film’s chances. With very little family competition in this part of the year and no animation competition, I think it will be quite successful.”
Box Office Results: $56.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Part of the reason the film hasn’t done better in the Oscar race is that it wasn’t seen by as many people as most of the other contenders. This tally is rather unfortunate for a film wish such familial flair.

Sparkle

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “There will be talk of a posthumous Oscar nod for Whitney Houston in Best Supporting Actress, but my guess is the original song she sings in the film will be nominated, though with R. Kelly as an Oscar nominee and not Houston.”
Oscar Results: The reviews and the box office assured this one wouldn’t be an Oscar contender at all.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Apart from the initial curiosity over this being Whitney Huston’s last film, I don’t really see it being much of a success. Advertising has been limited and curiosity can only help so much.”
Box Office Results: $24.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Not even morbidity could sell this Dreamgirls knock-off.

August 24, 2012

The Apparition

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “It’s been a few months since we had a significant horror outing, so it’s likely to do well in the lead-up to Halloween, but it’s not the only generic-looking horror flick coming out in the next couple of months, so it could just as easily be a dud.”
Box Office Results: $4.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It just goes to show that not all things supernatural get a bump from audiences. The lack of originality and not being about demonic possession and exorcism probably didn’t help.

Hit & Run

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The premise is rather outlandish and the advertising hasn’t ramped up yet. I think it may end up being a popular, if unsuccessful film.”
Box Office Results: $13.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] There wasn’t much to bolster this film’s chances, though a tally this low is somewhat surprising. Even the most bland action films perform better than this. Of course, being quirky isn’t always a strong selling point.

Premium Rush

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The film has to not only be a modest hit at the box office, but a hit with critics to be considered an Oscar contender. Releasing in August doesn’t give one much confidence.”
Oscar Results: Neither positive reviews nor sizable box office materialized for this film, making it it one of the easier movies to ignore this year.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “David Koepp has written more successful films thanhe’s directed. This concept seems so unusual that it’s more likely to confuse and keep away audience members than draw them in. If it’s good enough, word of mouth will draw people to the theater, but I’m not sure that’s going to help much.”
Box Office Results: $20.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It did about what I expected even with the recognizable Joseph Gordon-Levitt in the lead. The concept may just have been too unusual to sell, though Phone Booth did better than this, so I’m a bit stymied.

August 29 & 31, 2012

Lawless

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Early word out of festivals is that it’s pretty good. The trailer doesn’t confirm that and releasing in August seems like a bad move for an Oscar contender. It could still compete, but something doesn’t sit right with me about all of this.”
Oscar Results: Early word from the festivals was wrong. After more critics saw the film, its positive word of mouth became negative rather quickly. The movie disappointed critics and then was ignored by audiences. Not a sign of an Oscar contender.
Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “In spite of the relatively well known names in the cast, this period gangster-style film doesn’t feel like the kind of movie that ignites the box office. The closest recent example is Public Enemies, which tallied just under $100 million. That’s with the far more popular Johnny Depp as the top draw and about a much more famous central character: John Dillinger.”
Box Office Results: $37.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] You just can’t turn every tale of bootlegging into a box office hit, especially without undeniable box office draws. Shia LaBeouf may be able to sell teen-friendly films to teen-friendly audiences, but this was an adult-friendly subject and clearly he can’t sell that.

The Possession

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Another supernatural horror flick and this one uses the surprisingly popular possession element to make it a more likely success than The Apparition two weeks earlier.”
Box Office Results: $49.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] And here we have proof that possession stories sell even if the films look entirely predictable.