Only one of the twelve categories presented by the Visual Effects Society will have any bearing on Oscar, but the strength of a film’s performance here often indicates the strength of its chances with Oscar. The VES will present its awards on tonight (Tuesday), though I probably won’t get the results until tomorrow morning.

VISUAL EFFECTS SOCIETY AWARDS

Best Visual Effects in an Effects-Driven Film

The Avengers (RU:Tripp)
Battleship
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter)
Life of Pi (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Prometheus

Wesley Lovell: Life of Pi doesn’t need this award to take the Oscar, but The Hobbit does. When The Hobbit was originally announced, the expectation was that it would be a strong competitor for Best Visual Effects. After all, it’s the only category that the original trilogy won every year out. However, Life of Pi‘s popularity and The Hobbit critical drubbing shifted the sure-bet to also-ran. Now, I’d be surprised if it wins much of anything tonight, even though I’ve predicted it in a number of categories.

Best Supporting Visual Effects

Argo (RU:Wesley)
Flight (RU:Tripp)
The Impossible (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Rust and Bone
Zero Dark Thirty (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: One of the most talked about sequences of the year was the tsunami that opened The Impossible. Most say it was better than the one in Hereafter, which went on to win the VES award in this same category. The difference is that Impossible isn’t nominated for the Oscar but Hereafter was. That being said, The Impossible is probably the most showy of the films nominated here. Of course, VES voters could name Argo regardless of how insignificant the VFX work was in the film, simply to crown a possible Best Picture contender.

Best Animation in an Animated Feature

Brave (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / Tripp)
Hotel Transylvania
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians (RU:Tripp)
Wreck-It Ralph (Wesley / Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The difference between this award and Best Animated Feature is little. Yet, I think Wreck-It Ralph has a very strong hand, considering the boatloads of heavy effects sequences in Wreck-It Ralph, most notably the swarms that plague the film’s protagonists. And creating four or five distinct video game worlds may also help.

Best Animated Character in a Live Action Film

The Avengers – The Hulk
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – Goblin King(RU:Peter)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – Gollum (Wesley)
Life of Pi – Richard Parker (Peter / RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Gollum has a long history in this category and if there’s one category I would be surprised he wasn’t leading the pack, it’s this one. Yet, I can’t help feeling that Richard Parker may triumph. We’ve seen Gollum many times before and there’s not a lot new with him, but the realistic style of Richard in Life of Pi could mean its victory.

Best Animated Character in an Animation Film

Brave – Argument (Peter / RU:Wesley)
Hotel Transylvania – Dracula
The Pirates: Band of Misfits (Wesley)
Wreck-It Ralph – Vanellope (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: When it comes to honoring an entire film of characters and one single character, I think the tendency will be towards recognizing the multiple. Perhaps I’m being a bit naive about this one, but I think The Pirates could win. Yet, Brave and Wreck-It Ralph may also have strong chances.

Best Created Environment in a Live Action Film

The Avengers – Midtown Manhattan
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – Goblin Caverns (Wesley / RU:Peter)
Life of Pi – Open Ocean (Peter / RU:Wesley)
Prometheus – LV-233

Wesley Lovell: The open ocean is a nifty effect, but so expansive that it might not be enough. I give the edge to the vividly detailed environment of the Gobling Caverns. Of course, anything can happen with this one.

Best Created Environment in an Animated Feature

Brave – The Forest (Peter / RU:Wesley)
ParaNorman – Graveyard (RU:Peter)
ParaNorman – Main Street
Rise of the Guardians – The North Pole (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: The North Pole in Rise of the Guardians is the most diverse of all of these, which may give it the edge. Stop-motion animation doesn’t seem like the kind of thing the VES tends to recognize, which could mean that Brave stands a good shot of winning as well.

Best Models

The Avengers – Helicarrier (RU:Peter)
The Impossible – Orchid Hotel (Wesley / Peter)
Men in Black 3 – Cape Canaveral / Apollo Launch
The Dark Knight Rises – Airplane Heist (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: This might be the only place for the VES to recognize The Dark Knight Rises, but The Impossible is the more detailed of all of these designs…and it gets destroyed.

Best Compositing

The Avengers – Hulk Punch
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter)
Life of Pi – Storm God (Wesley / Peter)
Prometheus – Engineers & The Orrery

Wesley Lovell: I’ve never been sure of what compositing is, but Life of Pi needs more than one or two awards from this group, so I’ll give it the edge here.

Best Virtual Cinematography in a Live Action Film

The Amazing Spider-Man (RU:Peter)
The Avengers – Downtown Manhattan (RU:Wesley)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Wesley / Peter)
Total Recall – Hover Car Chase

Wesley Lovell: I’m going with the film that seems to have the most nominations and the most varied and interesting cinematography.

Best FX and Simulation Animation in an Live Action Film

Battleship
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (RU:Wesley)
Life of Pi – Ocean (RU:Peter)
Life of Pi – Storm of God (Wesley / Peter)

Wesley Lovell: I see another battle between Pi and The Hobbit with another win for Pi.

Best FX and Simulation Animation in an Animated Feature

Brave (Peter / RU:Wesley)
ParaNorman – Practical Volumetrics
ParaNorman – Angry Aggie Ink-Blot Electricity
Rise of the Guardians – Last Stand (Wesley / RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: In the end, Rise of the Guardians hs a lot more action than the others.