July 1-3, 2011

Larry Crowne

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts seem a potent combination and could propel a higher box office than even I project. The film does look like a crowd pleaser even if Hanks hasn’t had a live action hit in awhile.”
Box Office Results: $35.6 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] With that kind of star power, a $35 million total is abysmal. Despite being the kind of films audiences typically eat up, the Tom Hanks/Julia Roberts starrer proved that neither is the bankable star they once were.

Monte Carlo

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I wouldn’t expect another tween girls-targeted comedy to perform too well at the box office especially when the secondary fanbase, adult women, will be looking to Larry Crowne for fun instead.”
Box Office Results: $23.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] For a tween-targeted film, this total isn’t awful. I’m sure studio bosses would have preferred more, but this should give them pause the next time they target a demo that doesn’t go to the movies nearly as much as they want.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Technical categories only including Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.”
Oscar Results: It still has chances at nominations in the tech categories, especially Visual Effects which are now easier to see in the slow-motion frames, but wins are unlikely.
Box Office Prediction: $450 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Even the poorly reviewed second film topped the $400 million mark. I have little reason to expect this one won’t do the same…unless everyone was turned off by the second.”
Box Office Results: $352.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] After the financially successful, but audience-disappointing second film, Michael Bay couldn’t pull a larger audience to a film that was admittedly better than part two.

July 8-10, 2011

Horrible Bosses

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mixed. This is the kind of movie that, if done well, could be a sleeper hit. However, I expect that it will likely fade quickly.”
Box Office Results: $117.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] I’ll admit that even though I suggested it could be a sleeper hit, I had no idea it would do this well, earning some of the top numbers of the year for comedy and making me re-think every buddy comedy released later in the year.

Zookeeper

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. While it’s likely to be the number one new film of the weekend, Transformers will eat it alive. It may eke out a modest result, but I expect it’s rather idiotic appearance will doom it to a lackluster overall performance.”
Box Office Results: $79.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Despite having a weak market for idiotic family comedies, the film still managed to do satisfactory if unexceptional business.

July 15-17, 2011

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Being the final film, it’s possible the film will find a lot of support in the Academy in many different categories.”
Oscar Results: Not only is it likely to compete in its traditional categories, it could pick up a few unexpected nominations in other fields.
Box Office Prediction: $350 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The final film in the saga is bound to out-gross all that came before it, but since it won’t get high enough to surpass Transformers’ final total. Regardless, this film is going to be heavily front-loaded, but may do well as everyone who enjoyed the series slowly makes their way to see it in the theaters. The big question mark is whether 3D ticket sales will boost it to $400 M, which is possible.”
Box Office Results: $379.3 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] When looking at the past films in the franchise, I wasn’t quite sure this would be able to top Transformers to become the year’s top film, but it did. These numbers are the best the series has seen in some time.

Winnie the Pooh

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Depending on how many animated films enter the race and how strong the competition is, Disney could rep another Pixar/Disney pairing in the Animated Feature race.”
Oscar Results: With a dismal box office, the film needs a five-strong field to be able to compete for a nomination at this point.
Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. While it’s not going to be able to hold a candle to the weekend’s other juggernaut, the latest hand-drawn Disney animated effort should do good business, especially among fans of the little honey-loving ursine.”
Box Office Results: $26.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Despite the overwhelming popularity of the yellow-orange, honey-loving bear, the film did atrocious box office business.

July 22-24, 2011

Captain America: The First Avengers

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It’s not likely to feature in too many categories, but Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are solid bets.”
Oscar Results: Add Art Direction and Costume Design to the mix of categories the film could conceivably compete in.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The blatant patriotism paired with the superhero genre should prove a potent combination for this film.”
Box Office Results: $175.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it didn’t do as well as Iron Man, these numbers are still quite good.

Friends with Benefits

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mixed. Will Gluck saw success with his film Easy A last year, but will Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis be able to draw an audience. The jury is still out on that one and may be until critics have their say.”
Box Office Results: $55.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Timberlake and Kunis didn’t draw too many to their film even though the final tally, just short of $56 million, is fairly standard for a minor film of this genre.

July 29-31, 2011

Cowboys & Aliens

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Mostly tech categories with Art Direction and Costume Design more possible than other summer films.”
Oscar Results: This critically maligned film may still have chances at nominations in several creative categories, I think it’s potential is diminishing by the second.
Box Office Prediction: $125 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. This is the kind of film that either sinks or swims at the box office. Jon Favreau knows how to please an audience, so it will probably do good business, but we must always remember Jonah Hex. The good news for Universal is that they’ve done a better job advertising Cowboys & Aliens than Warners did with Hex.”
Box Office Results: $99.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Finishing just shy of $100 million is not the result the producers were hoping, especially coming from the hit director of the Iron Man films. Apparently, the mixed genre aspect didn’t appeal to fans of the individual fields.

Crazy, Stupid, Love.

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None”
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mixed. It looks like the kind of film that could do solid business. It’s not a broad comedy, so its subdued nature may make it harder to sell, but I expect it to do decently well.”
Box Office Results: $82.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] An ensemble romantic comedy without any stratospheric names wasn’t likely to do well and Steve Carell is hardly a box office draw, but the film did quite well considering its obstacles.

The Smurfs

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Visual Effects is possible, but so few live action/animated blends have done well at the Oscars, that you shouldn’t even really consider it.”
Oscar Results: Despite being a box office success story, the film’s chances with the Academy are almost nil and I’m surprised I didn’t put “None” down at this point.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mixed. Curiosity may drive a lot of this film’s business, but hokeyness may doom it. The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle didn’t do well, but Inspector Gadget did, so I imagine something on the Gadget side of the box office will occur.”
Box Office Results: $138.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] I expected it to do well with family audiences, but not this well. What’s more staggering is that the film is doing astronomically well overseas.