It’s the one season most people who visit my site look forward to. Oscar season carries with it all sorts of hurdles, the least of which is the box office. Dumped into December despite evidence suggesting last-minute plays don’t help much anymore, these films have a surprising number of potential box office hits among them. Join me in looking through December’s embarrassment of riches and see what my impressions of the month are.

December 2-4, 2011

Shame

Premise: A lothario finds his sex addiction inhibited when his sister arrives for an indefinite stay.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Those curious about the NC-17 rating will be drawn to the picture while Oscar-based enthusiasm will give it an extra boost, but don’t expect too much.
Oscar Prospects: Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan have been receiving strong praise for their performances in this film. While the film isn’t likely to see the Oscars otherwise, I expect both Fassbender and Mulligan to be contenders in the next couple of months, at least for nominations.

Sleeping Beauty

Premise: A young woman, making money on the side, finds herself drawn into a dark world where strangers pay her to drug her and sleep with her unconscious body.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: It doesn’t have the buzz of Shame, so look for a much lower outcome.
Oscar Prospects: The dark subject matter will be overshadowed by this weekend’s other sexual drama Shame, so too would I imagine the film’s fate with Oscar voters.

December 9-11, 2011

New Year’s Eve

Premise: An ensemble romantic comedy about several New Yorkers and their relationship struggles heading into New Year’s Eve.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Its forebear was a surprise hit and I expect with the holiday season goosing its numbers, it should have no problem surpassing Valentine’s Day.
Oscar Prospects: Garry Marshall hasn’t been an Oscar figure in over 20 years (and then only marginally). I don’t expect a film that looks so similar to his previous all-star romantic comedy Valentine’s Day to suddenly change the course for him.

The Sitter

Premise: A suspended college student is asked to babysit his neighbor’s children, but with many circumstances playing against his success.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: It will be overshadowed by the weekend’s other crowd-pleaser, leading this film to suffer a similar fate to all the late-year R-rated comedies that have failed to ignite box office fires.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Premise: During the Cold War one of MI-6’s top spies is brought out of retirement to uncover the identity of a Soviet agent hidden in the upper echelons of MI-6.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: With good word of mouth, a well recognized lead and its espionage thriller elements, the film should prove to be a solid hit.
Oscar Prospects: Although the film is set up as a conventional spy thriller, the production has earned strong notices when mounted in the past, including various awards nominations. There is talk building around Gary Oldman receiving a career achievement nomination, breaking the long dry spell he’s suffered through with the Academy. Likewise, the film, helmed by Let the Right One In‘s Tomas Alfredson could compete in multiple categories if the competition this year is light. Otherwise, look for Oldman’s name to be bandied about heavily through most of Oscar season.

W.E.

Premise: Two romantic entanglements set against each other as a historical relationship (Edward VIII and Wallis Simpson) is compared with that of a married woman and a Russian security guard.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: Those curious to take in Madonna’s film will give it an initial burst of energy, but the bad word of mouth with cause that sensation to quickly fade.
Oscar Prospects: Madonna’s directorial debut has gotten a drubbing from critics who’ve seen it. Don’t count on this film to be in Oscar’s playbook.

We Need to Talk About Kevin

Premise: The relationship between a mother and son has never been more strained when neither individual believes the other likes them very much.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Based on Tilda Swinton track record, I wouldn’t expect much from this film at the box office, though a handful of end-of-year critics awards could turn give it a nice underdog vibe.
Oscar Prospects: Buzz surrounding Tilda Swinton’s performance is strong and the film might pick up a screenwriting nomination; however, this could be another in a long line of Swinton films that the Academy never gives a second thought to.

Young Adult

Premise: Hoping to win back an old flame, a vain aging woman tries her best to break apart him and his fiancée as their wedding day approaches.
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Expectations: His last two films have been box office successes, so look for that streak to continue with alongside Juno scribe Diablo Cody.
Oscar Prospects: Like Stephen Daldry, Jason Reitman has been doing good business with the Academy. However, his vanity may be hurting him with Oscar voters. His screenplay for Up in the Air, which dominated critics groups fizzled at the Oscars. Still, the buzz is still good so far and Charlize Theron is in the hunt for Best Actress.

December 16-18, 2011

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

Premise: Alvin, Simon, Theodore and the Chipettes find themselves shipwrecked on a deserted isle.
Box Office Prospects: $220 M
Expectations: Both prior films have made just between $215 M and $220 M, so with box office ticket prices on the increase, I expect it to slightly outdo its predecessors.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Carnage

Premise: Two couples, meeting to discuss an altercation between their sons turns into an argument over whose child and whose parenting inability caused the whole mess.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Unless the film is an Oscar magnet, which is looking less likely by the day, the film will likely end up on the low side of modern Polanski films.
Oscar Prospects: Roman Polanski has had a surge in popularity with the Academy in recent years, but buzz hasn’t built around the film as I had expected it to. Strong notices from critics and a nice box office total might re-launch it into the campaign.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Premise: Professor Moriarty seeks to destroy Sherlock Holmes and only Holmes and his trusted associate Dr. Watson can stop him.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: The first film was a big hit, but this time Sherlock and friends have an originality hurdle to overcome as well as an over-stuffed box office to contend with. It will still do quite well based on goodwill from the first film, but anything above $200 million at this point would look like a miracle.
Oscar Prospects: The first film did solidly with the Academy, which means the sequel may as well, though too much of the same won’t help it. Look for consideration in Original Score, Art Direction, Costume Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

December 21-23, 2011

The Adventures of Tintin

Premise: A young boy, his dog and a sea captain are in search of sunken treasure aboard a ship the captain once commanded.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Expectations: Just give the people the name Steven Spielberg and you’re likely to have a hit. Grossing north of $200 million is not uncommon for Spielberg and most of his box office friendly films have done at least that. So, look for some quite high totals even if most American audiences don’t know who Tintin is.
Oscar Prospects: Steven Spielberg and Peter Jackson have an embarrassing number of Oscars and nominations to their credits, so this one should pick up a handful, but with Spielberg’s War Horse in play, Tintin may be limited to Animated Feature and a few tech categories.

The Darkest Hour

Premise: A group of young adults, in Russia when a mass alien invasion occurs struggle to survive against an invisible foe.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: With little to no advertising so far and launching at a time when families are more strongly represented at the cineplex, I don’t think the film will do much business.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Premise: A young boy tries to hold on to his father’s spirit after his death in the collapse of the World Trade Center on 9/11.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: There is no reason to believe that this 9/11-based film will sell to American audiences who have rejected most films on the subject, but Stephen Daldry appeals to a wide audience in ways his box office numbers belie. Look for it to perform slightly above his prior films’ totals, but not far unless it becomes a breakout hit.
Oscar Prospects: Stephen Daldry’s record is unimpeachable and the emotional nature of the film will likely appeal to Oscar voters. While critics may or may not love it, a solid box office performance will undeniably help.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Premise: An adaptation of the Swedish novel about a murder mystery that only a brash criminal profiler can solve.
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Expectations: All of his films have finished over $40 million at the box office and four of David Fincher’s features have come close to or surpassed the $100 M mark. Mix in those statistics with a rabid fanbase for the source novel and you have a potential hit on your hands.
Oscar Prospects: David Fincher has gone from Oscar pariah to Oscar mainstay with his last two films earning Best Picture nominations. Good will from his loss for The Social Network can be paired with strong critic’s notices to catapult it into contention, but critics must fall in love with it as audiences are already pre-inclined to do so.

In the Land of Blood and Honey

Premise: A Bosian woman is held captive by a band of Serbian fighters. Among them is a man who might have formed a relationship with her were circumstances different.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: In a sea of family-friendly films and unknown critical appeal, a simple total may be the best result it can hope for. The numbers will probably double if it earns an Oscar nomination.
Oscar Prospects: Angelina Jolie’s directorial debut is supposed to be rather impressive and buzz is starting to build for lead actress Zana Marjanovic, but the Best Actress field is heavily dominated by prominent names this year, so a nomination is longshot at this point.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol

Premise: Attempting to clear their names after a deadly explosion, Ethan Hunt and his team seek answers while avoiding capture.
Box Office Prospects: $140 M
Expectations: It’s been five years since the last Mission: Impossible film and that last long break may have been what doomed the third chapter to smaller numbers. Still, it should still do adequately well, though the intense amount of competition at the box office may strangle some of those prospects.
Oscar Prospects: Outside of a few technical categories (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects), the film has no chance and even those categories don’t seem to be leaning in the film’s direction.

War Horse

Premise: The bond between a young man and his horse is tested as World War I threatens to separate them.
Box Office Prospects: $180 M
Expectations: Two Spielberg film’s releasing on the same weekend? How exactly can a director cannibalize his own features. Can both be a success? Only Spielberg could do it and I expect that to happen. While The Adventures of Tintin will build on family audiences to succeed, the Oscar potential for War Horse will boost its numbers.
Oscar Prospects: Steven Spielberg’s latest war-set film is based on a prize winning novel with an already Tony-winning stage adaptation out there. When you deal with material this emotionally charged, there’s no way you cannot consider it a major player this year.

We Bought a Zoo

Premise: Trying to rebuild his family, a middle aged father buys a new home only to discover it is also the home of a derelict zoo.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: A film that’s likely to get lost in the holiday shuffle, Matt Damon’s family film doesn’t have the appeal of Tintin, Mission: Impossible or War Horse, but enough overflow from crowded houses may give it a nice tally.
Oscar Prospects: Unless its a critical and box office smash, the film is likely to be ignored.

December 28-30, 2011

The Iron Lady

Premise: An exploration of the rise to power of England’s legendary first female Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Margaret Thatcher isn’t exactly a figure that boosts American fervor. And being long removed from politics, those who go see the film outside of the Anglophile core will be those who want to see Meryl Streep in action. A certain Oscar nomination will increase the film’s potential but the historical nature of the film will depress attendance.
Oscar Prospects: Meryl Streep is earning buzz for her performance and is very likely to be nominated. A win, however, is slowly slipping from her grip.

Pariah

Premise: A teenager attempts to balance sexual expression with friendship, heartache and family.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: This little buzzed-about Sundance entry isn’t going to pick up the attention it needs to score more than a curiosity-based minor total.
Oscar Prospects: Focus Features is pushing the film, but with no recognizable names associated with the film, a lot of critics will have to boost the film’s chances for it to come close to Oscar consideration.

A Separation

Premise: Torn between an Alzheimer’s-ridden parent and a quality life for their child, two parents must decide whether to stay in Iran or leave.
Box Office Prospects: $750 K
Expectations: Foreign language films just don’t pique the curiosity of American audiences the way they used to. Don’t count on this film to do more than Oscar-embellished business. That is IF it’s nominated, a bit if at this juncture.
Oscar Prospects: It has potential in the Foreign Language Film category where it represents Iran. The subject tends to favor its acceptance by Academy voters if it can bypass any number of other similarly-themed films from more notable directors.